Here we go! Got an agreement on the NRFI, hopefully that’s a good sign. BOL everyone.
FYI, the picks from BP are always NRFI unless otherwise stated.
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Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals: YRFI (+105)
“Last season, I enjoyed fading Patrick Corbin in this column on a weekly basis, and it was quite profitable. Why not go back to the well to start the 2023 season? Simply put, when Corbin is on the mound for the Nationals, you have to lean toward a run being scored in the first inning. Corbin had a poor 2021 season and his 2022 campaign was even worse. The left-hander’s advanced metrics were awful — ranking near the bottom of the league in xERA, xBA and xSLG — to say nothing of his 6.31 ERA over 31 starts. Corbin has especially struggled in spring training, allowing 10 runs and 21 hits in 18 innings this spring. Now, Corbin will take on an elite Braves lineup that has great lifetime numbers against him, especially at the top. Corbin’s struggles can be expected to continue in 2023, so Atlanta should get on the board early in this one.”
Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners: NRFI (-140)
“ One of the better games of Opening Day features a terrific starting pitching matchup, as Shane Bieber will take the mound for the Guardians while Luis Castillo gets the ball for the Mariners at home. It’s no secret that Seattle plays in a serious pitchers’ park, and that won’t change this season. Castillo is also coming off a season in which he finished with an ERA under 3.00, which was his best mark since the 2017 campaign. His stuff has been lively during spring training so look for Castillo to pick up right where he left off to start the year.
On the other side, Shane Bieber continues to post solid seasons as his career rolls on. And while his velocity and strikeout numbers were down a season ago, the Guardians ace is still one of the premier pitchers in the American League. Furthermore, the Mariners’ 5 best hitters are a combined 3-of-12 off Bieber in their careers, so he should be able to get off to a fast start in what should be a low-scoring affair in Seattle.”
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Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros
“On a day full of marque pitching matchups, this may be one of the best on paper. Framber Valdez will take the ball for the World Champs, and he is coming off back-to-back elite seasons. The left-hander relies on elite groundball rates, which makes it a bit difficult to project how the new shift rules will impact him. However, he allowed a 0.276 wOBA the first time through the order in 2022, and while the White Sox offense is solid on paper, they do not strike enough fear in me to push me off this bet.
For the White Sox, they are sending ace Dylan Cease to the mound. Cease had the best season of his career, posting elite K rates and limiting homers which put him in the running for the CY Young. He is the opposite style of pitcher to Valdez, with high FB rates and lots of swing-and-miss. Similar to Valdez, he posted a 0.275 wOBA the first time through the order in 2022. The Astros are still defending champs, but their offense doesn’t look quite the same as it did last year. With the injury to Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena likely takes over the leadoff spot, and while he had a special postseason run, that loss might hurt the offense a bit more than we think on paper. The Astros still have Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, and new addition Jose Abreu hitting 2-4 in the order, so the offense is still great, but I’ll take my chances that Cease can pull off a clean first frame.“
Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners
“ If the first pitching match does not excite you enough, maybe this one will. Luis Castillo takes the ball for the Mariners. After a down 2021 season, Castillo bounced back in a big way and actually posted one of the best seasons of his career. After a career in one of the most HR-prone parks in baseball, he was traded to Seattle, where he gets a massive park improvement. After the trade, his HR numbers were actually slightly worse, but that was more of a small sample problem than anything else. In 2022 his first time through the order wOBA allowed was 0.268. He gets to face a Guardians offense that’s mostly unchanged from last season at the top, except for the addition of Josh Bell. While the top of the order contains OBP threats, the power is lacking, and they may find it difficult to string enough hits together to score off Castillo.
Cleveland is sending their own ace to the mound in Shane Bieber. While Bieber has seen his velocity dip in the last two seasons, his dominance has not wavered. Last year saw a big drop in his K/9, but he limited walks even better than in the last few years allowing him to continue to post elite numbers. He had the best first time through the order wOBA of the group at 0.227. Despite their unquestioned superstar at the top of the order in Julio Rodriguez, I am lower than most on the Mariners’ offense. There are a number of question marks, and a talented pitcher like Shane Bieber will be able to exploit those weaknesses to his advantage.”