For what it’s worth, after I posted yesterday’s play, I realized that I neglected to update my results. Going into last night’s game, I was -7.03 units for the postseason, and +22.96 units for the season. Last night, I was all in on the Dodgers with 3 units on the 1st 5 ML and another 3 units on the full game ML. Both were winners, leaving me +3.96 units for the day, -3.08 units for the postseason, and +26.91 units for the season.
In Game 1 of this 2020 World Series, we saw a shaky starting pitcher get lit up as he passed the 100-pitch mark. To the relief of Dodgers fans, that starting pitcher wasn’t Clayton Kershaw. It was Tyler Glasnow. Krerdshaw, the three-time Cy Young winner with the rocky postseason record was superb last night, giving up just 1 run (a solo 5th inning HR) on 2 hits and 1 walk 0ver 6 innings with 8 Ks and 7 GBs, as he dominated the Rays. Meanwhile, the Dodgers lineup waited out Glasnow and erupted for two 4th inning runs and four more in the 5th, cruising to an 8-3 win. After allowing two of the first three Rays he faced to reach base on a single and a walk, Kershaw retired 13 straight Rays, never tossing more than 14 pitches in any of his other five innings, and three times throwing just 11 or fewer. His 92.5 mph first-inning FB velocity was just 0.1 off his season high.
Through the first three innings, Glasnow matched zeroes with Kershaw, working around a one-out walk in the 1st, a two-out single in the 2nd, and a two-out walk in the 3rd. His FB clocked in as high as 100.8 mph, and he rang up 5 Ks. However, in the 4th, Glasnow issued a lead-off walk and one out later, Cody Bellinger pounced on a 98.2 mph first-pitch Glasnow FB and the Dodgers led 2-0. Another Glasnow walk and a wild pitch put another Dodger in scoring position. Glasnow got back to back Ks to end the inning, but he was already at 86 pitches entering the 5th. The Rays cut the Dodgers’ lead to 1 in the top of the 5th, but another Glasnow walk to Mookie Betts was the beeginging of the end for the Rays and Glasnow, as Betts proceeded to put on a baserunning show. He stole 2nd, and after another walk, led a double steal making the Dodgers the first team to steal three bases in a single World Series inning since 1912. Betts then scored on a chopper to first base, eluding an attempted tag at the plate. At this point, trailing 3-1, Glasnow had now thrown 106 pitches and probably should have been pulled. His 6 walks were the most in a World Series game since the Cardinals’ Edwin Jackson walked 7 Rangers in 2011. Glasnow then gave up a single into CF making it 4-1 Dodgers. Finally, out went Glasnow, after 112 pitches, and in came lefty Ryan Yarbrough. After getting a quick pop up out, Yarbrough gave up back to back RBI singles to make it 6-1 and seal the Rays fate. All six runs were charged to Glasnow
Enough on Gam 1. Let’s move on to Game 2.
TB v LAD
Starting Pitchers
8:09
|
2020
|
|
GOOD
|
BAD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
HC%
|
TB
|
Snell - L (6-4)
|
|
(9/15)
|
(2/15)
|
1.20
|
3.24
|
4.35
|
3.06
|
3.57
|
0.307
|
11.34
|
3.24
|
1.80
|
0.286
|
89.1%
|
49.2%
|
34.4%
|
LAD
|
Gonsolin - R (2-3)
|
|
(4/9)
|
(1/9)
|
0.84
|
2.31
|
2.29
|
3.80
|
3.68
|
0.222
|
8.87
|
1.35
|
0.39
|
0.250
|
72.6%
|
34.2%
|
30.3%
|
Edge –
Bullpens
Edge – None
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
HC %
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
TB
|
4.74
|
13
|
0.325
|
13
|
109
|
9
|
10.2
|
13
|
0.187
|
7
|
34.7%
|
6
|
10.7%
|
4
|
26.9%
|
29
|
LAD
|
5.83
|
1
|
0.350
|
2
|
122
|
1
|
58.2
|
2
|
0.227
|
1
|
41.9%
|
1
|
9.8%
|
12
|
20.3%
|
2
|
Edge – LAD
Conclusion: These two teams had the two best records in baseball in this crazy season. After sweeping the Blue Jays in the AL Wild Card round, the Rays survived a really tough 5 game ALDS series and a surprisingly tough 7 game series against the Astros. After sweeping the Brewers in the NL Wild Card round and the Padres in the NLDS, The Dodgers fought back from 2-0 and 3-1 deficits against the Braves, winning three straight games to earn the NL berth in this World Series. The Dodgers took game 1 yesterday behind a strong outing by Clayton Kershaw, while the Dodgers pounced on a shaky Tyler Glasnow for six 4th and 5th inning runs to seal the Dodger win.
On paper, offensively, this looked like a mismatch and still does. During the regular season, the Dodgers scored 1.09 more runs per game than the Rays, with a wOBA that was 25 points higher, a wRC+ that was 13 points better, a wRAA that was 48 points better, an ISO that was 40 points better, and a 7.2% higher hard contact rate. In this postseason the Dodgers have averages 1.43 more runs per game than the Rays. Offensively, with the exception of striking out way too much (rank #29), the Rays were a little above average in pretty much every other offensive category this season. That’s not bad, but, with the exception of being a little light on walks (rank #12) the Dodgers ranked either 1st or 2nd in every other significant offensive category. Since the Rays lack the traditional MVP-caliber sluggers who feast on FBs, the Rays had one of baseball’s worst records in 2020 against FBs, ranking 26th. That would certainly explain their 29th ranked K rate. The problem for the Rays here is that the Dodgers have as many as eight pitchers whose heaters averaged 95 mph or better. As for the Dodgers, It should be noted that they aren’’t quite as good against lefties. They rank 8th in wOBA (.335), wRC+ (113), and wRAA (8.2). That’s still very good, but not top 1 or 2. Last night, the Dodgers put up 8 runs on 10 hits and 7 walks. The Rays were held to 3 runs on 6 hits and 1 walk. This Dodgers offense is elite and much better than the Rays mediocre offense.
As for the bullpen matchup, both of these bullpens were very good during the regular season. The Dodger pen won 1 more game than the Rays, but the Rays had a 23.7% higher save rate. However, the Dodgers had a 1.7% higher overall strand rate and allowed 0.06 fewer runs per inning pitched. They also had a 0.15 better WHIP, a 0.63 better ERA, better ERA metrics, a 0.8% better K rate and a 0.7% lower walk rate. In the postseason, both of these bullpens have been less effective that they were in the regular season. I suppose that’s not really all that surprising in this era where getting five good innings from a starting pitcher is considered a good start. As a rule, bullpens tend to get used more in the playoffs and this season with no days off for travel, even the very best bullpens will feel the strain. The Rays pen has posted a 1-2 record with a perfect 4 saves in 4 save opportunities. They have given up 31 runs (27 earned) on 70 hits and 31 walks over 67.1 innings with 59 Ks. That translates to a high 1.50 WHIP, a solid 3.61 ERA and a 0.40 runs allowed per inning pitched. By contrast, the Dodger pen has posted a 3-1 record with a perfect 5 saves in 5 save opportunities, giving up 24 runs (21 earned) on 48 hits and 14 walks over 60.2 innings, with 49 Ks. That translates to a solid 1.22 WHIP and 3.73 ERA, with 0.47 runs allowed per inning pitched.
As mentioned back in my October 8 post for the final game of the Dodger/Padre series, my concern with the Dodger pen was closer Kenley Jansen and his drop of about 1 mph in velocity. In the final game of the NLDS series against the Padres, Jansen gave up two 9th inning runs on 3 hits and 2 walks in just two thirds of an inning, and needed 30 pitches to get two outs! Joe Kelly had to come in and get the final out to preserve the Dodgers win. Jansen has been the Dodgers' primary closer since 2012 but has shown signs of decline over the past couple of seasons. In 2019, he saved 33 games but posted a career-worst 3.71 ERA. This season, Jansen started strong but gave up 7 earned runs in back-to-back outings in September. He was averaging 93-94 mph earlier this season, but rarely got above 90 mph in his postseason outings. In fairness, it should be noted that after a 10 day laoff, Jansen did pitch a perfect 9th, getting the save in the Dodgers 3-1 win in Game 6 on the NLCS.
It should be noted that the Rays did not play on Sunday, giving them an extra day of rest for their pen. My inclination is to simply say that both of these pens are both very good and call it even.
That brings us to the two starting pitchers and tonight, I think that the Rays have the edge here.
Blake Snell was handled with kid gloves by the Rays this season. He started 11 games during the regular season and 4 more in the postseason. Snell has a 6-4 record with 9 good starts and just 2 poor one in his last 12 outings. He wasn’t bad early on either, but was limited to a max of 3 innings in each of his first three starts despite not allowing any runs in two of them. In his last 12 starts, Snell gave up a total of 19 runs (18 earned) on 45 hits and 22 walks over 56.2 innings with 66 Ks. His 1.20 WHIP and 3.24 ERA were both very good, as were his ERA metrics which were just a little higher than his ERA. That’s probably because of his 89.1% strand rate which is about 10% higher than his career rate. Another factor is the 10 HRs that he gave up which was close to 1 HR/9 higher than his career 0.93. Snell’s 47.4% K rate was still elite and he generated a solid 49.2% GB rate as well, but his 10.5% walk rate was his highest since 2007. He also struggled with the long ball giving up not only the 10 regular season HRs, but 4 more in his four postseason starts. In those 4 starts, Snell has given up 7 runs on 16 hits and 10 walks over 19.2 innings. That translates to a 1.32 WHIP and a 3.20 ERA.
Tony Gonsolin pitched incredibly well for the Dodgers this season. He started 8 rgular season games for the Dodgers, posting a 2-2 rec.rd with 4 g6od starts and just 1 poor one. In those 8 starts, Gonsolin gave up a total of 13 runs (12 earned) on 32 hits and 7 walks over 46.2 innings with 43 Ks. He delivered a superb 0.84 WHIP and 2.31 ERA with solid ERA metrics and a fine .222 wOBA. His 26.1% K rate was solid, especially when combined with his 4% walk rate. He also didn’t give up a lot of hard contact (30.3%) or HRs (2). However, Gonsolin’s postseason experience is very limited and not all that good. He has made 2 postseason appearances, including 1 start, giving up 7 runs on 5 hits (2 HRs) and 6 walks over 6.1 innings for a lousy 1.77 postseason WHIP and 9.95 postseason ERA. He does, however throw a 95 mph heater that the Rays could struggle with.
Snell is a quality lefty and the Dodgers don’t fare quite as well against lefties, so that’s a plus. However. his propensity for giving up walks and HRs is a legitimate concern facing a Dodger team that led the league with 118 HRs, 15 more than the 2nd place Braves. Of course, coming off an excellent regular season, Gonsolin has also struggled in his two postseason outings, but he does possess that 95 mph heater, and the Rays struggle with FBs.
I’ve been on the Dodger bandwagon most of this season because I thought that they were the most talented team in baseball and that they were legitimate favorites to win it al. Recently, I’ve had some second thoughts. I thought that the lack of starting pitching depth and closer Jansen’s struggles might prevent them from getting to the World Series again, but here they are, in the World Series and favored to win it all.
These two offenses are not close. The Rays are a little above average, but the Dodgers are elite. As for the bullpens, they were both very good during the regular season, but both have shown cracks in this postseason. I’m still somewhat concerned about the whole Jansen thing and the effect it could have on the Dodgers’ pen. Still, despite Jansen’s problems, the Dodgers pen really hasn’t performed any worse in this postseason than the Rays pen has, so I’m calling the bullpens even. Both teams are excellent defensively. The Dodgers should have a small edge because this is their second straight series at Globe Life. By contrast, the Rays have never played at Globe Life before. By the same token, the Rays should have an edge in the managerial department. Kevin Cash is the best in-game manager in baseball. I’ll charitably say that Dave Roberts is not.
I loved the Dodgers last night. They have the much better offense and last night, they also had the better starting pitcher. Tonight, while the Dodgers still have the clearly better offense, I think that the Rays have the better starting pitcher. The Rays need this game. It’s not quite a must win, but with Walker Buehler on deck for the Dodgers tomorrow, it’s close to being one. I’ll take a shot on Snell for 5 innings at a nice plus money price.
Pick – TB 1st 5 ML (+125 for 2 units)