Point Blank – October 13
What a “Bettor Better Know” – NCAA #7
The NCAA Week that Was, and some key items you can incorporate into your own thought processes as the season unfolds…
Item: Measuring Baylor’s epic comeback
Many times Championships will have major turning points, a time when a team faced a truly adversarial situation and overcome it. As such, what could be a season for the ages on the banks of the Brazos, may have had such a moment on Saturday.
Last week in this column there was a take on the bad game Bryce Petty had vs. Texas (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1056758.aspx), an outing that was of significance on multiple fronts, as we will get to in this piece. And off of the worst game of his career, Petty faced the kind of setting on Saturday afternoon that can define a QB. His performance through the first three quarters vs. TCU had not been anything special, and when he threw a Pick-Six with 11:39 remaining to put Baylor behind 58-37, the big dreams for the Bears were awfully close to having an alarm clock go off.
Then it turned, and it turned with a remarkable ease. Petty and the Bears reeled off three consecutive TD drives that only needed 14 plays to go 228 yards, using just 0:50, 1:23 and 0:59 of clock time. They did it with such precision that it led Gary Patterson, one of the better defensive minds in college football, to do something that he ordinarily would not do – with the game tied at 58, he gambled on a fourth-and-three conversion with the ball at the Baylor 45, and 1:17 minute remaining. His post-game admission summed it up well – “Even if we kick it to the 5-yard line, I didn’t know if we could have stopped them.”
Some of that is the X’s and O’s of the Art Briles playbook. Some of that is the NFL talent he is recruiting at the skill positions. But much is also the pace at which the Bears play. When they did get the ball after stopping TCU on that fourth-down play, it was their 20th possession, and they finished with 109 snaps, 20 more than the Horned Frogs. It led to another of those key subtleties of football that was talked about here last Wednesday (/pregame-forums/f/14/t/1058201.aspx), and needs to be part of your processes – while Patterson and his players had to be thrilled with getting TDs on both a kickoff return, and that interception runback, those are plays which force the defense back on to the field. Use the Pick-Six as a prime example of the unintended consequences of doing something right – it came on the eighth play of a Baylor drive, and one of the last things that defense really needed right then was to have to stay on the field without a rest. It mattered; they did not make another stop in the game.
Now for some other topics that we can connect to that remarkable turnaround -
Item: Don’t sleep on the Texas defense
It would be easy to neglect Texas right now, with the Longhorns sitting at 2-4 overall and 1-2 in Big 12 play, the opening of the Charlie Strong era being hampered by injuries to an offense that can not be much more than a work in progress this season. But the defensive showing of the past two weeks may have been the best back-to-back games any stop unit has played this season, so take notice.
First was holding Petty to that 7-22-111 line, and it will be a long, long time before anyone holds a Briles offense to that kind of passing efficiency. That can get lost in a 28-7 final score, even though the game was only sitting on 7-0 in the middle of the third quarter, those points coming on the return of a blocked FG by the Bears. Meanwhile allowing 31 points on the scoreboard to Oklahoma will also not force many to take an immediate second look, but there is plenty to see – the Sooners were held to 11 first downs and 232 yards, including only moving the chains once in the first half.
Through three Big 12 games, Texas has allowed 31-73 through the air, for just 380 yards. Stifling Kansas does not mean much, but the pass defense vs. explosive Baylor and Oklahoma attacks the past two weeks was special. To set some perspective, Texas held those two teams to 33 first downs and 622 yards; a good TCU defense allowed them to go for 58 and 1,243. At least the first foundation of the Strong building process is firmly in place.
Item: Does Michigan State have depth issues?
Let’s delve into another aspect of that Baylor rally, and how it impacted Patterson’s decision making at the end of the game. In gambling with his offense, instead of putting the onus on his defense, Patterson told us plenty. Did Michigan State’s Mark Dantonio also send a message at Purdue? Dantonio is from the Patterson mold, a guy that has a defense-first philosophy to winning games. So when he gambled on a fake punt Saturday, with his Spartans facing a fourth-and-6 from their own 29-yard line up 14 in the fourth quarter, it was again time to take notice.
The gamble failed, and three plays later the lead was only 38-31. The Boilermakers even got the ball back with 2:59 remaining and a chance to tie the game, before Austin Appleby threw a Pick-Six that finally clinched the proceedings. Why would Dantonio take such a gamble? Could it be that he also had lost a little faith in this team’s ability to close out a game? The Spartans were dented for game-closing runs of 28-0 by Oregon and 19-0 by Nebraska, though they still managed to survive the latter outright, and that can not help but weigh on his decision-making processes.
A couple of issues show. First is that while the defense may be among the nation’s best, it is not up to the 2013 level, in terms of quality or depth – Oregon, Wyoming, Nebraska and Purdue did not punt in the fourth quarter (Purdue was at least forced into a punt situation on the final possession, but went for it on fourth-and-17). And then there is that matter of a power ground game to work the clock with a lead. There were 16 State offensive snaps in the final stanza on Saturday, not counting two kneel-downs at the end. On only seven of them did a RB carry the ball, with eight pass attempts by Connor Cook, and a keeper by Cook, on the other nine. That ratio speaks volumes, given the mediocre quality of the competition.
Item: Georgia, without Gurley
It might be easy to make a bold case that Georgia was just fine without Todd Gurley, after the Bulldogs thrashed Missouri 34-0. But that would not be accurate – they really did miss the best RB in the nation. Freshman Nick Chubb was able to step up and carry a major workload, with 38 rush attempts and four pass receptions, but those runs only amounted to 143 yards, at 3.8 per carry. The offense netted just 379 yards in 87 snaps, and none of those plays gained more than 18.
Instead, this one was mostly about the defense, which is already showing the signs of progress projected under Jeremy Pruitt. Pruitt was a topic for discussion in an early September column, noting a resume that already has a pair of National Championship rings in his possession, coming from stints at Alabama and Florida State. He might be slowly unlocking a Bulldog defense that has performed below the talent level for several seasons, and it was an almost perfect score vs. Missouri – no points allowed, less than 100 yards both running and passing, and five takeaways. But we can not go to a complete A+ because some of the blame falls on the other side of Saturday’s equation…
Item: Missouri’s offense is not SEC-worthy
While the Tigers put together a surprising run to the SEC Championship game LY, that was not the campaign that certified them as “belonging” in the nation’s toughest conference – this year is a major test. Now Gary Pinkel and his staff have to replace some good talent at the skill positions, including the loss of NFL-caliber Dorial Green-Beckham’s dismissal in April. Was the program far enough along that it would be “step right up” to replace those losses on offense. The answer has been a resounding NO.
Three games back the Tigers struggled to put away a bad Indiana defense, which led to a late Hoosier rally to win. Then it was the stirring comeback to capture the SEC opener 21-20 at South Carolina, but even in getting that win note that when they got the ball at their own 32-yard line with 7:25 remaining, they only had 13 first downs and 181 yards. On Saturday there was nary a hint of any kind of rhythm or purpose on offense, and it leads to a comparison that should resonate loudly. Outside of facing the Tigers, Georgia and South Carolina have played seven SEC games, allowing an average of 36.1 points and 440.3 yards. Missouri only managed 10.5 ppg and 223.5 ypg against those defenses. QB Maty Mauk may be a good game-manager type, but lacks the athleticism to be a playmaker. Without some teammates at the skill positions that can stretch the field his limitations come to the forefront, and it is difficult to make adjustments and corrections when the options are so limited.
The plus side is that the scheduling luck of the draw is in play – Mizzou avoids the states of Mississippi and Alabama in SEC play this season, which may keep the weaknesses from showing more fully. But you should already have them set in your files.
Item: UCLA, and understanding the Mora regime
A couple of weeks ago there was a UCLA take that concluded - “There may be less upside than what has been projected, and inconsistency may actually be a hallmark of a Jim Mora program.” Saturday’s showing vs. Oregon offers more on that front, so make sure you do more than just incorporate the misleading scoreboard, and terribly misleading box score, into your databases.
The Bruins were simply out-classed, and trailed 42-10 early in the fourth quarter. From that moment on total offense was 215-26 for Mora’s squad, with the Ducks not throwing a pass during that time. On two of the UCLA TD drives there were fourth-down conversions, and the production came largely against Oregon reserves. File all of that away first, and also the fact that the Bruins were penalized seven times for 81 yards. After finishing #120 in Penalty YPG in 2013, their current #99 may be an improvement, but is still dismal.
But then go beyond the box score. After a heated sideline argument with Mora during the game, first-year DC Jeff Ulbrich took off his head-set and offered to hand in his play card, seemingly ready to walk off the field. He did not quite go that far, but the altercation was in full view of the team on the field, and the cameras sending the game out to the viewing audience (Ulbrich’s take – “I was in a moment where, obviously I lost a little bit of control. And I can’t do that. I can’t do that. That’s not a good message for my players.”)
Mora’s mercurial personality is of the type that will generate excitement, and recruit top talent. It is in whether he can manage a program and develop young athletes that there is an open question. The sum may often end up being lesser than the parts, and note the difficulties in terms of a market meter for gauging their outcomes – if not for that late TD pass to defeat Texas, all six UCLA games would have fallen more than 10 points away from the pointspread, with the Bruins sitting on a 1-5 ATS tally.
Item: The USC defensive depth
The City of Angels has issues across town as well, so let’s do some follow-up with Steve Sarkisian’s Trojans as well. Last Monday the demise of the defense was noted in that shocking late sequence vs. Arizona State, and only a missed FG by Arizona’s Casey Skowron in the closing seconds this past Saturday night kept a second consecutive defeat from hitting the board despite a double-figure lead in the fourth quarter.
The tendency might be to place blame on Sarkisian and DC Justin Wilcox, but that may not be the savvy interpretation – Wilcox indeed turned in a clunker of a game plan at Boston College, but in Pac 12 play, and the tempo that entails, it may be more a matter of depth. The Trojans just do not have the numbers on defense to go hard for the full four quarters at these paces, and in the past two games the defense has been rocked for 33 points and 431 yards in the final period. There is not a tactical X’s and O’s fix for that; it will require a couple of recruiting classes to get back to the full scholarship limits.
Item: Texas A&M had 50 more offensive snaps than the Mississippi schools…
…the last two weeks, yet lost on the scoreboard by 32 over those eight quarters. And it could have been worse – the Aggies trailed Mississippi State 48-17 at 2:30 before scoring two meaningless late TDs, and trailed Ole Miss 35-7 early in the fourth quarter, getting their last six points on the game’s final play. Don’t be fooled by the 766 aerial yards in those two defeats – when you throw 115 passes that count is actually nothing special, and many of the yards came after the outcomes had already been decided.
A big culprit for the demise has been a pass defense that is struggling to make plays – the last A&M interception came in the first quarter vs. Lamar back on September 6, with 165 passes thrown against the defense since then. And it is a pass defense that may be weaker than the numbers can show, with neither of the Mississippi schools attacking that unit in the latter stages the past two weeks (only four pass attempts across the fourth quarter of those games). There is an acknowledgment that Kevin Sumlin's defense is young, with half of the two-deep being freshmen or sophomores. But there also needs to be a question as to whether they also bring the proper talent level and tactics, with the jury still out on DC Mark Snyder.
Item: A Bell rings, for Eastern Michigan
Last Monday there was a take on how Central Michigan was under-valued in the marketplace, because of the absence of Thomas Rawls and Titus Davis in a couple of ugly losses, and also how having a couple of big-time playmakers matters in a conference at the MAC level. Consider just how good Northern Illinois was with Chandler Harnish and Jordan Lynch at QB (and, by the way, how far the Huskies have fallen without them). The Dan LeFevour era with CMU was special. And from a betting standpoint, the ATS run by Kent State as a road underdog with Joshua Cribbs at QB rivals anything in this millennium. Which makes the launch of Reggie Bell for a decrepit Eastern Michigan program something to take note of.
The Eagles went 2-10 or worse four times in the five Ron English seasons, and dropped their MAC opener 31-6 at Akron last week in Chris Creighton’s first conference game. On Saturday they were down 10-0 late in the second quarter vs. Buffalo, having only gained 71 yards to that point, and were apparently on their way to more of the same, when Creighton inserted red-shirt freshman Bell at QB. And perhaps a legend was born. Time will tell whether it was for one day, or a turning point for the program.
From the time Bell entered it was a 37-10 run for EMU, until the Bulls connected on a meaningless TD pass with 0:44 remaining, rolling up 411 yards in 34:15 of game time. The young QB completed 8-13 passes for 144 yards and a TD, and ran 17 times for 202 and three more scores, including breakaways of 72 and 71 yards. It was a shockingly good show from a player who had only been on the field for a brief moment over the three previous games (one rush attempt, no passes). Now the question becomes whether he can be for real, and be yet another dynamic physical specimen that can out-run MAC defenders, or if this was a case of Buffalo not being prepared (in truth, there would have been no reason to have had him in the defensive game plan). But for one afternoon in front of a Homecoming crowd (the 11,886 listed for attendance had to be generous), there was real football magic in Ypsilanti.
Item: A Frank Solich team gets 109 snaps vs. the worst defense in the nation
After noting how athletes can run through MAC defenses, there must be an acknowledgment of how bad things are for Solich and his Ohio Bobcats right now. They have opened conference play 0-2 SU and ATS, losing to the spread by 32 points, showing significant market error. And Saturday’s offensive showing was simply tragic.
Bowling Green came in with the worst defensive numbers in the nation – in five lined games the Falcons were allowing 47.2 points and 609.6 yards per game, putting them on pace to challenge for the dubious honor of being among the worst defenses in NCAA annals. So when Ohio was able to get off 109 snaps against them on a Homecoming afternoon, there could have been something special for the fans returning to Athens. Instead there were only 13 points, and a dismal 4.8 yards per play, versus a defense that had been allowing 7.3.Has a team ever had the ball so much, and accomplished so little?
Want an even worse sign, for a Solich team? How about 16 penalties for 153 yards. That is not the kind of football he has built his coaching career on, which raises a genuine question – has the fire gone out? Unless the Bobcats somehow come together to sweep their remaining schedule, this will be the third consecutive season of a declining win count, and he may not be invited back to run the risk of a fourth.
Item: San Diego State could not give a game away
There have been several takes this season regarding QBs throwing interceptions with a lead, and how they should be penalized even more than usual for those lapses in game management. But that should not always fall on the shoulders of the QB – in some instances we can clearly see that it was the OC creating the opportunity for things to go wrong. The bizarre San Diego State fourth quarter at New Mexico was a classic example on that front.
Leading 24-14 in the final stanza, against a team that lacks a passing game to attack well from behind, Bob Toledo (yes, he is still around) twice dialed up questionable pass plays in good field position. The first was an end-around attempt from Chase Favreau that was picked off by the Lobos at their own 14-yard line. The second came with 9:26 remaining, when Toledo somehow dialed up a long pass attempt from Quinn Kaehler, who had sat out most of the game, and it was an interception at the New Mexico 19. It was bad game management from the top down, not keeping possession and working the clock, on a night on which the ground game was on its way to 397 yards. But there is also a unique twist – those interceptions were part of a remarkable stretch in which the Aztecs turned the ball over four times in six snaps, with a different player responsible for each one. And that was against a defense that had only come up with seven takeaways in the previous 23 quarters of play this season.
It was a questionable display of game management by San Diego State. But even uglier was the fact that New Mexico could not swing a single point on the scoreboard throughout the sequence. Like Bugs Bunny once lamented, Bob Davie may be realizing now that https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8TUwHTfOOU.