Thanks guys!
2-1 yesterday, I’ll take it. Another agreement between the two today. Won yesterday, let’s have a repeat. BOL everyone!
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Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros: NRFI (-111)
“Pitching will be the story of this series. It took until the 7th inning for a run to score in the Opening Day matchup between these two teams, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a repeat performance tonight. Friday night’s matchup will feature Lance Lynn for the White Sox and Cristian Javier for the Astros, and to me, that sounds like a scoreless first inning. Javier is a rising star in baseball who has solidified himself as the #2 starter on the Astros after an incredible 2022 season. The 26-year-old had a 2.54 ERA paired with a 2.43 xERA in 148.2 innings, but more importantly, he was nearly perfect in the first inning. Javier limited opponents to a .169 batting average with 41 strikeouts in the first frame last year.
Lance Lynn’s 2022 campaign was his worst season since he was a member of the Minnesota Twins. He struggled to find any rhythm and just seemed uncomfortable on the mound. However, Lynn participated in the World Baseball Classic for the United States as he was arguably their best pitcher. In 9 innings, he allowed 3 runs on 6 hits with 8 strikeouts against Canada and Venezuela. While Canada didn’t have the best showing in the tournament, Venezuela had an elite lineup. If Lynn can continue his success from the World Baseball Classic to Minute Maid Park, there should be a scoreless first inning.”
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins: NRFI (-138)
“The Opening Day starting pitching matchup between Sandy Alcantara and Max Scherzer lived up to the hype. Only 1 run scored in the first 5 innings as both pitchers were dealing. That started to change when the bullpens got involved, but fortunately for us, the arm barns are not necessary for this bet. Friday’s game between these NL East foes will feature Jesus Luzardo for the fish and David Peterson for the New York. This would have been a much more attractive bet if it was Justin Verlander for the Mets, but alas, Peterson will suffice.
Peterson was decent in 2022 with a 3.83 ERA in 105.2 innings and split time between the starting rotation and the bullpen. However, there’s no question as to where Peterson will be this season. The lefty was incredible in Spring Training, as he threw 12 scoreless innings while allowing just 1 hit. He struck out 13 batters and impressed the Mets enough to earn the Friday night start. Peterson will be countered by Luzardo, who has blossomed since being acquired from the Athletics. The lefty finished in the 87th percentile in strikeout rate and 88th percentile in whiff rate last year, and that was one of the many reasons he was so successful in the opening frame. Luzardo had a 1.50 ERA and limited opponents to a .164 batting average in the first inning in 2022. I expect a second straight scoreless first frame in Miami.”
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Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox Under 0.5 First Inning Runs
“It took these two sides until the bottom of the seventh inning to put a run on the board on Thursday evening, and I believe that we will be in for another slow start tonight. The White Sox will be handing the ball to Lance Lynn, who has already thrown competitive innings this year for Team USA in the WBC. Lynn is coming off of a very solid 2022 campaign, where he ranked around league average in Hard Hit%, xSLG, and xBA and ranked well above league average in K%, Whiff%, xERA, and Barrel%. He also posted a career-low in walks, offering a free pass to less than 4% of the batters he faced (good for 98th percentile in the MLB).
These numbers combine to tell us that Lynn is a pitcher that pounded the strike zone last year and was successful in missing bats and avoiding hard-hit balls, all of which are important to keep runs off the board against the top of the Astros lineup. I also like that Jose Altuve is not batting leadoff for the Astros right now, and Lynn already has a couple of starts under his belt from the WBC.
On the other side, the Astros will be starting the 26-year-old phenom Cristian Javier, who was debatably the best pitcher in all of baseball over the second half of the 2022 season, including the playoffs. Javier’s stuff was absolutely elite last year, as he ranked above the 90th percentile in xBA, xSLG, K%, and xERA. His Whiff% and Hard Hit% both ranked in the 82nd percentile – not too shabby either. He was the catalyst for two combined no-hitters last year, going at least 6 innings in games against the Yankees and the Phillies (in the WS, no big deal) where the Astros did not surrender a hit. Though Javier doesn’t necessarily light up the radar gun, his curveball and fastball spin rates are well above the MLB average, which is why he throws a pitch that has been dubbed the “Invisiball”
The White Sox lineup is known for mashing lefties, and they still did not put up a run against Framber Valdez, which makes me like the righty Javier even more in this spot. I’d be surprised if Javier surrenders any runs on Friday night, let alone in the first inning.”