Point Blank – February 25
That new Dynamic Duo in the Pacific Northwest (On the Oregon Trail, Part I)…Some Rays of Hope in Tampa…Yes, you do credit the Beavers with a win and tag the Huskies with a loss (On the Oregon Trail, Part II)…It is time to get Bearish on Cal…
The NBA, the MLB Diamonds and the NCAA courts all bring prime topics today, so let’s get to it.
Item: If you don’t know how good the Lillard/McCollum tandem is yet, turn on TNT tonight
The TNT cameras do not get to the Pacific Northwestern often, the Trail Blazers not having been all that relevant for a while, winning just one playoff series over the last 15 seasons, and in seven of the last 12 campaigns not qualifying at all. But those cameras will be there tonight, and that means an opportunity to watch one of the best emerging stories in the NBA this season, that back-court combination of Damion Lillard and C. J. McCollum.
There was a brief mention of the duo when discussing one of the prime reasons the Warriors were so good in a column last Friday, noting that while a significant amount of college experience from the key cogs has helped Golden State to develop that special polish, the Portland back-court just happened to be comprised of a true rarity in this age – two four-year college players in Lillard and McCollum. The Trail Blazers just happened to go out and crush the Warriors 137-105 that night, part of a surge that has seen them go 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS over the last 18 games, a streak that ironically began after they had been drubbed by 20 at home vs. Golden State.
In order to consider just how good that guard tandem has been, we can take a couple of perspectives. First note that the starting front-court since the All Star break has been Al-Farouq Aminu, Noah Vonleh and Mason Plumlee, and to play winning basketball with that group indeed requires great guard play. But for some even more interesting perspective, let’s compare the Lillard/McCollum production to the current gold standard, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson -
L/M C/T
Minutes: 71 67
Points: 46.2 50.4
Assists: 11.5 8.8
Rebounds: 7.8 9.1
Steals: 2.3 2.8
Closer than you expected, isn’t it? Yet there has not been a whole lot of notoriety yet. The question now becomes just how good this duo can become if they stay together, with this being a case of more than just talent, but also chemistry. Let’s start with Lillard - "It's coming together quicker than everybody expected - except for us two. We are friends. I want to see him do well, he wants to see me do well. I think it's the fact that we spend so much time around each other; whereas you play with a guy and he might be in competition with you, trying to one-up and all of that stuff. We spend so much time around each other that that makes it even more easy."
An interesting take from GM Neil Oshley laments that fate did not allow the connection to come together earlier - "They are our two best passers, our two best shooters and our two best scorers. The irony is, if C.J. doesn't get hurt in camp as a rookie, then we were having this conversation two years ago. He was that good."
How long can Portland maintain this pace? It is going to be interesting to follow. One of the reasons why Terry Stotts is able to get away with that lackluster front-court is because of how dynamic the guards are, which also means that he can spot some capable role players off the bench, with Allen Crabbe, Meyers Leonard, Ed Davis, Maurice Harkless and Gerald Henderson able to contribute. They are not good enough to beat the Warriors, Spurs or Thunder in a first-round series, but they are sitting in the #6 seed now, and with Marc Gasol’s season finished they are more than capable of passing the Grizzlies and moving up to the #5. Give them an opening series against the Clippers and it could get interesting, damn interesting.
Item: Palmtree is back on the Mound
Time for the second offering for the 2016 MLB season from Eric Strasser, better known as “Palmttree” around these parts, author of “Betting Baseball for Profit” and all around good guy. The first pitch was on the Florida Marlins Over, now time to head across the state -
Tampa Bay Rays over 81 -110
The Rays won 80 games last year, while scoring two more runs than they allowed. They finished 42 – 42 at home and 38 – 40 on the road (they played an extra home series against the Orioles after the riots in Baltimore). They were the definition of a .500 team. This year they are much better.
In winning 80 games, the Rays got nothing from Alex Cobb who missed the season to have Tommy John surgery. He’ll be back for the 2nd half. They endured 12 terrible starts from Matt Moore, who returned too soon from his own TJ surgery and was not ready to pitch in the big leagues. Early indications are he’s throwing the ball much better the spring. In fact, the Rays got only 101 starts from guys expected to be in this year’s rotation not named Moore (Odorizzi, Smyly, Archer and Erasmo Ramirez). There were 61 games started by Nate Karns, Steve Geltz, Alex Colome and the aforementioned Moore. When they did pitch the starters were very good, all four guys mentioned worked to a WHIP of 1.15 or below. Add in former #1 pick Blake Snell (ERA around 1.50 and almost 10 K/9 innings in 21 starts at AA and AAA in 2015), plus the return of Cobb before the All-Star break, and you’ve got a tremendous rotation. The bullpen struggled last year and Jake McGee is gone to Colorado, so that’s an area that needs to be fixed. The additions of Danny Farquhar and Ryan Webb should help, and LHP Enny Romero is the early star of camp.
The offense looks to me like it’s finally ready to score 700 runs. The addition of Corey Dickerson hasn’t caused too many waves, but I think he changes the entire lineup for the better. I’m on record saying Dickerson will win an MVP before he’s through. He had plantar fasciitis last year that destroyed his entire season for the Rockies, but when healthy all he does is hit line drives, and he will protect Evan Longoria. Desmond Jennings is finally healthy, Logan Forsythe had a .800 OPS last year and Kevin Keirmaier is just reaching his enormous potential.
With Curt Casali behind the plate, Brad Miller and Forsythe at shortstop and 2nd base and the best defensive outfielder in baseball in Keirmaier in center the Rays are very strong defensively up the middle. They can win with pitching and defense, but as mentioned the offense will be much improved.
Fangraphs predicts the Rays to win 82 games, but Baseball Prospectus has them with 91. Quite frankly that scares the hell out of me. The division is solid but there will be very few days where the opponent starts a better pitcher. The interleague games are against the NL West with a few added against in-state rival Miami. If Alex Cobb can make 18 starts and Blake Snell is what I expect, I see the Rays as an 87 win team the challenges for the division title.
About Last Night…
Yes, much like Grayson Allen’s game-winner for Duke vs. Virginia a while back was actually a traveling violation not called, Oregon State’s Stevie Thompson took an extra step on that final shot of Oregon State’s 82-81 thriller over Washington. It was a clear travel, but while the officials could go to replay to determine if the shot was taken in time, they could not use the replay to call the violation.
It brings up a handicapping question that is often posed – what is the best way to grade such a play going forward, and the answer is not a simple one. In terms of Oregon State offense and Washington defense, it would be proper to throw the shot out. The Beavers do not deserve a credit, nor the Huskies a punishment, for a shot made after what had been a travel. But in terms of the game outcome, it should go in your books the way that it does officially. The key there is that Oregon State will absolutely get a psychological boost from such a victory, which means that regardless of how the final play happened, the outcome is a plus for the Beavers, and should be handled in the power ratings accordingly.
The flip side is that it cannot help but be a downer for Washington, the Huskies falling to 16-12, and now forced to win the Pac 12 title to make it into the NCAA tournament. Watching Lorenzo Romar’s freshmen-dominated team play this season has brought one of the more unique rides I can ever recall – in 11 of their 16 conference games the scoreboard margin was sitting on two points or less in the final minute of regulation. But after winning some of those close calls early, including a 3-1 in overtime decisions, the last four games in that category have been defeats, which may take a toll. As such, grading the game as a loss is the best way to proceed with them going forward.
In the Sights…
One of the first notions proposed here for this college basketball season was how much upside Cuonzo Martin’s roster had in Berkeley, with talented freshmen Ivan Rabb and Jaylen Brown joining a veteran cast, and as Martin begins to find the best fit for the various pieces the puzzle is coming together, so much so that #760 California First Half (9:00 Eastern) is a fit tonight, with -3.5 commonly available in the early markets.
The Golden Bears are on a 5-0 SU and ATS run in February, and indirectly it was through misfortune, the loss of Tyrone Wallace for nearly a month, that has turned out to be a plus. It meant more time for Sam Singer in the rotation, who is more of a pure point guard that helped the offense to find a better flow, and the return of Wallace has not disrupted anything, with depth now being a major plus – he had averaged 34 minutes through the first five Pac 12 games, but that has dropped to 26 in his four games back, the entire team playing more efficiently. And a defense that had a chance to be special with Rabb and 7-1 soph Kingsley Okoroh patrolling the paint has indeed been that – they are #1 in the nation in guarding two-point attempts, allowing only 40.4 percent to be made.
So why focus on the First Half? Partially because Cal has bolted from the gate well at Haas Pavilion, where the Bears are unbeaten this season, out-scoring opponents by 69 points in the opening stanza of seven Pac 12 games, including beating Oregon, Oregon State, Utah and Colorado by 49 in the four games with Wallace healthy, and with a “White Out” in front of the ESPN2 cameras tonight the atmosphere will add to that early energy. There is also a downside to a full game ticket – the one genuine weakness the Golden Bears have is at the FT line, where only Jordan Mathews is shooting better than 69 percent. Those problems at the line could leave the back-door open in the late stages, so I will put the focus on the first 20 minutes, and anticipate the Cal energy and defensive intensity opening a lead against a UCLA team that brings far less focus on the defensive end.
The complete Point Blank Archive
U.S. Election 2016: The Perils of Polls
@PregamePhd (a work in progress, feedback appreciated)