PB – March 21
What a “Bettor Better Know” – Weekend Hoops…The Powers That Be just “Couldn’t Get it Right” (though Colin Cooper and the band sure did, for so long)…The Spurs defense is great, the Clippers defense stinks, and tonight we will see what kind of heart the Hornets defense has…
For all of the references as being the Big Dance, sometimes a better way to look at the NCAA tourney is being a game of musical chairs, and the opening rounds to the 2016 showcase have offered vivid examples, teams being eliminated because the music stopped playing just a flicker of time before they could find a place. The Sweet 16 brings the promise of more of the same; it would not be a shock for any of those matchups to be in doubt to the final possessions. But for all of the drama that the tournament has brought, the true basketball afficionado cannot help but walking away feeling that this all could have been better. So this week the review gets split up a bit, today focusing on some general issues, and the rest of the week will delve more deeply into how those results set up the various sugar levels for the Sweet 16.
Item: The Powers That Be just “Couldn’t Get it Right” (yes, it is actually a handicapping point)
Going on a rant about the inefficiencies, and subsequent inequalities, of this year’s tournament is actually shooting fish in a barrel, which makes it the sort of thing I try to avoid here. Except that it does bring some genuine handicapping points into play, and that makes it worth examining.
Try as they might (although perhaps part of the problem is that they did not try hard enough), the various components involved in putting the tourney together stumbled across the board, though many of the flaws get forgotten quickly as the audience becomes enthralled with some of the thrilling endings the first two rounds generated. So with another long Monday read ahead it is time to head to the jukebox again to ease the path, this time celebrating some folks that did know what they were doing, the vastly under-rated Colin Cooper and the Climax Blues Band, and the appropriate “Couldn’t Get it Right”, so fortunately recorded for posterity from a small club in Hamburg in 2004.
This was late-career Cooper, already fighting the battle with cancer that would remove him from life’s grand stage a few years later, but what he and the band did on that stage for nearly four decades was vastly under-appreciated. The key is the reference to being “on stage”, because that was their place, not a studio (if you are unfamiliar, consider FM Live as a great primer). They were among the pioneers in making the connection of Blues to Rock and Roll, and that is something best done on the live stage, without the constraints that a timed recording bring.
Last Monday there was a reference here to how badly the committee had stumbled, in particular their unexpected love of the Pac 12, and the results through the weekend did not do either the committee, or that conference, proud. Only Oregon survived among the seven entrants, but more important for our purposes is that all six of the teams that were eliminated fell to lower seeds. The betting markets knew better than the committee, of course, with four of those lower seeds being favored, and #11 Wichita State closing at pick’em vs. #6 Arizona. There needed to be better basketball people in that room, not just in terms of the particulars of the seeding, but also in a general concept they botched, but matters to the handicapper (in the meantime, let’s get all of that Pac 12 bashing going out there across the Sports Mediaverse, fanning those flames as much as possible, so that we can lay some Oregon -1.5 come Thursday)...
Item: What “winning” means
Perhaps the most egregious failure by the committee was their failure to grasp opportunity this year, not recognizing the abilities of mid-majors like Valparaiso, Saint Mary’s and Monmouth that did not win their conference tourneys, and instead opting for relative dullards from the power ($$$) conferences. There is something to file away there in terms of looking for first-round upsets. They often happen from scrappy teams that have a legacy of winning games, and bring the confidence to get over the hump in clutch late-game situations.
Where do upsets not come from nearly as often? Teams that are already accustomed to losing. The committee could have easily shifted gears this season but lacked the foresight, or perhaps the fortitude, which is why Vanderbilt (19-14), Texas Tech (19-13), Oregon State (18-13), Colorado (21-12) and Tulsa (21-12) ended up getting rewarded for vast swaths of mediocrity. Teams like that do not bring the mindset that leads to upsets, having already grown cozy with defeat, and I have no explanation whatsoever for how Oregon State got a #7 seed.
Item: CBS/TBS Sports are not major players
Putting the selections in the hands of a committee that is under-qualified is a bad way to start the tourney. Handing it over to a joint-venture network that is not a major player on the sports front then exacerbates things. The television folks make choices that impact outcomes, which means that they impact power ratings as well, and it is something that we have to play along with.
Wouldn’t it be nice if we could get those powers to take a pledge at the very start, perhaps in this case calling it the “Hipocrytic Oath”, a simple promise that -
The integrity of the competition is the first and foremost purpose of the tournament, and television shall do nothing to inhibit that competition, nor penalize or reward any of the particular teams…
But that ain’t gonna happen. A combination of the television folks and the committee stumbled right out of the gate with Connecticut, forcing the ridiculously short turnaround of the Huskies going from a Sunday afternoon conference tourney championship in Orlando to having the first tipoff in their region on Thursday. The committee could have easily slotted them for a Friday game; or television could have put the Huskies into a late tipoff to create more fairness. Kevin Ollie’s team won that first round game anyway, fortunately only drawing a Pac 12 opponent, but you could see in that sluggish first half how long it took them to settle in (they trailed 36-27 at halftime before the legs loosened up).
Who also got erroneously placed into an early Thursday game? Purdue/Arkansas-Little Rock, who each had played conference finals on Sunday. And I can cut-and-paste from last Monday to set the stage for how that played out –
"For Purdue and Arkansas-Little Rock it is also the tough turnaround from a Sunday conference title game to a Thursday afternoon tipoff, and in this case it may be magnified by the Denver altitude, which can be a factor for teams that may show up with a little fatigue. But CBS was not going to give those teams the last game of the day to help alleviate that; that honor was naturally bestowed on Gonzaga/Seton Hall. Pay close attention to Arkansas-Little Rock/Purdue because it is not just the Thursday game that is an issue, but the prospect of the winning team carrying that fatigue into Saturday."
Yes, the fact that the Thursday opener extended into overtime worked against UALR, but the Trojans should not have been forced into playing that sequence. They might not have been able to beat Iowa State anyway, but what about Wichita State vs. Miami?
For Gregg Marshall’s Shockers to have to tipoff shortly after Noon Eastern on Saturday was absolutely a power ratings factor, which was discussed in the weekend thread. It was bad enough for them to have to play three tourney games in five days, but what sort of basketball incompetence in the television offices takes Wichita from the latest Thursday tipoff in that region into the earliest Saturday start? This was a traveling violation by the television folks because the setting should have been a lay-up. If Wichita State/Miami and Yale/Duke were going to be stand-alone Saturday games, how damn easy would it have been to reverse the starting order? Yale and Duke were off of Thursday afternoon wins, so a Noon start would not have been any issue at all. That would have then given Wichita a couple of extra hours of rest before facing Miami, and if you watched that one closely you saw the early fatigue issue the Shockers had to play their way through. It was the worst of dumb decisions by the television folks because there was no particular cause for the error, and in that instance may well have turned the outcome of the game.
And then on to Saturday night, or in the case of Providence/North Carolina, late, late into Saturday night. If the final two television slots were going to be that game, and Gonzaga/Utah, how much easier would it have been to have the North Carolina tipoff an hour earlier, and Utah an hour later, especially since the latter game was being played two time zones to the west?
These are inexcusable botches, but they come from a joint network that simply does not have a whole lot of experience, neither being huge players across the 12 month sports calendar. In a better world we would not have to alter power ratings for that kind of silliness, but it is part of the game now, so we must accept it.
Item: And if you are not a major sports television player, it also means your roster is short on “players”
One last bit that matters for now, before pushing some college stuff to tomorrow so that I can get to the NBA, especially since a few of the talking points make it to the Monday board. Because the CBS/TBS grouping is a lightweight one across the sports calendar, it also means a lack of personnel. In particular, their studio shows are abysmal, with air time filled by those that simply do not watch a lot of college basketball.
Many folks like Charles Barkley, and I can understand why, his style bringing a lot of appeal. But Barkley began this tournament with a positive take on the Pac 12, noting that he watched the conference a lot because he lived in Arizona. What he was saying, in essence, is that he did not watch many of the others. Part of the handicapping process is to find information wherever available, which includes following the commentary of those that truly know the sport. In this instance we are left with precious little, the studio crew not even trying all that hard. Seriously, if you knew that your job in March was going to be spending several on-air hours talking about college basketball, wouldn’t truly professional analysts at least do a little homework over the course of the season. So if you are watching these broadcasts closely and looking to find some advantages, be careful with your takeaways. The guys getting most of the air time do not bring much college basketball knowledge, nor are they bringing much effort (at times like this you really do miss Seth Greenberg).
There is more to come on the college front tomorrow, but I do not want to run this out too far, and the next take is one that you likely won’t expect – the officiating in college basketball is actually much better than most folks think. But now on to the NBA, where there was also one particularly intriguing Saturday result…
Item: How to remember the Alamo (the Spurs had one hell of a defensive week)
As part of the prelude to Warriors/Spurs on Saturday night, there was a focus here on how tempo would not only play a major part in the proceedings, but also become a prime storyline for Steve Kerr and his team going forward, the prospect of three of their four playoff series being against teams near the bottom of the NBA’s tempo charts. And indeed it was a win for San Antonio, both in terms of tempo and defense. It ended a rather remarkable week for the Spurs on those two fronts.
Gregg Popovich and his team faced the daunting challenge of facing the other three prime Western Conference contenders in a span of 8 days, with playoff-bound Portland also thrown in for good measure. But in the three major step-ups, look at just how good the defense was -
PPG vs. SA PP100 vs. SA
GS 115.4 (#1) 79 112.8 (#1) 88.4
OKC 109.8 (#2) 85 110.2 (#2) 91.5
LAC 106.4 (#6) 87 104.6 (#6) 1.00
They held the Warriors, Thunder and Clippers to a combined 72.6 points below their full-season averages, or 24.2 per game. And yes, tempo had a lot to do with that, but check those two columns to the right, which is based on pure offensive efficiency. They were damn good there as well.
Having said that, let’s also not attach too much weight to Saturday night’s grinder, because the Warriors were without a couple of their keys for that kind of game, Andrew Bogut and Andre Iguodala. Kerr countered by going extra small, with Draymond Green technically starting at center, and with Marreese Speights being the only other big man to get to 10 minutes, Speights only going 10:56. As such it was no surprise that San Antonio dominated the boards 53-37, but the quickness of the Warriors did force the Spurs into the unusual ratio of as many turnovers (17) as assists. But since we are not likely to see that exact lineup configuration again, treat it gently, especially because that smaller Golden State lineup also meant Tim Duncan only played 8:00.
Earlier in the season it was noted how the San Antonio defense is at a historical level in a 95.6 efficiency count, but that it needed to be taken with a grain of salt because the front part of the schedule was soft. You can absolutely take it seriously now, except for perhaps one particular recent reference*…
Item: *How bad are the Clippers right now
Within the span of seven days Doc Rivers and his team ran into the Thunder, Cavaliers and Spurs, and got whipped by a combined 57 points. They just had no answers against that class. Over the weekend, they ran into a Memphis team without Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Matt Barnes, and a New Orleans team without Anthony Davis, Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon and Norris Cole, the Pelicans reserve cast consisting of Alonzo Gee, Tim Frazier and Kendrick Perkins. And the Clippers did not have the answers against them either. LAC looked like a worn out and gassed team, the defensive intensity that had picked it up to counter the long-term absence of Blake Griffin just a shell of what we were seeing before the All Star break.
They were a step slow vs. the under-manned Grizzlies, allowing them to get to the FT line for 36 attempts, where they made 29. They were a step slow vs. the under-manned Pelicans, allowing them to get to the line for 40 attempts, of which they made 32. How bad was the effort? Let J. J. Redick paint the portrait - "I just think our spirit isn't great right now. We've just got to be more together and fight more. You can talk about Xs and O's all you want, but as a player you can feel it when your spirit isn't right."
How bad does it look when breaking down the numbers? Through 10 March games the Clippers rate #23 in the NBA in defensive efficiency. They do get a couple of days off before concluding their road trip, but they next take the court at Golden State on Wednesday, arguably the worst place for a slumping and worn out defense to have to guard someone. This may not get better anytime soon.
Item: Did the Hornets already bump heads into their ceiling?
Last Monday there was a take here on a Charlotte surge that had put the Hornets in position to finish as high as #3 in the Eastern Conference, and in truth that goal is still there. If they do not reach it this past week can easily be to blame, in particular home games in which they faced the slumping Mavericks and Nuggets, and lost outright in both. It was not just that they lost, but how they lost, that matters - Charlotte only had the lead once in either game, 3-2 vs. Denver in the opening stage. That was all. The momentum of a seven-game win streak crashed against Dallas, and the seeming high from a key road win at Miami on Thursday was negated by the sluggish effort vs. the Nuggets, a game in which the Hornets came up 17 points short of the market projection.
The takeaway? Perhaps it leads back to what had impressed most about the team before those clunkers – the chemistry and focus they had shown in putting the positive run together, the whole seemingly greater than the sum of the parts. And HC Steve Clifford reinforced that after Saturday’s loss - “Approach is everything. We have a good team, actually to me a very good team when we’re right. But we’re not beating any team in this league if we’re not right. There are only four or five teams in this league who are good enough to show up, not play their A-game and win. If we’re not going to have everybody pretty much engaged and playing well we don’t beat anybody.”
Tonight the challenge becomes a bigger one as the Spurs come to town, providing a prime opportunity for the Eye Test in terms of seeing the energy and confidence the Hornets bring. The key is to classify whether this is a developing team with upside, or if perhaps that recent positive run was instead one of them already reaching their ceiling.
The complete Point Blank Archive
U.S. Election 2016: The Perils of Polls
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)