Point Blank – October 22
A Market without Goliath, a Defense without a Pass Rush, and an opportunity in KC…
The World Series began last night with about as little money moving across the various Sports Book counters, either for Game #1 or tickets on the Series winner, as any that most I spoke to could recall. Some may blame it on the lack of key media cities pumping up the volume, literally, but it also comes down to one of those aspects of the Sports Betting Marketplace that can genuinely cause confusion – sometimes the public needs a powerful team, as a base to help better understand the relative merits of the others. It is not just the usual comfort of looking for the behemoth to dominate someone, but also of where and when to aim the slingshot to take a power down. Without Goliath, where does a David find a target? So welcome to Giants/Royals, as well as the current NFL season, with a key second point to follow – what is wrong with the one NFL team that seemingly had a chance for greatness, the Seahawks?
After the Patriots won, but did not cover, against the Jets on Thursday night, the rest of the NFL board brought an unusual distribution – no favorites by more than a full -7. This week’s board is similar – it will not be until Monday night that any team is projected to win by more than a TD. Cycles like this can actually impact handle a bit, because the betting public does not have the comfort of something that can genuinely trust - a very good team at the top that they can not only back with confidence, but that they can also use as the foundation to help rate the others.
While there are obviously the risks of the superior teams being overloaded in parlay cards and teasers, is it actually better for the Sports Books when there are dominant teams for the bettors to key off of? To sort through this, it was time to contact Bob “Damn those cords to ‘Kansas City/Hey-Hey-Hey-Hey’ are tough “ Scucci, Race and Sports Book Director for Boyd Gaming. And Scooch put it into perspective -
“I think the bettors are more active when there are great teams. When there is parity like there is now, bettors feel as if they are losing one of their betting options. When there are dominant teams and big point spreads, bettors feel like they have a few options: they can bet the team to just win the game, either in a money line parlay, or in a teaser, or they can say they think it will be a blowout, and the team will cover the spread. I think a large segment of the betting public likes to know that a team is a “lock” to win the game, and the only question is how much they will win by.”
“With all these short point spreads, the bettors are forced to often just pick the winning team, which seems to be a tougher proposition, even if it is only perception. Handle definitely drops. There are less money line parlays, and less teasers. Just look at the Super Bowls as examples. It is much more exciting, betting-wise, when one team is a 7-point favorite as opposed to a pick'em game. With a 7-point favorite, there is always that 2-part question: Do you think they will win, and do you think they will cover.”
But for now, that is both the World Series, and the NFL season, that the cards have dealt. While the baseball is unlikely to magically pick up the next couple of days, is there at least optimism for Sunday’s? Jay Kornegay, the wizard behind the curtain at the Westgate Superbook, remains optimistic - “It’s the NFL, they love it and can’t get enough of it. The popular teams or the better teams will always be separated out of the pack. Even though these favorites will somewhat change week to week, there will always be popular teams. The current teams that top this list would be the Broncos, Colts, Packers and Cowboys.”
The challenge is that the better teams are not already defined for the marketplace by the pointspread. The Colts and Cowboys have become popular with the public in recent weeks, but precious few wanted them earlier in the season, and in fact those two teams in particular have given some sharps their comeuppance. So now there is a scramble to determine who really is elite, or can earn that status in the week’s ahead. That means opportunity for the serious handicapper. But as always, to best gauge what is next means the proper review of what just happened. So now it is time for those Seahawks…
Sackless in Seattle
The NFL appeared to have a potential Goliath this season; the way that Seattle dominated Denver almost required larger Super Bowl rings for a proper inscription. Yet six games into the season the Seahawks are 3-3, and there are some ominous aspects. Two weeks ago the Cowboys flat-out pushed them around in a Stadium in which they had built up quite a swagger. And while special teams were the keys for St. Louis on Sunday, there are some takeaways from that box that scream for attention – when Austin Davis goes 19-22, with no sacks or interceptions, there are issues. So let’s get to them. Is this merely the kind of funk that many teams go into after a big season, which the Seahawks can snap out of, or is there something genuine?
It does not take long to find the flaw. The offense is fine, showing the potential to be better than it was in that Super Bowl run. Russell Wilson sports a 101.9 Passer Rating, slightly better than his 101.2 of 2013, and it has been 5.4 yards per rush attempt, more than a yard better than the 4.3 of LY. Is it bothersome that Marshawn Lynch has gone six straight games without reaching 100 yards? It is not his decline, his own yards per rush are up, but rather the fact that an inability to get the other team off the field has limited his touches. Which takes us to the crux of the matter…
The rush defense has actually been terrific, allowing just 3.2 per attempt, down from 3.9. But what had been a superb pass defense, one that handled Peyton Manning with remarkable ease in February, has fallen across the board. Completion percentage has gone from 59.0 to 68.4. Yards per pass from 5.8 to 7.1. After allowing 16 TD passes in 2013 they have already given up 12. There were 28 INTs LY; now only two. The sack percentage has fallen from 7.7 to 3.2. Those are frightening declines, and that is where the microscope must come out.
One of the under-rated keys to the 2013 run was a deep and talented DL that was able to keep constant pressure on by staying fresh – no one was on the field for more than 57 percent of the snaps. Hence, no player had the chance to pile up gaudy individual stats. When it really is a team effort it can be difficult to properly measure the individual components. But Chris Clemons (Jacksonville), Red Bryant (Jacksonville) and Clinton McDonald (Tampa Bay) were lost from that rotation, and now it is a case of not just having lesser talent replacing those three, but losing the options that the depth created. Michael Bennett was on the field for 89.8 percent of the St. Louis snaps on Sunday, and has played 80 percent of the time this season. His last sack came on Week #2 at San Diego. Cliff Avril faced 69.4 percent of the plays at St. Louis. His last sack was in the opener. And that is the storyline to follow. Without the harassment that opposing QBs faced LY, even a secondary this talented can only do so much. Yet this DL will not suddenly get better, especially as the higher play counts wear down the key cogs.
Pete Carroll has been blunt about it - "The inability to affect the quarterback has really been a factor, so there's some things we have to do that will change us a little bit from what we've been in the past.” ?What he is not saying directly, is that more blitz packages can be expected. But is that a fit? In 2013 the Seahawks were #28 in the NFL in the percentage of time they brought an extra rusher. Taking that route more often is a major change.
This is still a strong team, and an absolute Super Bowl contender. Those poor defensive numbers can also be excused by having faced the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, and even Tony Romo. But before you get carried away with shading because of that quartet, add in the Davis numbers from Sunday, and the fact that they did not get an interception vs. Kirk Cousins, which is rather hard not to (zero in 36 attempts vs. the Seahawks, nine in 90 vs. all others). There is a flaw to the defense that can’t be directly fixed, but only schemed around, and that is where the shrewd handicapper can be looking closely for opportunities ahead.
In the Sights…
As for that World Series, there may be investment opportunity tonight. While there is no desire to try to make something happen vs. these bullpens, the fact that they impact the full game Total the way that they do may have opened the door to take on Jake Peavy and Yordano Ventura in the First Half. Over 3.5 can be found at even money, and that is fair against two starters that both bring concerns.
For Ventura, this is not just big-time pressure, but also only his second start in 19 days, having left the last one vs. Baltimore because of tightness in his right shoulder, and note that against the Orioles his average fastball speed was the lowest count of the season. Meanwhile Peavy will carry the mantle of a veteran that can handle the playoff pressure, but that has not really been the case in recent years. It was a 7.11 allowance in three appearances with the Red Sox last October, and this time around he had more walks than strikeouts in two outings vs. the Nationals and Cardinals in the NL playoffs, laboring to 18.6 PPI over those games. Now at over 200 innings for the season there should not be a fear of anything magical coming from his right arm, and the usual World Series edge to a pitcher vs. a non-league opponent is also not there – the projected KC starters have had 154 career plate appearances against him.