Point Blank – August 29
The “Straight and Narrow” of the Playoff Path
There are more than a handful of teams playing on the weekend NCAA gridirons that are legitimate National Championship contenders, most of them in high pointspread ranges. An open question is just how much the new four team playoff format for that trophy changes their approaches. So let’s get to it.
Throughout my my betting life, early-season non-conference games were opportunities for power teams to pile up “Style Points”. The goal was to curry favor from the voters from the outset, taking advantage of the natural human natures of first impressions. But that changes now, and the 2014 campaign is particularly interesting in that regard.
For most of the power teams this season, style points simply do not matter. If you are in the SEC or Pac 12, an unbeaten season has you in the playoff, regardless of the margins of the games. That may be true of the Big 10 and Big 12 as well. That will change the mindset of the savvier coaches, and naturally they are the ones running most of those power programs.
Here is the key – what you do to impress voters, and what you do to have the best chance to win all of your games, are not the same thing. If polls mattered more, leaving the starters on the field deeper into a September blowout is a consideration. But when merely winning the games takes priority, early-season mismatches can be an opportunity to develop depth, especially in those tougher conferences. And there is also a middle ground – welcome to Florida State’s 2014 slate.
Until the BCS title tilt with Auburn, no team came within 14 points of the Seminoles LY, and nine of their wins came by 30 points or more. A survey at this year’s path calls for something similar – put any of their scheduled games on the Saturday docket, and they are at a favorite of at least -17. None of this will be lost on the oddsmakers, who were stung to a 10-3 ATS tune by the ‘Noles LY. But what will Jimbo Fisher’s approach be?
For Fisher, there is no real difference between a score of 42-14 or one of 49-0 this autumn, in terms of the championship possibilities. Just get the win. It will make FSU among the most difficult teams to set a power rating for, because there may be few times in which the starters play anywhere near the full four quarters. At the same time, some opponents may not seriously attempt to challenge them, also reducing the rotation of their own starters to keep them fresh and healthy for other games. There is also an awkward juggling act for Fisher that bears watching – not wanting to embarrass opponents, vs. getting Jameis Winston enough Heisman numbers.
For the other powers it will be a different flow. Nick Saban, Bob Stoops, Gus Malzahn, Urban Meyer, Mark Helfrich and a few others contenders face tougher week-by-week competition, so finding a way to keep their teams healthy through a grind of 13 games (only 12 for Stoops) becomes a priority, instead of posing to win any beauty contests. That really does change the landscape, and it needs to be a part of your thinking each week.
In the NFL, underdogs of +13 or more have been a slow grind seemingly forever. The oddsmakers have never had to adjust too much, since those dogs rarely draw much public money, but the logic is sound – professional teams only get rewarded with a single ‘W’ regardless of how one-sided the scoreboard is. As such, the coaches focus on winning and moving on, using those easier games as a chance to give their teams a breather. We are likely going to see something similar happening across the college ranks in the higher pointspread tiers under the new playoff format (think anything higher than -24 at the start), and that is something for the Eye Test during the opening weekend.
In the Sights…
How about putting today’s prime topic into play this evening? Getting a margin vs. Jacksonville State means precious little in the grand scheme for Mark Dantonio and Michigan State, and a case could be made that the Spartans will be the most distracted team of any on the board in Week #1. That showdown at Oregon next Saturday not only brings major implications in the Championship hunt, but the unique style of the Ducks also requires a different mode of preparation. Dantoni has only gone 2-6 ATS when favored by more than -24, and the State tempo also makes those 34.5’s out there loom large (Fun With Numbers: In only five of 27 games the past two seasons did the Spartans even score more than tonight’s line).
But here is the somewhat sneaky aspect – Jacksonville State can play a little. The Gamecocks made it to the FCS quarterfinals LY, and are rated #8 in the Coaches pre-season poll. While there are often fears of being intimidated, or physically overmatched at the line of scrimmage in this kind of game, note that the defensive two-deep includes DE LaMichael Fanning, an Alabama transfer; NT Allan Carson and DT Greg Clark, who both transferred from Tennessee; LB Nigel Terrell, who played in 11 games for Florida State in that 2013 title run; and SS Debarriaus Miller, who led Southern Miss in tackles LY before transferring. With senior RB DaMarcus James on the Walter Payton watch list there is also a big-time talent to build the offense around (at 5-9/220, he will have NFL scouts watching), and #2 QB Max Shortell, who will split time with Eli Jenkins, is a Minnesota transfer that has four career starts and 170 pass attempts at this level.
About Last Night...
For all of the many fabulous numbers put up by Kenny Hill and the Texas A&M offense at South Carolina, the most impressive may have been 99 snaps without a turnover, at night on the road against what will turn out to be a decent defense.