For what it’s worth, I was very confident about both games on Tuesday. That’s rare in the postseason when game are closer and the edges are much smaller. I loved the Astros mostly because of Gerrit Cole. He has unquestionably been the best pitcher in baseball. Cole shut down the Yankees much like he shut down almost everyone else during the regular season. I also really liked the Nats to complete the sweep. I’, not a believer in Dakota Hudson and I though the Cards were dead men walking. I bet heavily on the Astros (5 units) and the Nats (3 units). That left me +5.32 units for the day, +6.88 units for the postseason, and +240.05 units for the season.
Tonight, we have Game 4 of the ALCS series between the Astros and the Yankees at Yankee Stadium. The Astros lead the series 2 games to 1. Here’s what I think about the games.
HTN @ NYY
Starting Pitchers
4:08
|
SP 2019
|
GOOD
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
AVG
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
BB/K
|
HC
|
GB
|
HTN
|
Greinke - R
|
(24/33)
|
(9/33)
|
1.07
|
3.02
|
3.28
|
3.97
|
7.47
|
1.29
|
0.86
|
0.244
|
0.289
|
72.2%
|
0.16
|
37.6%
|
52.4%
|
NYY
|
Tanaka - R
|
(16/31)
|
(14/31)
|
1.23
|
4.47
|
4.29
|
4.44
|
7.39
|
1.96
|
1.41
|
0.257
|
0.290
|
70.6%
|
0.27
|
39.4%
|
47.8%
|
Edge – HTN
Bullpens
Edge – Edge - NYY
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
HC%
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
HTN
|
5.68
|
3
|
196.6
|
1
|
0.355
|
1
|
125
|
1
|
0.221
|
3
|
10.1%
|
1
|
18.2%
|
1
|
38.9%
|
8
|
-9.5
|
26
|
NYY
|
5.82
|
1
|
130.8
|
2
|
0.346
|
3
|
117
|
2
|
0.222
|
2
|
9.1%
|
11
|
23.0%
|
12
|
38.9%
|
8
|
-0.8
|
15
|
Edge – HTN close
Conclusion: The Yankees took the first game 1of this series 7-0 behind a surprisingly effective Masahiro Tanaka. The Astros bounced back to win the second game 3-2 in the 11th on a Carlos Correa HR off JA Happ. The Astros also took the third game 4-1 in NY behind a dominating performance by Gerrit Cole.
At times, the Astros have looked like the best team in baseball. They got back to the ALCS for the 3rd straight season, despite a myriad of injuries. Alex Bregman was their only player to play in more than 150 games. Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick, and Yuli Gurriel all played over 140. However, George Springer missed 40 games. Jose Altuve missed 38 games. Carlos Correa only played 75 games, and Yordan Alvarez wasn’t called up until midseason. The Astros also lost SPs Charlie Morton and Dallas Keuchel to free agency and SP Lance McCullers to injury. None of it mattered as the Astros just rolled on winning 107 games to set a franchise record. It was the 3rd straight season in which they won at least 100 games. That’s pretty damned impressive. The Astros are trying to win their second AL pennant in three years. They won Game 1 in the ALCS against the Red Sox last season, but then lost four straight and watched the Red Sox win the championship that they won in 2017. The Rays pushed the Astros to the brink in the ALDS, forcing Justin Verlander to go on three days rest in Game 4 and Gerrit Cole in Game 5. That could be a factor in this series
Despite a myriad of injuries of their own, the Yankees won 103 games, winning the AL East by 7 games. This is the first time since 2009-10 that the Yankees have made back-to-back ALCS appearances. They have not made a World Series appearance since 2009. The Yanks disposed of the Twins quickly and efficiently, in three neat and tidy games by a combined score of 21-87, to advance to the ALCS.
Offensively, both of these teams are loaded. The Yanks led the league in runs per game during the regular season, the Astros ranked 2nd. The Astros ranked 1st in ORAA, wOBA, and wRC+, the Yanks ranked 2nd. The Yanks ranked 2nd in ISO and HRs, the Astros ranked 3rd. The Astros did walk 1% more and strike out 4.8% less, so I guess we can give them a small edge for that, but the truth is that offensively, there’s not much that separates these two teams.
Both of these teams have good bullpens, but this is the one area where I think that the Yanks could have an edge.
The Yankees have a very strong bullpen. Four Yankees relievers ranked in the top 35 in FIP among 158 qualified relievers. A fifth, Zach Britton didn’t, but he had an ERA under 2.00. The Yanks pen worked 13.1 innings against the Twins and allowed just 3 runs. However their 7 walks could’ve been problematic, but their 16 Ks neutralized the walks. In the first 2 games of this series, the Yanks pen has given up 2 runs on 5 hits and 5 walks in 10.2 innings, with 13 Ks. So far in the postseason, they have gotten more outs from their relievers than they did from their starters. That trend may very well continue because their manager Aaron Boone almost never allows his starters to see the middle of the other team’s order a third time. The Yanks ranked 26th in number of plate appearances in which a starter faced a batter for the 3rd time. As a result, rhe Yanks pen is going to be pushed to its limits in this series, but playing just three games against the Twins at least left the Yankees pen in good shape coming into this series. The Yanks have a lot of multi-inning options like Luis Cessa, Jonathan Loaisiga, JA Happ, and CC Sabathia. We could also see the Yanks use an opener at some point because Paxton, Tanaka and Severino aren’t likely to pitch on three days’ rest. The Yanks pen might have to get at least 25 outs if this series goes seven games, between shaky starters leaving early and a potential opener game.
The Astros bullpen is also solid, but more top-heavy than the Yanks. Their late inning relief trio of Roberto Osuna, Ryan Pressley, and Will Harris were excellent during the regular season, although Pressley did struggle in game 1 of the ALDS. The Astros didn’t have to use their pen all that much in Games 1 , 2 and 5 of the ALDS against the Rays, but they did give up 3 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks over 3.1 innings in Games 1 and 2, and in Game 3 both Hector Rondon and Wade Miley got hit, giving up 4 runs on 5 hits and a walk in 2.2 innings. However in Game 4 the Astros pen contributed 4.1 scoreless innings giving up 6 hits and a walk, with 6 Ks, and in Game 5 Osuna pitched a perfect 9th in relief of starter Gerrit Cole. So far in this series, the Astros have given up 4 runs on 7 hits and 4 walks over 7.1 innings, with 11 Ks. However, If, for some reason, Cole, Verlander or Greinke don’t go deep, the Astros could have some middle relief issues, like they had in Game 3. The long ball was also a problem for several Astro relievers, including Osuna at times. Chris Devenski was left off of the roster, due in large part to his HR issues. Josh James either gave up a HR, issued a walk, or got a K. Brad Peacock struggled badly in 11 his relief innings. Joe Biagini, and Joe Smith all have skills, but the Astros lack matchup lefties. They only have Cionel Perez and Framber Valdez to use against leftues. Fortunately, the Yanks are predominantly right handed.
That brings us to the two starting pitchers, and that’s where this cap gets strange because the regular season stats tell one story, but the postseason stats offer a completely different narrative.
Zack Greinke really struggled in his ALDS start against the Rays. He gave up 6 runs on 5 hits (3 HRs) and a walk in just 3.2 innings. His ALCS start in game one was better, but still not really good. Greignke gave up 3 runs on 7 hits (2 HR) over 6 innings, with 6 Ks in the Astros 7-0 loss. That’s 9 runs on 12 hits (5 HRs) and 1 walks over 9.2 innings, with 11 Ks. The 5 HRs allowed are particularly troubling since he only allowed 21 in 208.2 innings during the regular season. Greinke had 24 good regular season starts in his 33 outings to only 9 poor ones. He had 7 good starts to 3 poor ones since joining the Astros. His WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics were all good. Greinke’s biggest strength was that he didn’t create his own problems with walks (just 30 in 208.2 1P) and he’s did a good job of limiting the long ball (21 HRs), at least until he hit the postseason, and the hard contact. That goes a long way in today’s MLB. Greinke was a solid starting pitcher and will again have the luxury of going righty vs. righty in most of his plate appearances in this game, but he does pitch to more contact than either Cole or Verlander. The Yankees were able to get to Greinke in game 1 because they hit 3 HRs.
Masahiro Tanaka was very good in the 5 innings that he worked in his ALDS start against the Twins. He gave up 1 run on 3 hits and a walk with 7 Ks. He was even better in his ALCS start in HTN, shutting out the potent Astros on 1 hit and 1 walk over 6 innings, with 4 Ks in the Yanks 7-0 win. Ironically, Tanaka had been very inconsistent during this regular season, and was definitely showing signs of decline. Tanaka had 16 good starts in his 31 outings, but he also had 14 poor ones. That’s not a very impressive ratio. Tanaka WHIP was OK, but his ERA was very mediocre, and so were his ERA metrics. The long ball remained a problem for Tanaka. He gave up 28 this season. It was more a question of how many runners would be on base when he gave them up. Tanaka’s K rate was also in decline. It was the lowest of his career, almost 2 full Ks per 9 lower than last season. When Tanaka first arrived in NY, he featured a devastating hard splitter, and was absolutely dominant. Arm trouble, and the threat of TJ surgery forced him to abandon the splitter, but he still threw hard. He wasn’t as dominant, but he was still very good. These days, as his velocity has declined, Tanaka has rediscovered his splitter, but he doesn’t throw it hard like he used to. Now he throws it more like a knuckler. It should also be noted that Tanaka has been much worse on the road posting a 1.42 WHIP, a 6.05 ERA and a .351 wOBA against in his 15 road starts. That compares to a 1.09 WHIP, a 3.10 ERA, and a ,289 wOBA against at Yankeee Stadium. Tanaka is no longer the dominant pitcher that he was back when he joined the Yankees. Now, he’s much less reliable, and more prone to bad starts. Tanaka was a barely adequate starting pitcher during the regular season, but he’s been superb in both of his postseason outings.
The offenses are both potent, but the Astros do rank slightly higher in most categories. Both bullpens are good, but I give the Yanks an edge there because of their stronger middle relief corps. As for the two starting pitchers, I’m not sure what to make of them. After another solid regular season, Zack Greinke hasn’t pitched very well in either of his postseason starts. The Astros have to be disappointed. I sure as hell am, since I was on the Astros in both of Greinke’s outings. I also don’t know what to expect from Masahiro Tanaka either. His regular season numbers tell me that he can’t be trusted, but in his 2 postseason starts, he’s been superb. Go figure? I could make a strong case for a pass here, and tomorrow I may well regret not doing so. However, I am also a strong believer in the concept of regression to the norm. The postseason numbers for both of these guys is based on a very small sample size (2 starts each, 20.2 IP). Their regular season numbers are based on a much larger sample size (64 starts, 390.2 IP). Greinke’s not as bad as he’s looked in his 2 postseason starts, and Tanaka’s not as good as he’s looked. I expect both to move toward their respective norms tonight, and if that happens, I give Greinke the edge. The Astros middle inning liability in the bullpen shouldn’t be a factor as long as greike can give them 6 solid innings.
My one concern is that this is almost a “must win” for the Yanks. With Verlander and Cole on deck for the Astros, the Yanks really can’t afford to lose this game and go down 3 games to 1, so they’ll be desperate, but for me, that’s just not enough of a reason to take the Yanks here. I still believe Greinke is the better starting pitcher and the Astros are the better team, and that’s how I bet it. Still, this is too close for a large bet so I'm betting my normal 2 units. I grabbed the Astros as a small dog, this morning.
Pick – HTN ML (+118 for 2 units)