For what it’s worth, this season’s been a real struggle. I ended up dropping a couple of unit yesterday thanks mostly to the Rockies and that stupid extra inning rule on the total last night. I’ll update the accurate record tomorrow, but I think that I’m down about 7 units for the season. There’s still plenty of time to turn it around, but I need to start soon.
Now, on to today’s plays. Here are the first two
ATL @ PHIL
Starting Pitchers
6:05
|
2020
|
|
GOOD
|
BAD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
K/BB
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
wOBA
|
GB %
|
HC %
|
ATL
|
Newcomb - L
|
|
0
|
1
|
1.46
|
6.57
|
5.08
|
5.63
|
4.89
|
6.57
|
2.92
|
2.25
|
1.46
|
0.300
|
64.0%
|
0.343
|
39.0%
|
35.7%
|
PHIL
|
Nola - R
|
|
1
|
1
|
0.79
|
3.97
|
2.18
|
1.49
|
1.42
|
15.09
|
0.79
|
19.00
|
1.59
|
0.300
|
64.5%
|
0.241
|
31.8%
|
40.9%
|
Sean Newcomb has yet to go more than 4.2 innings in any of his 3 starts. He’s given up 9 runs on 14 hits and 8 walks over 12.1 innings. That’s left him with a lousy WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics, along with a poor K rate and high walk rate. The last time Newcomb was in the ATL rotation was 2018. That season, he started 30 games with 19 good starts and 11 poor ones. His 1.33 WHIP was mediocre, but his 3.91 ERA was lower than league average. Newcomb’s ERA metrics were all slightly higher than his ERA, but not that much higher. His 22.9 K rate was solid, but his 11.5% walk rate was not, which explains the higher ERA metrics.
Aaron Nola Nola’s first start was shaky. He gave up 4 runs on 5 hits and a walk in 5.1 innings v the Marlins. H did strike out 7 so it wasn’t awful. His second staagainst the Yankees was much better. Nola held the Tanks to 1 run on 3 hits over 6 innings with 12 Ks. Last season, Nola struggled more with walks and HRs. His 9.4% walk rate was 2.4% higher than 2018 and the highest in his career. The same goes for HRs. His 1.2 HR/9 ratio was 0.48 higher than in 2018, and his 17.4% HR/FB ratio was the highest of his career and 6.8% higher than it was in 2018. Nola also got nailed last season by the third time through the order penalty. His wOBA against was .283 the first time through, .289 the second time through, and then .356 the third time through. So far this season, he’s only walked 1 and given up 2 HRs in 11.1 inningsa.
Edge – PHIL
Bullpens
Not relevant since this is a 1st 5 wager, but for the record the Braves have the much better bullpen
Edge - ATL
Offenses
Oth of these team possess above average offenses. Right now, the Braves .326 wOBA and 109 wRC+ is just slightly better than the Phils .324 and 108 repectively.
Edge – None
Conclusion: The comes down to the two starting pitchers and so far Nola’s been much better, so I’m looking to the Phils o for a 1st 5.. The Braves bullpen edge will keep me off the full game, so that’s a pass.
Pick – PHIL 1st 5 -150 for 2 units)
WASH @ NYM
Starting Pitchers
7:10
|
2020
|
|
GOOD
|
BAD
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
K/BB
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
wOBA
|
GB %
|
HC %
|
WASH
|
Corbin - L
|
|
2
|
0
|
0.92
|
3.00
|
2.72
|
2.07
|
2.25
|
12.00
|
0.75
|
16.00
|
1.50
|
0.286
|
85.4%
|
0.245
|
46.7%
|
46.7%
|
NYM
|
Matz - L
|
|
2
|
1
|
1.40
|
5.65
|
6.32
|
3.95
|
3.95
|
8.16
|
1.88
|
4.33
|
3.14
|
0.300
|
84.6%
|
0.370
|
35.6%
|
40.0%
|
Patrick Corbin has started 2 games for the Nats and delivered 2 good starts. He;s given up 4 runs on 10 hits and a walk over 12 innings with 16 Ks. The 16/1 B/BB is superb, so even with 10 hits, Corbins WHIP is still a stellar 0.92.
Corbin is coming off an excellent 2019 regular season with a 14-7 record, 26 good starts in his 33 outings, and just 6 poor ones. He did have one really bad three start stretch from late May through early June in which he lost command of his fastball and most importantly his elite slider, but except for that brief stretch Corbin pitched great. His dominant slider continued to miss bats, and when he commands the fastball and slider, Corbin can be damned near unhittable.
Steven Matz has started 3 games for the Mets and 2 were good, but his last one in WASH was not. In that one he gave up 5 runs on 7 hits to the weak hitting Nats. Tha left him with a high WHIP and ERA. He’s also given up 5 HRs in his 14.1 innings.
Edge – WASH
Bullpens
Not relevant because this is only a 1st 5 bet. I don’t trust or like either pen right now.
Offenses
This is what makes this pick iffy. The Mets have a decent offense with a 9th ranked .324 wOBA and a 7th ranked 113 wRC+. By contrast the Nats have struggled posting a 23rd ranked .292 wOBA and a 25th ranked 85 wRC+.
Edge WASH
Conclusion: It’s tough playing on a team that struggling as badly as the Nats are, byhe Mets are no prize either.
I thinks that the Nats have a better chance of getting to Matz than the Mets do of getting to Coorbin. I’m hoping Corbin is able to give me 5 solid innings.
Pick – WASH 1st 5 ML -134 for 1 unit