Point Blank – October 11
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NFL #5
There is a hell of a lot of mediocrity on parade in the NFL this season, with Week #5 beginning with ineptitude in front of the national cameras with Cardinals/49ers, and finishing with ineptitude in front of the national cameras with Buccaneers/Panthers. One of the running themes in these threads, and on the weekly podcast, is that the average NFL team might be 2.5 points worse than the average team was a decade ago; after this week I may have to adjust that to 3.
But where there is sloppiness there can be opportunity – the rest of the betting markets have to sort through the same dumpster. That means time to get to work to stay ahead of the crowd, and on Tuesday’s it also means a long read ahead because there are multiple topics at hand, including lunch, the latter being far more distinguished than the NFL quality of play, and we even have some MLB Playoff action from Palmtree. The pro football theme this week brought a lot of duo’s to mind, with Bennett/Gronk beginning to show what they can do; Ryan/Shanahan getting on the same page after a difficult 2015; the Jets seeing what happens when Decker/Marshall are not both out there and more. So we plug in the jukebox and set Bruce Springsteen and Steve Van Zandt team up for a little fun with "Two Hearts", this one from Milan back in July -
Item: Now here comes Tom Brady, Marty and the Gronkinator
There is at least a chance for genuine greatness to come from the 2016 NFL mix – the Patriot offense has a chance to be special. The theme was expounded on here in early August and on Sunday came the first movement of what could be a rather exquisite concerto. What happens when you put the size, speed and athleticism of Rob Gronkowski and Martellus Bennett on the field at the same time? Things like Sunday’s easy win at Cleveland happen, New England getting 33 points on the board despite not even trying on the final two possessions, when Brady was not on the field.
Rust for Brady? Who knows, perhaps there was. But the combination of those weapons, and a weak Browns defense, brought home a 127.7 Passer Rating, something he had only topped six times over the previous four seasons. The TEs came front and center, combining for 11 catches for 176 yards and three TDs, the scores all ending up in the arms of Bennett.
Here is the gist – I see the package as being historically lethal. Most teams cannot cover either of the duo adequately, much less both, and it is going to force opposing DCs into a lot of gimmick defenses. That is not the ideal way to try to thwart Brady, arguably the smartest QB ever to play the game. Do you want to leave a LB out there covering either of them? Brady will isolate the matchup, with a playbook that allows him to flank either Gronkowski or Bennett out wide, perhaps even on the same side. Do you want to add a safety? Then the Patriots can move both to their traditional spots next to the tackles, and run the ball. There is so much upside because it isn’t just the individual talent of the TEs, but the fact that Brady can conduct the offense to such a high level to get that talent into the optimal play. And while the summer preview focused on how the players themselves recognized what could happen, the aftermath from Sunday brought more on the theme.
From Brady - “Marty played great. He’s played five great weeks of football for us. He’s been so productive with everything we’ve asked him to do running, catching, scoring touchdowns. Him and Gronk at tight end has been a tough matchup for other teams.”
From Gronkowski - “That’s why it’s a team game. The two defenders come to me and leave Marty in the red zone one-on-one. So it gives other people opportunities to capitalize on them.”
From Bennett - “I love playing with Gronk. I’m very excited for him. It was pretty dynamic with both of us out there today. He played very well. I expect him to continue to play like that. That’s what Gronk is. That’s what Gronk does. That’s why he’s the Gronkonator.”
When you hear Marty and the Gronkonator, you know how much fun they are having putting things together, which makes the ceiling even higher.
Item: When Brandon Marshall is only a solo act, the Jets are in trouble
Sub-Item: And for New York the timing could not have been much worse
When Marshall and Eric Decker are on the field together it is enough to make Ryan Fitzpatrick an average QB. We saw that in 2015. But Decker went down early with an injury at Kansas City in Week #3, and since then the Jets have been a mess on offense. They have lost their last three games by 49 points, and have only managed to score once in the second half through that span, that coming in a meaningless late drive vs. Seattle when they were trailing 27-10.
Sunday brought the issue to a proper focus – Marshall came up big at Pittsburgh with eight catches for 114 yards. Fitzpatrick also executed a clean game, the offense having 58 snaps without a turnover. They just couldn’t produce because the other key weapons in the passing game weren’t there, not just Decker this time but also Jalin Marshall.
The first part of this is tangible – Fitzpatrick is an adequate game manager that you can win with is he is surrounded by quality playmakers. He is not the kind of guy that can step up and make plays on his own. Then there comes the second part. Much like the pre-season focus point on the Patriots is now coming into play, so is that for the Jets. A difficult early schedule was going to challenge them even if all hands were on deck, in particular because of the fish bowl of playing in front of the New York media. Now how the frustrations of being 1-4, and likely 1-5 after this week’s trip to Arizona, get handled will be a major issue of the second half of the season. There is a lot of reading between the lines to do here, and you can start with Marshall himself -
"This first part of the season has been really tough. It's challenging our relationships. It's challenging our schemes. It's challenging the guys that we have. Losing in professional sports is really tough. This isn't like a bad business deal. In business, everything is cordial, and everything is political. This is a volatile game, not only on the field but also at the negotiating table and in the locker room. It's just unique. There's a lot of rage. There's a lot of anger.
"So sometimes, that can spill over into how we deal with things and how we move forward. That's good. That's what makes football so awesome, because you have almost 60 guys from different walks of life, different environments coming together and trying to accomplish one goal. It's a challenge to push each other every day, to encourage each other, to hold each other accountable."
Later in the season the Jets could get healthy, and be an under-valued bunch as they step down in class. Or they could implode. Setting the optimal power ratings for this team will go beyond statistics.
Item: The Falcons were better with 23 points and 372 yards at Denver than 48 and 571 vs. Carolina (Matt Ryan and Kyle Shanahan are figuring it out)
In last Tuesday’s NFL review there was a dive into the details of those brilliant Atlanta numbers vs. Carolina, in particular a game for the ages from Julio Jones. This past Sunday the offense fell off by 25 points and nearly 200 yards, Jones himself only catching two passes for 20 yards. Yet in truth they might have been even more impressive.
One of the storylines that came up a few times last season was how uncomfortable Ryan looked in the Shanahan playbook in their first campaign of working together, and the scoreboard measured that down the stretch. But they are doing what quality professionals do – learn to work together, and you can find some details on that front in this piece by Steve Hummer for the Atlanta Constitution-Journal last week. What happened on Sunday is that those two guys worked out a way to do something that has been so every rare the past two seasons – exploit the Denver defense.
This one was about matchups, which in reality was what the win over the Panthers was as well, when Jones was left in one-on-one coverage so often. The Falcons found that they could get RBs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman isolated against Bronco LBs in the passing game, and they made it work. Of Ryan’s 267 passing yards 167 went to that duo, and there was also a connection for 13 yards to FB Patrick DiMarco. When was the last time a team had 180 passing yards to RBs in a game? I don’t have a way to search that out. By the way, of those 481 Ryan passing yards at Carolina, only 35 went to the RBs.
What matters once again is having players buying in to something that was successful, because it makes it easier for them to buy in the next time. Let’s go right to those RBs, first from Freeman - “They’re (Denver) so sound and fundamental that you have to create stuff on those guys. They were where they needed to be every single play. I just had to make something happen and that’s what I did.” And Coleman - “It’s a great defense, but they just had the linebackers on us and we are faster than them. It was a great call by [Offensive Coordinator] Kyle [Shanahan] to have us run with the linebackers on us.”
And perhaps even better in the grand scheme, after Freeman was asked in the post-game if the Falcons had the most versatile offense in the league - “I’ve thought that since last year. We’re just now putting all those pieces together and putting everybody in position. Everybody is learning their role. I definitely feel like everybody is learning their role. The coaches really understand us and what we can do. I definitely think we’re the best in the league right now.”
That is far different than what you read coming out of Baltimore…
Item: Quoth the Ravens to Marc Trestman, “Nevermore”…
I belittle the Sports Mediaverse here on many occasions, though that does not require much inspiration or perspiration to find; some days it is not much more than shooting fish in a barrel. But I don’t have to write as much on this front because it was already done so well. This is from Mike Preston of the Baltimore Sun, written in the aftermath of the Ravens lose to Washington, a day before Marc Trestman was canned as OC -
Except for defensive coordinator Dean Pees, the Ravens' coaching staff performed poorly and should shoulder more blame than the players. … Offensive coordinator Marc Trestman’s play calling was disappointing. More than disappointing, it was terrible again…
But Trestman doesn't know how to use (Terrance) West. Trestman doesn't have a feel for the game, and Harbaugh apears to be at his mercy because he doesn't have an offensive background. West had seven carries for 60 yards in the first half, but got only four carries in the second half, to finish with 95 yards…
In a season-opening loss against Pittsburgh, the Steelers pounded the Redskins into submission with their running game, and it seemed like the Ravens were going to do the same after the first quarter. But, poof. West disappeared like Houdini…
On the sidelines, there isn't a lot of communication between Harbaugh and Trestman, and only slightly more between Trestman and Flacco. Trestman is at the point where he is on the verge of losing these offensive players unless Harbaugh endorses him or makes a change…
There is good and bad going forward. The good is that the Baltimore offense has far more upside than what has shown on the field, and with a veteran like Marty Mornhinweg available to step right in at OC it is not a major overhaul. The bad is that the Raven mix is going to require some savvy – while there are good pieces available, there is a task ahead at making them fit. No one from the WR/TE/RB group is going to the Pro Bowl, so there is a load placed on the shoulders of the guys dialing up the plays.
Here is Harbaugh’s take on the transition - "We're in a good position to have a guy with that kind of experience here, and it's experience in this system — basically the West Coast terminology. He fits right in. I know there will be some things that he'll tweak, but the basic system is not going to change. The way we adjust some routes, maybe, or the way we organize our protections or some of our play-action passes, that's all the stuff that Marty's got to do the way he believes they should be done. But the basic system, terminology, the way we operate is the same."
I believe Mornhinweg can clean up some of the Trestman mess and make the Ravens better than they have been. But this deep into the season will he be able to maximize what they canbe?
Item: Just how bad was the Indianapolis defense?
Sub-Item: And how much do we blame on the London hangover
There will be plenty of discussion this week in Chicago about whether Brian Hoyer or Jay Cutler will be the Bears starting QB. Not that it matters all that much for a season heading nowhere, but fuel certainly got added to the debate of those fires when Hoyer put together a 120.0 passer rating at Indianapolis, leading the Chicago offense to 522 yards at 8.4 per play. Should it? One game does not alter the career arc of Hoyer, who is a competent NFL #2 but just not a lead guy.
Here’s the thing – what I just wrote about Hoyer could have been written about many of the key cogs for the Bears on Sunday. That may well have been the best game of Hoyer’s career (it certainly was in terms of completions and yards). But will Cam Meredith ever catch nine passes for 130 yards again? How often will Jordan Howard run for 118 yards at 7.4 per attempt, and catch three passes for 45 more yards? That was a cast of under-studies coming up with a performance worthy of a Tony award, except that in this case they were not actors on stage, but instead football plays meeting little resistance.
The Colts could not stop the run (6.6 per attempt), and did not get a sack or interception of Hoyer in 43 drop-backs. Chuck Pagano worded it rather succinctly afterwards - “There was a lot of stuff out there (the Bears) didn’t have to work really hard for. So we’ll go to work to get that stuff cleaned up.”
The Colts being bad on defense is not news – in their previous home game Philip Rivers came in with a short-handed cast at RB and WR and the Chargers netted 319 passing yards. In fact the Indy defense has allowed over 1,000 passing yards in three home games without an interception, none of the games vs. teams likely heading to the playoffs. They really are bad, but does this past Sunday require an *?
This was the first time any team had ever played the week after a game in London. Do we attach fatigue as a carry-over to that dismal defensive box score? While the Colts are certainly entitled to use that as an excuse, I have not read it from any of the players or coaches yet. I do have a mindset to downgrade a little, if only for the fact that when I look at the Chicago offensive depth chart for Sunday, and the statistics, it is almost impossible for an NFL defense to have been that bad.
Item: And on to the MLB Diamonds
How about this for plot twists in the post-season; as of 8 AM Pacific, still no commitment from either Dave Roberts on who the Dodgers starting pitcher will be today (Kershaw/Urias), nor from Dusty Baker with the Nationals (Ross/Lopez). So that means any game discussion will come in the follow-up thread as the day evolves. But Eric Strasser, better known as Palmtree around these parts, is in play in San Francisco tonight, and the price point is holding up –
Giants +113
I think Lackey is very gettable, and last night's game just fed the narrative about the Giants and elimination games. Cubs have been overpriced in every game so far, and they're about a dime too high tonight. Bochy is going to have to find some outs from a bullpen that's pretty worn down, but he knows how to play this type of game. Maddon made multiple mistakes last night, and I give Bochy the edge in what will certainly be another close game.
Vegas: Monday with the Review Journal NFL box score page
Back when Siro Maccioni’s Circo was open at the Bellaggio, a well-known Las Vegas food critic and I used to banter, with the proper spirit intended, that if indeed there was a culinary “Lamb of God, that takes away the sins of the world”, it was the pistachio-crusted rack they served there. Circo has been closed for a few years but there is still something in our fair city that fits the lofty description, albeit of a completely different style and price point. And every so often there will be a hankering for that lovely creation, which means a trip over to Barbacoa Kings (2115 North Decatur).
This is another on the continuing theme of places that do what they do with a lot of integrity, which is why a little mom-and-pop place in a sketchy strip mall is now into their 12th year in business. This is the Orneles family putting their pride onto each plate, the matriarch from Guadalajara, patriarch from Hidalgo, and now the second generation working the restaurant with them. The name was Tacos El Rodeo for the first decade, believing that generic was best, which was the case when they first opened, the Las Vegas Mexican culinary scene still in its infancy. Since then there has been a tremendous growth, and the new name gets to the heart and soul of what they do - when they call it “Barbacoa Estilo Hidalgo”, or Hidalgo-Style barbecue, their audience knows just what that means.
The menu runs the gamut of offerings, and you won’t go wrong with much of anything on it, because they will only serve you what they know they can make well. But what you want is the lamb, specifically listed on the menu as “Estilo Hidalgo”, slow-cooked wrapped in maguey leaves. You order by the amount, which can be great for large carry-outs, in my case a half-pound, which comes with a basket of three freshly made tortillas and some limes, and will only set you back $9. You also want a bowl of the lamb consome as well. Chopped onion and cilantro can be found at their salsa bar, as well as three distinct home-made salsas (you’ll be given a basket of chips as soon as you sit down), and you will best enjoy the meat as a taco, wrapping each one up to your own preference, and then using the consome French-dip style. When a family takes a major pride in their cooking of a particular dish, get that dish.
Having the Orneles clan in Las Vegas all of these years has been a blessing for those of us that not only want to eat well, but also prefer to not get up from the table still hungry. You do not feel like you are sitting in their restaurant; you feel as though you are sitting in their home kitchen.
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