2016 NFL Record:
65 – 52 @ 56% for +7.8 Units
-----------------------------------
Week 13
Plays:
#1: Top NFL Play for Sunday Week 13 - $5 - Click HERE to Join IN
#2: Top MNF Play for Week 13 - $5 - Click HERE to Join IN
#3: Teaser-6.5 Points
Seattle Seahawks -0.5 / New Orleans Saints +0.5
Seahawks off a loss and getting healthier on D, taking on a Panthers team that is missing a number of key defenders. Saints at home against the 32nd ranked pass-D is virtually a must play in a ‘teaser’.
#4: Houston Texans +6
I have this one -4 GB so there’s value in this number. The Packers are coming off a short-week, Aaron Rodgers picked up a hammy injury, Green Bay has no run-game, and they only rank 12th offensively in the passing game. This is not a “scary” Green Bay offense from seasons past, and I think Houston’s D could have some success here. As long as Hopkins, Fuller, and Miller can make Osweiler look “good” somehow, Houston has a strong chance of keeping this one close.
#5: New Orleans Saints -6
What happens when the 32nd ranked pass-D goes to New Orleans to take on a 5th ranked Saints pass-offense? Lots and lots of points scored by the home team of course. The Saints will get theirs here. The question is, will the Lions match them? Detroit does not have a lot of big-play ability. Stafford ranks only 18th with a 6.6 PY/A average. Lions’ best deep-threat, Marvin Jones, is playing at less than 100%. And Detroit has no run-game, which does not enable them to force the opposition to bring the safeties in. Basically, Detroit will need to sustain long drives in order to score points, and that’s hard to do on a consistent basis. Saints’ big-play ability and home field edge, are enough here for me to like this play at less than a TD.
#6: Arizona Cardinals -2
Washington goes on the road to take on the 4th ranked Arizona defense. The Cardinals are 3rd against the pass, and that’s the biggest factor here as typically Cousins struggles against elite pass-defending units. Arizona is 0-3 in the last 3 on the road, but they are 3-2-1 at home, with the two losses coming against NE and the Rams, early in the year. I expect this team to play much better than they have the last two weeks. The biggest matchup advantage is Arizona’s run-game against Washington’s 32nd ranked run-D. David Johnson should have a field-day in this one. My model has this one at -3.1 ARZ, and in the off-season this line was -6.5 Cards. There’s value at the current number.
#7: New York Giants +6
I have this one at PIT -4.2 so there’s a couple of points of value here. The biggest factor is that Giants rank 7th in pass-D and they’ve been the 4th best team in the league against opposition’s #1 WR. If they can at least slow down Antonio Brown, they should have a strong shot here. At the same time, Pittsburgh’s pass-D is ranked 30th against the opponents’ #1 WR. Odell Beckham Jr. should have a big day. Overall, both are fairly similar teams. I expect a close game.
#8: Dallas Cowboys -3 (TNF) - Lost
Additional Breakdowns:
DEN @ JAX +3.5
With Semien out, Paxton Lynch will start for the Broncos. The kid is a rookie and starting on the road is never easy. But of course, there’s just not much to go on here. Jags rank 14th in pass-D and have allowed under 20 PPG at home. On the other side, you have one of the worst QB’s in the league (Bortles) going up against the #1 ranked pass-D. Jags will be without Hurns, Ivory, and Julius Thomas, stripping this offense of a number of playmakers. Expect two run-heavy, cautious approaches in this game. The total has really dropped in this one of course, but it’s tough to play. Bortles is extremely susceptible to pick-6’s and both teams feature bottom-5 special teams, which indicates that a long return or two could be very possible. I wouldn’t be surprised to see something ‘fluky’ happen in this game, which could pretty much be the deciding outcome. By the way, as much as I’d love to grab the Jags as a home favorite of over a FG, going up against a rookie QB, I keep being reminded how awesome this Denver D looked (especially in the first half) last week. With Talib and Wolfe back in the fold, this defense is as filthy as it gets. Bortles truly stands no chance.
Lean: JAX +3.5
=============
PHI @ CIN -1.5
The luster has worn off Carson Wentz, as the rookie is impossible to trust on the road. It doesn’t help that Philly is 1-5 ATS on the road. Of course Cincy is 2-8 ATS in all their games this season. They have one of the worst pass-protecting O-lines and that makes this one virtually unplayable for me. Philly has the 6th ranked pas-rush, the #2 ranked pass-D, and Bengals are without AJ Green.
Lean: CIN -1.5
=============
SF @ CHI +2.5
Holy cow, 49ers are a road favorite?!? This was my initial though as I was ready to fade them in this one. Then I realized there must be a reason for this line of course. Chicago is missing a ton of talent on defense: Trevathan, Freeman, Floyd, Amos, Hall. In addition, the offense is being led by Matt Barkley, who is awful. Last week he barely completed 50% of his passes for 5.8 PY/A. Of course Bears have Howard and he ‘should’ dominate against this league-worst San Fran run-D, but everyone knows that’s the obvious game plan. So I expect San Fran to stack the box and force Barkley to make plays. Chances of him doing enough are very small. Chances of me backing a horrific team like San Fran as a road favorite, are even smaller.
Lean: CHI +2.5
=============
LAR @ NE -13.5
West Coast team playing on the road in the 1 PM EST time. Rookie QB who looks completely overmatched. Rams’ best pass-rusher Quinn is out. Seems like this should be an easy blowout for the Pats. But they will be without Gronk, and their offense becomes a lot less efficient without him. In addition, Brady is nursing a knee injury, and even without Quinn, this Rams’ D line is pretty scary. And of course the biggest factor is that I have this one at -11 NE. No way would I recommend playing an over-valued line in this spot. And even though an under-valued double-digit underdog is tempting, I just can’t back Goff in such a difficult spot.
Lean: LAR +13.5
==============
MIA @ BAL -3.5
The ‘hook’ makes this one unplayable for me, as I would be all over the home team if it was a FG or lower. The #1 ranked run-D (and overall) going up against a strong rushing team like Miami, is typically advantageous for a home team. Throw in a mediocre QB like Tannehill, who is missing his top deep threat (Parker), and you have to love this matchup even more. Expecting Tannehill to make adjustments in a hostile road environment is typically futile, and I don’t see him carrying this offense here. Miami has won six in a row, but it gets harder and harder to maintain that kind of effort level week to week. Baltimore’s 30th ranked offense is pure garbage, and that prevents me from laying more than a FG in this one.
Lean: BAL -3.5
=============
BUF @ OAK -3
Buffalo’s 2nd ranked run-O will take on Oakland’s 27th ranked run-D. Of course the Raiders have a similar advantage on the other side as well: 5th ranked run-O vs 25th ranked run-D of the Bills. We’ll also see Buffalo’s #1 ranked pass-rush go up against Oakland’s #1 ranked O-line (in terms of pass-protection). My model has this one at OAK -2.5 so this line is properly set.
Lean: BUF +3
============
TB @ SD -3.5
Here’s another game that is tough for me to decipher. At -3, I’m taking the Chargers. At 3.5 it’s a pass. I have this one at -4.5 SD. Both teams are playing well. Both are much better than everyone expected. And I do think we’ll see a close game. I don’t like the fact that Tampa is coming off such huge upsets of KC and SEA, and now must travel cross-country. This could very well be a let-down spot for them.
Lean: SD -3.5
===========
CAR @ SEA -7
The Seahawks are over-valued here as I have this one at -4.9 SEA. But the Panthers are without Keuchly, their best LB, without Addison, their best pass-rusher, and without Coleman, their solid starting safety. Seattle, on the other hand, is getting Earl Thomas and Michael Bennett back. Plus it seems they’re still upset about how last season ended between these two teams.
Lean: SEA -7
===========