For what it’s worth, this has absolutely been the most insane and crazy MLB season that I have ever experienced. Last Friday I had one of those rare days when almost everything goes right. It was exhilarating and wonderful, but fleeting. It never lasts. Inevitably, what goes up must come down. Wednesday, I had one of those equally rare days when almost everything goes wrong. I ended up dropping a whopping 15.33 units. Jacob deGrom and Lucas Giolito both had to get beat up. Jack Odorizzi had to come off the IL and pitch well right off the bat, Kyle Gibson had to pitch well period, and the Astros had to not score at all. It was unlikely that all that would happen on the same night and it wad damned depressing for sure when it did. Of course, that shouldn’t last either. That’s just the way it goes. I trust my process and if the process is sound, I should bounce back. I always have. However, I did not expect such a huge and dramatic bounce back this fast, certainly not just one day after flaming out, but that’s exactly what happened. For the second time in a week, I couldn’t lose! I’ve gone seasons without having that kind of day twice. Yesterday, I pushed with the Twins 1st 5 and won with the Rays (game 1) 1st 5 and full game ML, the Yankees 1st 5 and full game ML, the Indians 1st 5 and full game ML, the Astros 1st 5 ML, and the Dodgers ML. I picked up an incredible 34.52 units. That is not a typo, +34.52 units. It leaves me an amazing +55.68 units for the season! Maybe I should quit while I’m way ahead. After all, there’s only one way to go from there. I’m a strong believer in regression to the norm. I think that I’m a good capper, but not that good.
I’ll try to get yesterday out of my mind. As great as it was, I really need to focus on today and put yesterday in the rearview mirror. There are definitely several games that I really like. The question is whether I’m willing to tempt fate by going hog wild on parlays again. My answer is hell yes! I’m a recreational bettor. I’m not playing with the grocery money. I know going in that I won’t win them all again tonight, but I do trust my process and will be looking for more Ws than Ls.
I apologize in advance, but I finally got my internet provider changed, today. The difference is night and day, but it took all morning to get the damn thing done. I doubt I’ll have to much in the way of write ups, just the stats and picks. Sorry about that. Here’s my parlay card:
2-Team ML Parlays
|
Team #1
|
Team #2
|
Odds
|
Units
|
|
MIA 1st 5 ML
|
CLEV 1st 5 ML
|
127
|
1
|
|
MIA 1st 5 ML
|
CLEV full game ML
|
127
|
1
|
|
MIA 1st 5 ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
140
|
1
|
|
MIA 1st 5 ML
|
ATL full game ML
|
153
|
1
|
|
MIA 1st 5 ML
|
NYY ML
|
129
|
1
|
|
MIA 1st 5 ML
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
130
|
1
|
|
MIA 1st 5 ML
|
TB full game ML
|
131
|
1
|
|
MIA 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
124
|
1
|
|
MIA 1st 5 ML
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
147
|
1
|
|
MIA 1st 5 ML
|
SD full game ML
|
137
|
1
|
|
CLEV 1st 5
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
134
|
1
|
|
CLEV 1st 5
|
ATL full game ML
|
147
|
1
|
|
CLEV 1st 5
|
NYY ML
|
124
|
1
|
|
CLEV 1st 5
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
124
|
1
|
|
CLEV 1st 5
|
TB full game ML
|
125
|
1
|
|
CLEV 1st 5
|
LAD ML
|
118
|
1
|
|
CLEV 1st 5
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
141
|
1
|
|
CLEV 1st 5
|
SD full game ML
|
131
|
1
|
|
CLEV full game ML
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
133
|
1
|
|
CLEV full game ML
|
ATL full game ML
|
146
|
1
|
|
CLEV full game ML
|
NYY ML
|
123
|
1
|
|
CLEV full game ML
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
124
|
1
|
|
CLEV full game ML
|
TB full game ML
|
124
|
1
|
|
CLEV full game ML
|
LAD ML
|
118
|
1
|
|
CLEV full game ML
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
140
|
1
|
|
CLEV full game ML
|
SD full game ML
|
131
|
1
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
NYY ML
|
136
|
1
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
137
|
1
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
TB full game ML
|
137
|
1
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
130
|
1
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
154
|
1
|
|
ATL 1st 5 ML
|
SD full game ML
|
144
|
1
|
|
ATL full game ML
|
NYY ML
|
149
|
1
|
|
ATL full game ML
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
150
|
1
|
|
ATL full game ML
|
TB full game ML
|
150
|
1
|
|
ATL full game ML
|
LAD ML
|
143
|
1
|
|
ATL full game ML
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
168
|
1
|
|
ATL full game ML
|
SD full game ML
|
157
|
1
|
|
NYY ML
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
126
|
1
|
|
NYY ML
|
TB full game ML
|
127
|
1
|
|
NYY ML
|
LAD ML
|
120
|
1
|
|
NYY ML
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
143
|
1
|
|
NYY ML
|
SD full game ML
|
133
|
1
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
LAD ML
|
121
|
1
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
143
|
1
|
|
TB 1st 5 ML
|
SD full game ML
|
134
|
1
|
|
TB full game ML
|
LAD ML
|
121
|
1
|
|
TB full game ML
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
144
|
1
|
|
TB full game ML
|
SD full game ML
|
134
|
1
|
|
LAD ML
|
SD 1st 5 ML
|
137
|
1
|
|
LAD ML
|
SD full game ML
|
127
|
1
|
WASH @ MIA
Starting Pitchers
5:10
|
2020
|
|
GOOD
|
BAD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
HC%
|
WASH
|
Fedde - R (1-3)
|
|
(2/6)
|
(3/6)
|
1.61
|
5.06
|
6.76
|
5.69
|
5.93
|
0.356
|
4.10
|
4.58
|
1.93
|
0.260
|
78.7%
|
53.0%
|
38.5%
|
MIA
|
Sanchez - R (3-1)
|
|
(5/5)
|
(0/5)
|
0.91
|
1.69
|
3.26
|
3.38
|
3.46
|
0.244
|
8.16
|
1.41
|
0.84
|
0.259
|
93.3%
|
59.5%
|
31.0%
|
Edge – MIA big
Bullpens
Edge – WASH
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WASH
|
4.66
|
15
|
0.324
|
13
|
99
|
15
|
6.2
|
27
|
0.167
|
19
|
33.9%
|
20
|
8.2%
|
20
|
20.3%
|
2
|
MIA
|
4.46
|
20
|
0.309
|
22
|
96
|
18
|
-17.1
|
20
|
0.144
|
24
|
34.1%
|
18
|
9.0%
|
15
|
25.3%
|
26
|
Edge – WASH close
Conclusion: The Marlins are fighting for a playoff spot. The Nats are looking to next season. The Marlins have the better starting pitcher. I’ll take Sanchez for 5 innings.
Pick – MIA 1st 5 ML
CLEV @ DET
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
2020
|
|
GOOD
|
BAD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
HC%
|
CLEV
|
Plesac - R (3-2)
|
|
(5/6)
|
(1/6)
|
0.78
|
2.20
|
3.81
|
3.67
|
3.60
|
0.239
|
8.56
|
0.66
|
1.54
|
0.214
|
99.1%
|
37.6%
|
30.0%
|
DET
|
Fulmer - R (0-2)
|
|
(0/8)
|
(5/8)
|
2.15
|
9.27
|
7.27
|
5.64
|
5.53
|
0.448
|
7.25
|
4.43
|
2.82
|
0.405
|
66.3%
|
35.8%
|
37.0%
|
Edge – CLEV big
Bullpens
Edge – CLEV
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
CLEV
|
4.12
|
27
|
0.303
|
28
|
85
|
25
|
-29.5
|
26
|
0.140
|
28
|
32.0%
|
28
|
10.7%
|
5
|
23.2%
|
14
|
DET
|
4.41
|
21
|
0.306
|
25
|
90
|
22
|
-21.7
|
24
|
0.165
|
20
|
32.1%
|
26
|
7.0%
|
30
|
27.3%
|
30
|
Edge – DET small
Conclusion: The Indians will probably grab one of the two final AL playoff spots. As for the Tigers, they are 5.5 games out in the AL wild card race with 11 games left to play. Suffice it to say that I don’t like their chances. Offensively, neither of these teams is very good, but of the two, the Tigers are probably slightly less putrid than the Indians. As for the two bullpens, they’re not close at all. The Indians have an elite pen and the Tigers don’t. That brings us to the two starting pitchers and that looks like a huge mismatch as well. Zach Plesac has piched well, but Michael Fulmer has sucked. Plesac is the clearly better pitcher.
Pick – CLEV 1st 5 ML and full game ML
ATL @ NYM
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
2020
|
|
GOOD
|
BAD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
HC%
|
ATL
|
Fried - L (6-0)
|
|
(9/9)
|
(0/9)
|
1.06
|
1.98
|
2.52
|
3.80
|
4.16
|
0.257
|
8.46
|
3.06
|
0.00
|
0.277
|
80.4%
|
53.5%
|
25.4%
|
NYM
|
Matz - L (0-4)
|
|
(2/5)
|
(3/5)
|
1.50
|
8.63
|
6.74
|
4.13
|
4.18
|
0.393
|
9.38
|
2.25
|
3.38
|
0.313
|
55.6%
|
33.3%
|
32.9%
|
Edge – ATL
Bullpens
Edge – ATL
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
ATL
|
5.72
|
1
|
0.350
|
2
|
117
|
6
|
48.7
|
2
|
0.211
|
4
|
37.9%
|
3
|
9.6%
|
13
|
24.1%
|
20
|
NYM
|
5.04
|
8
|
0.352
|
1
|
125
|
1
|
51.1
|
1
|
0.187
|
9
|
33.3%
|
23
|
8.7%
|
18
|
21.4%
|
8
|
Edge – None
Conclusion: The offenses are very close, but the Braves have the better bullpen and the better starting pitcher. Matz was pitching so badly that he was removed from the starting rotation. Max Fried is have an excellent season.
Pick – ATL 1st 5 ML and full game ML
NYY @ BOS
Starting Pitchers
7:30
|
2020
|
|
GOOD
|
BAD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
HC%
|
NYY
|
Montgomery - L (2-2)
|
|
(4/8)
|
(3/8)
|
1.29
|
4.76
|
4.02
|
4.00
|
4.21
|
0.317
|
8.47
|
1.85
|
1.32
|
0.311
|
66.7%
|
39.6%
|
29.9%
|
BOS
|
Perez - L (3-4)
|
|
(6/10)
|
(4/10)
|
1.33
|
4.33
|
5.14
|
5.48
|
5.69
|
0.310
|
6.40
|
4.50
|
1.21
|
0.242
|
71.9%
|
40.9%
|
30.1%
|
Edge – None
Bullpens
Edge – NYY
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
NYY
|
5.32
|
5
|
0.347
|
4
|
119
|
3
|
39.7
|
4
|
0.219
|
1
|
36.4%
|
7
|
11.2%
|
1
|
21.9%
|
10
|
BOS
|
4.61
|
17
|
0.331
|
9
|
104
|
12
|
16.7
|
9
|
0.181
|
13
|
34.8%
|
13
|
7.8%
|
25
|
24.0%
|
19
|
Edge – NYY
Conclusion: The Yanks are healthy again and they’re hitting a ton. The Yanks averaged over 4 runs per game in their last 3 games against the Blue Jays. The Yanks also have the clearly better bullpen. I think that the starting pitchers are pretty even. I don’t really like either one.
Pick – NYY ML
TB @ BALT
Starting Pitchers
7:35
|
2020
|
|
GOOD
|
BAD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
wOBA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
GB%
|
HC%
|
TB
|
Glasnow - R (3-1)
|
|
(6/9)
|
(3/9)
|
1.19
|
4.47
|
3.52
|
2.87
|
3.18
|
0.289
|
14.18
|
3.69
|
1.55
|
0.295
|
73.1%
|
39.2%
|
40.8%
|
BALT
|
Cobb ) R (1-4)
|
|
(5/8)
|
(3/8)
|
1.40
|
5.03
|
5.43
|
4.22
|
4.68
|
0.329
|
6.64
|
2.97
|
1.83
|
0.274
|
71.4%
|
52.7%
|
40.9%
|
Edge – TB
Bullpens
Edge – TB
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
wRAA
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
Hard%
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
TB
|
5.02
|
9
|
0.331
|
9
|
112
|
8
|
16.2
|
10
|
0.194
|
6
|
36.3%
|
8
|
11.1%
|
3
|
26.0%
|
27
|
BALT
|
4.69
|
14
|
0.324
|
13
|
101
|
13
|
4.4
|
13
|
0.175
|
14
|
28.5%
|
30
|
7.5%
|
29
|
22.9%
|
13
|
Edge – TB
Conclusion: The Orioles are certainly a hell of a lot better than they were just a season ago, but they are now 5 games out of the final AL wild card spot, and with just 10 games left, I doubt that they’ll get there this season. The Rays lead the AL East and will be looking to make a WS push. In this game, the Rays have all the edges.
Pick – TB 1st 5 ML and full game ML