I apologize in advance, but did not get a chance to type up the breakdowns of all the games.
Instead I did a condensed version, and just showed the model output next to a particular play.
Good Luck
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2016 NFL Record:
71 – 64 @ 53% for +0.6 Units
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Week 15
Plays:
#1: Week 15 Game of the Week - $5 - Click HERE to Join IN
#2: Miami Dolphins -2.5 -115 - Won
Miami has won 7 of the last 8 games. The Jets, on the other hand, have only 4 wins on the year. They somehow squeezed out a win @ San Francisco, after being down by double-digits early in that one. I typically love fading a ‘bad’ team coming off a rare win, and Jets are as bad as it gets. There aren’t many teams that are worse than them, with only Cleveland, 49ers, and Rams coming to mind. Plus this team’s 31st ranked defense is going to be even more depleted for today, with Skrine (their slot CB) and Mauldin (OLB) out. Matt Moore is starting for the Dolphins, and though he’s a backup, he’s been with the organization for a long time. Plus he doesn’t have to do much to come close to Tannehill’s level of performance. The key here is that Moore is better than Petty at this stage of their respective careers. Final factor is that NY sports the 32nd ranked special-teams. In a cold environment with two mediocre QB’s, a key special teams play could very well end up being the difference in this one. Miami is a better team and I expect a strong showing from them tonight.
#3: Tampa Bay Bucs +7
My model has this one at +5.5 Tampa.
#4: Philadelphia Eagles +6
My model has this one at +4 Philly.
#5: Chicago Bears +5.5
My model has this one at +2.5 Bears
#6: Tennessee Titans +5.5
My model has this one at +4 Titans
#7: Denver Broncos +3 +105
My model has this one at +1 DEN
#8: San Diego Chargers +2.5
My model has this one at -1.5 SD
#9: Cincinnati Bengals +3
My model has this one at -0.5 Cincy
Good Luck