For what it’s worth, yesterday my red hot June continued to sizzle. I made 8 bets and cashed 6 of them. That left me +7.44 units for the day, +115.09 units for the month of June, and +66.11 units for the season. Considering that at one point last month, I was down more than 100 units, I’ll certainly take it.
My first loser was a 2-unit play on the Blue Jays ML. Jays’ starter Hyun-Jin Ryu limited the Yanks to 2 runs on 5 hits over 6 innings, but also uncharacteristically walked a season-high 4. The Yanks hit 3 HRs and rallied from a 5-3 deficit in the 7th and pushed across the winning run in the 8th, against the Jays shaky bullpen.
My other loser was a ML parlay with the Padres and the Giants. The Padres jumped out to a quick 4-0 lead and looked like a sure winner with ace Yu Darvish on the hill. However, the Dbacks, loser of 11 straight raced out to an early 7-0 lead over the Giants. It looked like the woeful Dbacks would be the team to kill my parlay, but it actually didn’t turn out that way. The Rockies rallied for 4 runs off Darvish, 2 in the 4th and 2 more in the 6th and rolled to an 8-4 win against a supposedly elite Padre bullpen, while the Giants came all the way back and won it 9-8 with 4 8th inning runs against a dreadful Dbacks pen.
As for my winners, the Mets rallied from an early 2-0 deficit and led the Cubs 3-2 after 5, behind a solid outing by Tajuan Walker. The White Sox got 2 early runs off young Shane McClanahan and Dalleas Keuchel and the Sox pen made sure that was enough cashing both my 1st 5 and full game ML plays on the White Sox. The Rangers didn’t beat the Astros, but they led 2-0 after 5 giving me a 1st 5 winner with the Rangers and Kyle Gibson. The same was true of the Marlins, who lost to the Cards 2-1, but led 1-0 after 5 to cash my 1st 5 on Marlins with Trevor Rogers. Finally, the Dodgers scored a couple of late runs to beat the Phils 5-3, cashing my ML dodger play.
We have a full slate of games today, including several day games, so let’s get right to it. I’m going mostly the parlay route today. Here’s the Card so far. I might add another game or two tonight.
Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
(+137)
|
2
|
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
NYM 1st 5 ML
|
-109
|
2
|
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
HTN 1st 5 ML
|
(+111)
|
2
|
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
HTN ML
|
(+114
|
2
|
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
(+141)
|
2
|
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
SF ML
|
(+137)
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
NYM 1st 5 ML
|
(+106)
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
HTN 1st 5 ML
|
(+128)
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
HTN ML
|
(+131)
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
(+160)
|
2
|
|
NYY 1st 5 ML
|
SF ML
|
(+155)
|
2
|
|
NYM 1st 5 ML
|
HTN 1st 5 ML
|
(+128)
|
2
|
|
NYM 1st 5 ML
|
HTN ML
|
(+131)
|
2
|
|
NYM 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
(+160)
|
2
|
|
NYM 1st 5 ML
|
SF ML
|
(+155)
|
2
|
|
HTN 1st 5 ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
(+131)
|
2
|
|
HTN 1st 5 ML
|
SF ML
|
(+128)
|
2
|
|
HTN ML
|
SF 1st 5 ML
|
(+135)
|
2
|
|
HTN ML
|
SF ML
|
(+132)
|
2
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sides
|
|
MIA 1st 5
|
-126
|
2
|
|
|
CHI WS 1st 5 ML
|
-140
|
2
|
|
|
CGI WS ML
|
-135
|
1
|
Here are write-ups for the afternoon games.
MIA @ STL
Starting Pitcher
1:15
|
SP 2021
|
|
GS 50+
|
GS 50-
|
GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
MIA
|
Alcantara - R
|
|
(11/14)
|
(3/14)
|
56
|
1.08
|
3.39
|
2.97
|
3.46
|
3.65
|
3.83
|
0.277
|
0.275
|
8.47
|
2.54
|
STL
|
Oviedo - R
|
|
(0/6)
|
(5/6)
|
38
|
1.52
|
5.72
|
5.47
|
5.81
|
5.18
|
5.30
|
0.346
|
0.362
|
7.94
|
5.72
|
Edge – MIA big
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
L
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
MIA
|
0.49
|
12
|
1.20
|
6
|
3.82
|
11
|
67.4%
|
24
|
2.4
|
5
|
13
|
15
|
13
|
14
|
23.0%
|
23
|
7.6%
|
1
|
STL
|
0.52
|
17
|
1.43
|
26
|
4.44
|
20
|
70.1%
|
17
|
1.1
|
14
|
20
|
6
|
11
|
9
|
22.8%
|
25
|
13.8%
|
30
|
Edge – MIA
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
MIA
|
3.92
|
24
|
0.296
|
24
|
92
|
19
|
-24.3
|
21
|
0.137
|
29
|
-0.7
|
17
|
8.0%
|
24
|
26.3%
|
26
|
STL
|
4.15
|
19
|
0.300
|
22
|
92
|
19
|
-19.7
|
17
|
0.157
|
16
|
4.1
|
6
|
8.2%
|
20
|
23.0%
|
9
|
Edge STL, but close
Conclusion: After a 4-2 win on Monday, the Cards took game 2 of this series last night 2-1, as Paul Goldschmidt hit a game-winning HR in the 9th and drove in both STL runs. Fortunately, I only has the Marlins 1st 5 ML, so I cashed my bet.
Offensively, while the Cards do hold most of the edges, they are almost all by very small margins, and both teams have the exact same wRC+.
As for the two bullpens, that’s also close, but of the two pens, it’s the Marlins who hold most of the edges, albeit by small margins, including the better R/IP, WHIP, ERA, save rate, K rate and walk rate.
That leaves the two starting pitchers and there I give the Marlins a huge edge with Sandy Alcantara facing Johan Oviedo.
Alcantara has started 14 games for the Marlins, with 11 grading as above average and just 3 grading as below average. Alcantara has given up 34 runs (22 earned) on 68 hits and 24 walks over 85 innings, while striking out 80. He has given up more than 3 runs just 3 times. The result is an excellent WHIP, ERA, and wOBA. Alcantara’s ERA metrics are totally consistent with his fine ERA and his expected wOBA is almost identical to his actual one. Alcantara has a solid 23.4% K rate, and compliments it with a fine 52.4% GB rate and a decent 7% walk rate and a low 29.8% hard hit rate.
Oviedo has started 6 games for the Cards this season and has yet to deliver even 1 above average start. He doe have 1 that graded as average and 5 that graded as below average. Oviodo has given up 19 runs (18 earned) on 25 hit and a very high 18 walks over 28.1 innings, with 20 Ks. His WHIP, ERA and wOBA are all very high and his ERA metrics are just as bad, telling me that his high WHIP and ERA are well deserved. His expected Woba is even higher than his already high wOBA. Oviedo’s 19.5 K rate is nothing special, but his 14.1% walk rate is awful. He only struck out 2 more than he’s walked.
There’s just nothing to like about Oviedo and a lot to like about Alcantara, so I’m going back to the same well taday, that I drank out of yesterday.
Pick – MIA 1st 5 ML (-126 for 2 units)
TB @ CHI WS
Starting Pitchers
2:10
|
SP 2021
|
|
GS +50
|
GS -50
|
GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
TB
|
Yarbrough - L
|
|
(5/9)
|
(4/9)
|
48
|
1.08
|
3.63
|
3.83
|
4.22
|
4.15
|
4.07
|
0.300
|
0.310
|
7.38
|
1.50
|
CHI WS
|
Giolito - R
|
|
(9/13)
|
(4/13)
|
54
|
1.11
|
3.81
|
3.25
|
4.23
|
3.45
|
3.38
|
0.299
|
0.287
|
11.42
|
2.97
|
Edge – CHI WS
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
L
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
TB
|
0.39
|
3
|
1.16
|
4
|
3.08
|
3
|
76.1%
|
4
|
2.4
|
5
|
21
|
8
|
25
|
11
|
25.1%
|
12
|
8.3%
|
3
|
CHI WS
|
0.45
|
6
|
1.25
|
7
|
3.58
|
7
|
73.6%
|
8
|
3.2
|
1
|
19
|
12
|
12
|
12
|
28.4%
|
2
|
8.4%
|
4
|
Edge – TB
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
TB
|
4.97
|
6
|
0.313
|
13
|
104
|
9
|
12.3
|
9
|
0.163
|
12
|
0.9
|
13
|
10.3%
|
3
|
27.1%
|
29
|
CHI WS
|
5.00
|
5
|
0.329
|
4
|
111
|
3
|
38.8
|
2
|
0.154
|
18
|
5.6
|
4
|
10.5%
|
2
|
23.4%
|
13
|
Edge – CHI WS
Conclusion: These two teams, along with the Giants, have the best records in baseball, with just a half a game separating them. They split the first two games of this series with the Rays winning 5-2 on Monday and the White Sox winning 3-0 last night, behind a strong outing by Dallas keuchel.
Offensively, if you just look at the overall numbers, the White Sox have the better offense,but it’s close, and that’s still the case when we factor in the handedness of the two starting pitchers. The White Sox, as everybody knows, have absolutely mauled lefties, with a .347 wOBA (ranks #2), a 126 wRC+ and s9.9 ORAA (both ranked #1). While the Rays struggle against lefties they are very good against righties, with a .323 wOBA (rank #2), a 110 wRC+ (rank #5) and a 16.1 wRAA (rank #6). The White Sox get the edge, but it is close.
As for the two bullpens, the Rays get a clear edge here as the Rays pen allows fewer runs per innings pitched, with a lower WHIP and ERA, as well as a higher strand rater.
That leaves the two starting pitchers, and I’m giving the edged to Lucas Giolito over Ryan Yarbrough.
Yarbrough has started 9 games for the Rays this season, with 4 grading above average and 5 grading below average. The positive thing is that 3 of Yarbrough’ s4 above average starts were his last 3 outings. So he’s certainly pitched better recently. Between his 9 starts and 4 appearances out of the Rays’ pen, Yarbrough has given up 37 runs (29 earned) on 66 hits (11 HRs) and 12 walks over 72 innings with 59 Ks. His WHIP and ERA are both good and his wOBA is lightly lower than league average. However, his ERA metrics are all higher than his actual ERA and his expected wOBA is slightly higher than his actual one. Yarbrough doesn’t miss many bats. His 19.9% K rate is very mediocre, but he doesn’t walk many either, with just a 4.1% walk rate. There’s nothing aewful about Yarbrough, just not much that’s exceptional either.
Giolito has started 13 games for the White Sox, with 9 grading as above average, including 4 of his last 5, with 4 that graded as below average. However, that includes one really dreadful April start at the Red Sox, in which Giolito was absolutely hammered to the tune of 8 runs (7 earned) on 8 hits and 2 walks in just 1 inning. Giolito had nothing that day and didn’t last very long. Even with that terrible outing on his resume ans skewing his numbers, Giolito still has a good WHIP, ERA and wOBA, and his ERA metrics are mostly a little better than his solid ERA. Giolito’s 31.1% K rate is still elite, but his 8.1% walk rate is still high.
I expect the White Sox to to put up some run against Yarbrough, a mediocre lefty, today. I get the better offense and the better starting pitcher.
Pick – CHI WS 1st 5 ML (-140 for 2 units) and full game ML (-135 for 1 unit)
SD @ COL
Starting Pitchers
3:10
|
SP 2021
|
|
GS +50
|
GS -50
|
GS
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
xERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
xwOBA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
SD
|
Snell - L
|
|
(6/13)
|
(7/13)
|
47
|
1.47
|
4.97
|
4.67
|
3.92
|
3.45
|
3.9
|
0.321
|
0.339
|
13.03
|
5.43
|
COL
|
Freeland - L
|
|
(0/4)
|
(3/4)
|
24
|
2.12
|
9.00
|
7.88
|
9.40
|
6.40
|
6.03
|
0.495
|
0.421
|
4.76
|
4.76
|
Edge – SD
Bullpens
Team
|
R/IP
|
Rank
|
WHIP
|
Rank
|
ERA
|
Rank
|
LOB%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
SV
|
BS
|
W
|
L
|
K%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
SD
|
0.36
|
2
|
1.10
|
1
|
2.54
|
1
|
81.2%
|
1
|
1.8
|
11
|
22
|
8
|
22
|
11
|
27.7%
|
5
|
9.0%
|
9
|
COL
|
0.65
|
28
|
1.54
|
30
|
5.39
|
29
|
68.2%
|
23
|
-0.1
|
26
|
10
|
9
|
9
|
12
|
22.1%
|
28
|
11.4%
|
25
|
Edge – SD big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
SDP
|
4.40
|
14
|
0.302
|
19
|
94
|
16
|
-10.2
|
14
|
0.140
|
27
|
9.2
|
2
|
10.2%
|
6
|
22.3%
|
3
|
COL
|
4.21
|
17
|
0.301
|
21
|
76
|
30
|
-62.3
|
30
|
0.144
|
25
|
10.5
|
1
|
8.0%
|
24
|
23.5%
|
14
|
Edge – None
Conclusion: The Rockies took game 1 of this series 3-2 on Monday and rallied late for an 8-4 win last night.
The Padres problems are pretty simple. They’re just not hitting. They’ve scored just 14 runs in their last 7 games. The Rockies offensive numbers, on the other hand, are deceptive because they are so much worse on the road. Still, the overall numbers, while very close, seem to give the Padres a small offensive edge. Specifically the wRC+ numbers, which are park adjusted give the Padres an edge. Based on what I saw over the first two games of this series, I’ll call it even and move on.
As for the bullpens, the Padres pen is supposed to be elite, but this unit got mhammered last night for 4 runs on 6 hits and a walk over the final 3 innings last night? while the Rockies pen, which is supposed to suck, contribute 3 wcoreless innings last night. This should be a huge mismatch, and last night it was, just not quite as I expected. I say that it was an aberration and I’m looking for regression to the norm today..
That leaves the two starting pitchers, and that looks like a mismatch too with Blake Snell squaring off again Kyle Freeland.
Snell has struggled a lot since joining the Padres. He does have 6 above average starts, but also 7 below average ones. His WHIP and ERA are high and his wOBA is higher than league average. However, Snell’s ERA metrics are all lower than his unsightly ERA and that’s an encouraging sign, but his expected wOBA is higher that his actual one and that’s not a real good sign. Snell’s K rate is elite, but he’s had a big walk problem, giving up 35 walks in his 58 innings. I suspect that Snell is having difficulty adjusting to NL umps. He doesn’t know them and they don’t know him, so unlike in the AL, Snell’s not getting the benefit of the doubt on close calls with his big breaking ball. I expect that will eventually normalize and Snell’s walk rate will get better, but I can’t say when or by how much.
As bad as Snell has performed this season, Freeland’s been infinitely worse. Kyle Freeland (shoulder) came off the IL four starts ago, and has been just dreadful, without a single above average start. He has 3 below average ones and 1 that graded as average, Freeland has given up 18 runs (17 eared) on 27 hits (7 HRs) and 9 walks over 17 innings with 9 Ks. That’s not a typo, 18 runs, 27 hits, 7 HRs and 9 walks in 17 innings! That would explain why Freeland’s WHIP is over 2.00 with an ERA of 9.00 and a wOBA and xwOBA over .400. UGLY!
I can’t take COL with Freeland so by default I’ll take the Padres 1st 5 and hope that the thin COL air gives some life to the Padres dead bats.
Pick – SD 1st 5 ML in a series of parlays