For what it’s worth, yesterday was a crap day, for a number of reasons including a really stupid bet that I can’t blame on anyone other than the guy in the mirror. I ended up with 7 plays, cashing only 2 of them, losing 4, and pushing 1, for -3.81 units. That brought me down to a still amazing (considering how bad my April was) +63.16 units for the month of May, and +42.76 units for the season. Og well, you can’t win them all, but you can try.
My first loser was the Cubs ML for 2 units. As I wtote in yesterday’s post “I had my head up my ass. I told you I didn't trust either bullpen, but I played the damned full game ML anyway. That was DUMB! The correct play was the 1st 5 ML. If I was a pro capper and I made that big a mistake, I'd be refunding clients.”
My second loser was a 2 unit RL play on the Mets, who actually found a way to lose this game. How in the hell do you lose to a crap team like the Tigers with Gregory Soto on the hill for the,. I am a Mets fan and that loss was embarassing. oHow does Mickey Callaway still have a job today. This guy is in way over his head. Hell his head is so far up his ass that he could give himself a proctology exam. PATHETIC! At least they had the decency to be leading by 1 at the end of 5 giving me a push on my 3 unit 1st 5 RL.
My third loser was a 2 unit play on the Rays ML. The Rays have been mostly very good to me. All I can do is tip my cap off to Shane Bier who went toe to toe with Blake Snell. I’d bet it again right now.
My final loser was a 3 unit play on the Cards. The Braves pen surprisingly did not implode and the Brave won. It happens.
I cashed a 2 big 3 unit plays on the Dodgers 1st 5 and full game RL, and a 2 unit play on the Twins RL as they abused the White Sox pitchers.
Today is another day and we have a full slate of games, so let’s get right to it.
CHI WS @ MINN
Starting Pitchers
2:10
|
SP 2019
|
W/L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
HC%
|
SC%
|
GB%
|
CHI WS
|
Banuelos - L
|
(2-3)
|
(1/5)
|
(2/5)
|
2.13
|
9.15
|
8.27
|
4.82
|
4.87
|
10.02
|
5.23
|
3.92
|
0.397
|
73.3%
|
40.3%
|
11.9%
|
31.3%
|
MINN
|
Gibson - R
|
(6-3)
|
(5/9)
|
(4/9)
|
1.25
|
4.47
|
4.02
|
3.44
|
3.79
|
9.12
|
2.32
|
1.43
|
0.307
|
66.9%
|
39.3%
|
11.0%
|
46.5%
|
Manny Bauelos has started 5 games for the White Sox. He has thrown just 1 quality start and 2 poor ones. In his 5 starts Banuelos has given up 21 runs on 32 hits and 12 walks over 20,2 innings, with 23 Ks. That’s 44 baserunners in just over 20 innings! That’s pretty bad ad certainly explains the sky high WHIP and eRA. Banuelos’ ERA metrics aren’t quite as bad, but they are still ugly. His only redeeming feature is the 23 Ks, and that’s offset by the 12 walks and 9 HRs he has given upp in those 12 starts. Making matters even worse, Banuelos is coming off an IL stint with a strained shoulder, and hasn’t pitched since May 14. I don’t know how much worse he could be because he’s rusty, but it won’t help. Banuelos is prime fade ,mmaterial.
Kyle Gibson’s hasn’t been any prize either this season. He has started 8 games for the Twins and does have 5 quality starts, but he also has 4 poor ones, so he’s been really inconsistent. Gibson’s WHIP is OK, but his ERA is high. The interesting this is that Gibson’s ERA metrics are all close to afull run better that his high ERA. A strand rate that is 4.1% lower than his career rate hasn’t helped, nor have the 13 walks and 7 HRs in just over 50 innings. On the plus side Gibson is not giving up an excessive amount of amount of hard contact, and he is generating a fair amount of GBs.
Edge - MINN
Bullpens
Edge – MINN slight
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
CHI WS
|
4.34
|
21
|
-11.7
|
18
|
0.309
|
21
|
93
|
18
|
0.153
|
24
|
4.5
|
3
|
7.1%
|
27
|
26.0%
|
28
|
2.8
|
23
|
MINN
|
6.00
|
1
|
56.4
|
2
|
0.361
|
1
|
125
|
2
|
0.247
|
1
|
-3.3
|
25
|
8.4%
|
19
|
19.4%
|
3
|
13.4
|
2
|
Edge – MINN
Conclusion: I thought that the White Sox played over their heads in HTN and they came back to earth against a good Twins team last night. The Twins have all the edges here. Gibson may not be great but he is certainly better than a lousy Banuelos, coming off the IL. The ML is too rich for me, so I’ll go for the RL.
Pick – MINN – 1st 5 RL (-1 (-153 for 3 units) and RL -132 for 2 units)
NYY @ KC
Starting Pitchers
2:15
|
SP 2019
|
Team W/L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
HC%
|
SC%
|
GB %
|
NYY
|
Happ - L
|
(7-3)
|
(5/10)
|
(4/10)
|
1.30
|
5.16
|
5.71
|
4.96
|
4.67
|
6.88
|
2.24
|
2.24
|
0.278
|
77.7%
|
39.0%
|
20.7%
|
39.9%
|
KC
|
Junis - R
|
(4-6)
|
(4/10)
|
(6/10
|
1.50
|
5.69
|
5.04
|
4.66
|
4.71
|
7.64
|
3.42
|
1.63
|
0.315
|
66.7%
|
42.9%
|
12.6%
|
46.6%
|
After a slow start, JA Happ has gotten back on track with 5 good starts in his last 7outings, after two poor one in his first 3 starts. Of course, 2 of those good starts were in SF and Anaheim, two pitcher friendly venues, and 2 were against the Orioles and the fading Mariners. Now he’s in KC. Happ’s WHIP is decent, but his eRA is very, and his eRA metrics aren’t much lower. His K rate is down and he’s given up 13 walks and 13 HRs in just over 52 innings. Happ’s main problem is that his B velocity is down nearly 1.5 mph from last season. Happ relies on his FB and any velocity decline has to be cause for concern.
Jake Junis has started 10 games for the Royals this season, and more of them (6) have been poor than good (4). That’s never a good thing. Junis has given up more hits (62) than innings pitched (55.1), and then there’s the 21 walks. That’s a total of 83 baserunners in just over55 innings! That’s way too many and just asking for trouble. That certain explains Junis’ high WHIP and ERA. As for his ERA metrics, the good news is that they are mostly over a run lower than his ERA. The bad news is that they’re still really bad. Junis is also giving up his far share (10) of HRs. His high BABIP and low strand rate should both normalize, and that could help, but not nearly enough. Junis is simply putting too many runners on base, and they are scoring. As long as that continues, Junis will continue to struggle.
Edge – NYY
Bullpens
The Yankkee pan has not lived up to their advanced billings, but it is still much better that what the Royals have
Edge – NYY
Offense
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
NYY
|
5.31
|
4
|
17.9
|
7
|
0.334
|
6
|
107
|
6
|
0.194
|
8
|
1.1
|
13
|
9.6%
|
10
|
22.7%
|
13
|
7.5
|
13
|
KC
|
4.49
|
19
|
-14.6
|
19
|
0.313
|
20
|
93
|
18
|
0.168
|
18
|
2.1
|
9
|
8.9%
|
17
|
22.3%
|
10
|
5.7
|
17
|
The Royals are limited offensive, and the Yanks are hitting everything in sight.
Edge – NYY big
Conclusion: The Yanks have all the edges here. They have the much better offense and the much better bullpen. Hell, they even have the better starting pitcher, and that’s not saying all that much. This would be a much bigger play is I had more confidence in Hpp but I don’t. Of course that’s also why this line is so cheap I think it should be higher.
Pick – NYY ML (-121 for 3 units)
TB @ CLEV
Starting Pitchers
4:10
|
SP 2019
|
Team W/L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BA
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
HC%
|
SC%
|
GB %
|
TB
|
Morton - R
|
(6-4)
|
(7/10)
|
(2/10)
|
1.20
|
2.65
|
3.18
|
3.56
|
3.83
|
11.10
|
4.14
|
0.66
|
0.203
|
0.286
|
80.4%
|
30.8%
|
18.5%
|
53.3%
|
CLEV
|
Carrasco - R
|
(5-5)
|
(4/10)
|
(4/10)
|
1.22
|
4.30
|
3.62
|
3.29
|
3.12
|
11.35
|
1.55
|
1.72
|
0.266
|
0.344
|
78.4%
|
44.7%
|
16.4%
|
37.4%
|
Charlie Morton has started 10 games for the Rays. Seven of those outings have been very good, two was poor and one was short. Morton has only given up 18 runs (16 earned) on 40 hits over 54.1 innings, but he’s also walked a whopping 25 batters. That’s living dangerously for any starting pitcher. Norton’s WHIP and ERA are both excellent, and his ERA metrics, while higher than his ERA , are still very good. Of course, that’s because of the walks, and it’s telling me that with that many baserunners, Morton has been somewhat lucky to have only allowed 18 runs. You put that many men on base and sooner or later you’re gonna get burned. It’s inevitable. Morton’s K rate is still elite and he doesn’t give up a lot of HRs (4) or hard contact, but oh those walks.
The strangest thing about Carlos Carrasco throughout his career is that that there’s been no real in between. He’s either great or he’s awful. Fortunately for the Indians, Carrasco’s been more good than bad through his career. However, so far this young season it’s been more of an even split. Carrasco has 5 very good starts, 4 poor ones and one that would have been good (0 runs allowed) but only lasted 4 innings. That’s left Carrasco with a pretty good WHIP, but an ERA that’s on the high side. However his ERA metrics are all about a full run better that his elevated ERA. A BABIP that is 36 points higher than his career mark tell me that Carrasco’s has had some really bad luck, and points to some positive regression going forward. His K rate is still elite, but Carrasco is giving up 12.9% more hard contact than his career rate.
Edge – TB small
Bullpens
The Rays have a very good bullpen, bus so do the Indians. The numbers give CLEV a small edge.
Edge - CLEV
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
TB
|
4.46
|
20
|
18.6
|
6
|
0.327
|
11
|
107
|
6
|
0.180
|
12
|
3.0
|
6
|
9.3%
|
14
|
24.9%
|
22
|
8.6
|
8
|
CLEV
|
3.86
|
25
|
-50.9
|
25
|
0.292
|
26
|
77
|
26
|
0.139
|
29
|
3.3
|
4
|
10.5%
|
4
|
24.1%
|
16
|
1.2
|
27
|
The Indians can’t hit worth shit. The Rays make good contact and are a pretty decent, but not a great, offense That makes them better than the Indians.
Edge - TB
Conclusion: The Rays can hit better than the Indians and as a result score more runshe Indians can’t. The Indians have a very good pen, but so do the Rays. That leaves the two starting pitchers, and that is a close call. Morton’s been more consistent, but his walks can be problematic. Carrasco has struggled more with consistency and is getting hit harder than he ever has in his entire career. The bottom line is that I don’t trust the Indians to hit enough to win. I don’t understand why the Indians are favored here. I don’t think that they should be. The Rays are simply the better team. I lost with them last night butI’m right back on them today, and I’m getting a nice price
Pick – TB ML (+122 for 2 units)
LAD @ PITT
Starting Pitchers
7:15
|
SP 2019
|
Team W/L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BA
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
HC%
|
SC%
|
GB %
|
LAD
|
Ryu - L
|
(6-3)
|
(8/9)
|
(0/9)
|
0.74
|
1.52
|
2.62
|
2.72
|
3.05
|
8.95
|
0.61
|
0.91
|
0.190
|
0.233
|
95.5%
|
39.5%
|
14.5%
|
45.3%
|
PITT
|
Musgrove - R
|
(4-5)
|
(7/9)
|
(2/9)
|
1.12
|
3.81
|
3.09
|
4.50
|
4.57
|
7.44
|
2.94
|
0.35
|
0.211
|
0.262
|
55.0%
|
36.4%
|
16.6%
|
45.0%
|
Hyun-Jin Ryu was off to a terrific start this season. He opened with back to back quality starts against the Diamondbacks and Giants, in which he gave up a total of 3 runs on 10 hits over 13 innings with 11 Ks. He had to leave his 3rd start on April 8, in the 2nd inning with a groin injury. Since his return, Ryu has tossed 6 more quality starts. Ryu has yet to give up more than 2 runs in any start this season, and has given up just 1 run total in his last 4 starts! His WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics are all outstanding. The only concern with Ryu is that 95.5% strand rate which is simply not sustainable, but even with some regression, Ryu is having a Cy Youny type season.
After 5 straight quality starts, Joe Musgrove was roughed up in each of last 2 starts v OAK and at STL. Musgrove gave up 15 runs (13 earned) on 12 hits and 7 walks over just 222 innings in those 2 outings. He obviously got no help from his defense either, but he also just wasn’t at all sharp. However, Musgrove got back on tract with 2 more good starts in his last 2 outings, leaving him with 7 quality starts to just 2 poor ones. Musgrove has a good WHIP and a solid ERA, with eRA metrics that are consistent with his ERA. Musgrove doesn’t miss that many bats and is more of a pitch to contact type, but he is not giving an excessive amount of hard contact and just 2 HRs. He is also generating a lot of GBs. Musgrove’s very low strand rate should normalize aas well, nd provide some positive regression too.
Edge - LAD
Bullpens
More was expected from both of these bullpens, but both have underperformed. Bit they look even on paper
Edge – None
Offense
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
LAD
|
5.24
|
7
|
38.5
|
3
|
0.337
|
5
|
113
|
3
|
0.197
|
5
|
6.0
|
1
|
10.7%
|
2
|
20.5%
|
5
|
12.8
|
3
|
PITT
|
3.92
|
24
|
-30.8
|
21
|
0.298
|
22
|
85
|
21
|
0.146
|
27
|
2.9
|
7
|
7.2%
|
26
|
22.0%
|
9
|
2.8
|
22
|
The Dodgers hold every edge here, and most by a wide margin.
Edge – LAD big
Conclusion: The Dodger have the much better offense and the better starting pitcher. Musgrove’s pitched very well for the Pirates, but Ryu’ has been unworldly good for the Dodgers. I grabbed this one this morning. It could only go up
Pick – LAD ML (-167 for 2 units)
ATL @ STL
Starting Pitchers
7:15
|
SP 2019
|
W/L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BA
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
HC%
|
SC%
|
GB %
|
ATL
|
Soroka - R
|
(5-2)
|
(7/7)
|
(0/7)
|
0.87
|
1.01
|
2.89
|
3.71
|
3.91
|
8.26
|
2.82
|
0.20
|
0.156
|
0.203
|
87.2%
|
29.4%
|
23.5%
|
56.5%
|
STL
|
Hudson - R
|
(4-5)
|
(5/9)
|
(2/9)
|
1.71
|
4.47
|
5.48
|
4.36
|
4.64
|
6.99
|
4.08
|
1.75
|
0.299
|
0.329
|
72.7%
|
39.9%
|
15.2%
|
60.3%
|
Mike Soroka has gone at least 5 innings in all 7 of his starts, and has yet to give up more than 1 earned run in any of them. Soroka has given up just 7 runs (5 earned) on 25 hits and 14 walks over 44.2 innings, with an impressive 41 Ks, a 56.5% GB rate, and a 28.4% hard contact rate. By the way, he also has given up just 1 HR. It’s no wonder that his WHIP, ERA and ERA are all very good. It is true that his ERA metrics are considerably higher than his minisule ERA, but they are still very good. It is also true that his low BABIP and high strand rate both point to negression for Soroka. As do his xStats . His BA of .159 should be more like .213. His SLG of .210 should be more like .300. His wOBA of .217 should be, more like .272. That 55-point gap is the 6th largest in baseball (minimum 100 plate appearances). But, even wit that regression factored in, those numbers are still exceptional. Yes there are a lot of arrows pointing to some regression, but aren’t we nitpicking a little? Other than the 14 walks, what’s not to like, even with some regression?
Da kota Hundosn has looked a lot better recently. He now has 5 quality starts, all in his last 5 outings. Hudson has given up 31 runs (23 earned) on 58 hits and 22 walks over 47 innings. That’s still 80 baserunners in 47 7 innings, way too many. His WHIP and ERA have come down, but are still very high, and his ERA metrics are also up there aswell. Hudson has struggled with control (22 walks) and HRs (9). Hudson doesn’t miss many bats, but he is generating a shitload of GBs.
Edge – ATL
Bullpens
Despite not blowing it yesterday, this Braves pen is not to be trusted.
Edge – STL big
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
ATL
|
5.02
|
11
|
11.8
|
10
|
0.330
|
8
|
104
|
11
|
0.182
|
11
|
3.1
|
5
|
9.5%
|
11
|
21.5%
|
8
|
8.9
|
6
|
STL
|
4.94
|
13
|
16.7
|
9
|
0.327
|
11
|
105
|
9
|
0.166
|
20
|
5.7
|
2
|
9.9%
|
7
|
21.2%
|
7
|
9.1
|
5
|
These are two potent offenses
Edge - None
Conclusion : The offenses are potent and I’m inclined to consider them even. I think that the Card pen in probably overachieving and will regress, but it will still be better than the bunch of stiffs in the ATL pen. As for the two starting pitchers, even with some regression factored in, this is still a mismatch. Soroka’s been tremendous, but I don’t trust the Braves pen
Pick – ATL 1st 5 ML (-137) for 3 units)
NYY @ KC
Starting Pitchers
8:15
|
SP 2019
|
Team W/L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BA
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
HC%
|
SC%
|
GB %
|
NYY
|
Green - R
|
(1-0)
|
(/1)
|
(1/1)
|
2.40
|
10.80
|
21.09
|
6.63
|
5.93
|
5.40
|
5.40
|
10.80
|
0.429
|
0.250
|
100.0%
|
33.3%
|
0.0%
|
33.3%
|
KC
|
Lopez - R
|
(1-8)
|
(2/9)
|
(7/9
|
1.50
|
6.29
|
5.88
|
4.64
|
4.58
|
8.51
|
3.51
|
2.22
|
0.278
|
0.309
|
68.6%
|
41.2%
|
14.2%
|
39.2%
|
Chad Green has made just 1 starts for the Yankees and it wasn’t very good. Green gave up 2 runs on 3 hits (2 HRs) and 1 walk in just 1.2 innings at TB. All I can say is that while that 1 start was awful, it was just 1 starts, an incredibly small sample size, so throw the numbers out the window.
Jorge Lopez did have 2 quality starts in his first 3 outings, but since then it’s been all down hill. Over his last 6 starts, Lopez has given up 28 runs (27 earned) on 40 hits and 13 walks over 31.2 innings. That’s awful! Lopez’s WHIP, ERA and ERA metrics are all sky high. He’s walked at least 2 batters in 7 of his 9 starts, and he’s surrendered 10 HRs. That not a profile that I’m ever going to bet on, even with Chad Green on the other side. It is one that I’ll fade almost automatically.
Edge – None
Bullpens
The Yankee pen has not lived up to its’ advanced billings, but it is still much better that what the Royals have.
Edge – NYY
Offense
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
NYY
|
5.31
|
4
|
17.9
|
7
|
0.334
|
6
|
107
|
6
|
0.194
|
8
|
1.1
|
13
|
9.6%
|
10
|
22.7%
|
13
|
7.5
|
13
|
KC
|
4.49
|
19
|
-14.6
|
19
|
0.313
|
20
|
93
|
18
|
0.168
|
18
|
2.1
|
9
|
8.9%
|
17
|
22.3%
|
10
|
5.7
|
17
|
The Royals are limited offensive, and the Yanks are hitting everything in sight.
Edge – NYY big
Conclusion: The Yanks have most of the edges here. They have the much better offense and the much better bullpen. Hell, they might even have the better starting pitcher. I say might because while Chad Green was awful in his first and only starts, I’m not sure that he’s really that bad. I am sure Jorge Lopez is. Worst case scenario, both starter suck and this is decided by the offenses and bullpens. The Yanks should still win big. This line is steeper than this afternoon’s, and that’s with Green. Further it’s gone up about 20 cents since it came out and I bet it???
Pick – NYY ML (-140 for 2 units)
TEX @ LAA
Starting Pitchers
10:07
|
SP 2019
|
W/L
|
QS
|
POOR
|
WHIP
|
ERA
|
FIP
|
xFIP
|
SIERA
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
HR/9
|
BA
|
BABIP
|
LOB%
|
HC%
|
SC%
|
GB %
|
TEX
|
Minor - L
|
(5-5)
|
(7/10)
|
(2/10)
|
1.13
|
2.64
|
3.24
|
4.05
|
3.95
|
9.32
|
2.78
|
0.84
|
0.224
|
0.287
|
84.1%
|
35.9%
|
19.4%
|
41.1%
|
LAA
|
Skaggs - L
|
(4-4)
|
(4/8)
|
(3/8)
|
1.40
|
5.01
|
4.20
|
4.53
|
4.48
|
8.71
|
3.27
|
1.31
|
0.264
|
0.316
|
67.2%
|
43.9%
|
21.1%
|
33.3%
|
Mike Minor has started 10 games for the Rangers, with 7 quality starts, 2 poor ones and one mediocre one. That’s a pretty solid ratio. He’s given up more than 3 earned runs just twice this season. Minor’s WHIP and ERA are both excellent and his ERA metrics, while considerably higher than his stellar ERA are still solid. That discrepancy can b explained by a strand rate that is 1o.1% higher than his career rate. Some regression should be expected for both. Minor is striking out almost a batter per inning and limiting his HRs and hard contact. Minor’s big problem has always been health, and now that he’s healthy, he’s pitching as well as he ever has.
Tyler Skaggs has started 8 games and 4 of them have been solid, but the other 4 have been poor. However, it should be noted that 3 of Skaggs’ 4 poor starts were on the road. Skaggs has given up 25 runs (23 earned) on 43 hits and 15 walks over 41.1 innings. Overall, Skaggs’ WHIP iand ERA are both high. His ERA metrics are about a half a run better than his ERA, but still high. Again, it should be emphasized that Skaggs has pitcher better at home. In his 3 home starts, Skaggs is carrying a 1.11 WHIP and a 3.00 ERA. It should also be noted that it’s only 3 starts, so the sample size is very small.
Edge - TEX
Bullpens
Edge - LAA
Offenses
Team
|
RPG
|
Rank
|
ORAA
|
Rank
|
wOBA
|
Rank
|
wRC+
|
Rank
|
ISO
|
Rank
|
BsR
|
Rank
|
BB%
|
Rank
|
K%
|
Rank
|
WAR
|
Rank
|
TEX
|
5.73
|
2
|
17.8
|
8
|
0.343
|
3
|
107
|
6
|
0.212
|
3
|
1.0
|
15
|
9.8%
|
8
|
24.9%
|
22
|
6.7
|
15
|
LAA
|
4.72
|
16
|
8.3
|
12
|
0.322
|
14
|
105
|
9
|
0.172
|
16
|
-2.6
|
24
|
9.5%
|
11
|
16.2%
|
1
|
7.5
|
12
|
Edge – TEX
Conclusion: The Rangers obviously have the much better offense. If this game is close late the Angles do have the better bullpen, but the Rangers also have the better starting pitchers. As mention, Minor is pitching as well as he ever has, and Skaggs has been very inconsistent.
Pick – TEX 1st 5 ML (-105 for 1 unit)