1-1 yesterday(thanks Javier, grrr). 3-2 season.
Have a great day, all!
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Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals: NRFI (+100)
“Last season, I enjoyed backing Spencer Strider in this column on a weekly basis, and it was quite profitable. Why not go back to the well in his first start of the 2023 season? When a healthy Strider is on the mound for the Braves, you have to lean toward a scoreless first inning. The second-year pitcher had a phenomenal season in 2022, as he was in the top 4% of all qualified starters in xERA, xWOBA, xSLG, strikeout percentage and expected batting average in 2022. I expect his whiff rate and low walk rate to remain consistent and Strider shouldn’t be challenged by this below average Nationals lineup.
On the other side, Atlanta certainly held an advantage over Patrick Corbin in the season opener — which was to be expected. However, the Braves have a tougher matchup on Saturday against young starter Josiah Gray. Gray has struggled in his first couple of seasons at the Major League level, but his underlying advanced metrics profiled much more favorably than his traditional stats would suggest. Furthermore, the trio of Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies are a combined 4-of-21 against Gray in his young career. While Gray may run into trouble later on, I like both pitchers to get off to solid starts on Saturday.”
Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres: YRFI (-110)
“On the West coast, the Rockies offense got off to a fast start in their Opening Day victory over the Padres on Thursday. I don’t expect that to change in Saturday’s contest, as Colorado has a great track record against Padres starter Michael Wacha. Kris Bryant enters the game with a .350 lifetime batting average against Wacha, including 8 extra-base hits in 40 plate appearances. He’ll be joined by Charlie Blackmon, who is a career .368 hitter off Wacha in his own right. Even putting aside his shaky history against the Rockies’ best hitters, Wacha’s advanced metrics last season were quite poor and the 31-year old should struggle once again in 2023.
Even if the Rockies are unable to score, we still have a good shot with the hosts. While the Padres struggled to score in their season opener, San Diego will get a much-needed favorable matchup against Jose Ureña on Saturday. The Rockies starter held an xERA of 4.94 a season ago, to go along with very poor strikeout percentage and expected batting average numbers. So while the likes of Manny Machado and Juan Soto have struggled in very small sample sizes against Ureña, I expect the Padres to break through early on.”
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Pitching matchup: Brandon Woodruff vs. Justin Steele
The NRFI hit for these teams in their series opener, and we are returning to the well.
Last season, Brewers’ starter Brandon Woodruff had an NRFI record of 11-3 in his starts on the road, while the NRFI hit in 13 of 14 of Justin Steele’s starts at Wrigley Field.
Chicago Whitesox vs. Houston Astros
Pitching matchup: Lucas Giolito vs. Jose Urquidy
Losing Jose Altuve to a broken thumb is more significant than some realize. He is like Thomas the Tank Engine, the little engine that makes everything run, especially at the top of Houston’s lineup.
In their first two games, the top third of the Astros’ lineup (Pena, Bregman, and Alvarez) have a combined four hits.
In the other dugout, the White Sox have had many chances to score but have not had the opportunity. Yes, it is still early, but through the first three days of the 2023 MLB season, Chicago is second in the league in hits (22) yet has only been able to score six runs.
Both starting pitchers are more than capable of controlling opposing offenses and going deep into this game.
In 2022, Lucas Giolito only allowed a first-inning run in five of his 17 road starts, while Jose Urquidy has allowed a run in four of his 13 home starts.