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I like WEST VIRGINIA +14 at TCU for several reasons.
Dana Holgorsen is super familiar with TCU's offensive system. Check out this article about TCU's co-offensive coordinators Doug Meacham and Sonny Cumbie who both studied under Holgorsen:
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It's no coincidence that West Virginia covered last year and the game was close when these two played. TCU needed a late field goal to win that game by 1 with West Virginia holding them to 31 points, which is low when you consider how explosive their offense was. TCU averaged 531.2 yards per game and West Virginia held them to 389.
I believe TCU's schematic advantage on offense will be diminished against West Virginia.
This is a good spot for West Virginia. They are coming off 3 straight losses and Dana Holgorsen is on the hot seat. We should see a super effort from the players and coaching staff.
West Virginia's three losses have come against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Baylor while TCU has played an easier schedule. In fact TCU hasn't had to play any of those three teams yet. I believe the perception of TCU as an elite team has a lot to with their performance from last season, however they lost a significant amount of players from that team's defense.
West Virginia's offense hasn't seemed as explosive as last season but keep in mind they lost their starting quarterback (Clint Trickett) and top wide receiver (Kevin White). The offense should improve as the season goes on and the new pieces get more experience and develop chemistry. (The offense is actually averaging 485.6 yards per game which is only 5 fewer than last year. In yards per play it is 5.5 this year vs 5.7 last year) West Virginia lost their best defender, safety Karl Joseph, to injury for the season and while it is a huge loss and he can never be replaced the defense is deep and experienced enough to be OK without him. (Update: As Tlr points out it looks like Chestnit and Rumph won't play. This definitely hurts the secondary but I'm still confident the defense will be able to hold their own. The familiarity with the scheme will help compensate for the missing players. Gibson has the troops fired up. It looks like Smallwood (running back) will be good to go. He says he feels good and close to 100%. Also look for junior college transfer Rasul Douglas to get snaps at cornerback. According to Rivals.com he had scholarship offers from Florida State and Georgia.)
The oddsmakers have overreacted to each team's start to the season, haven't priced in a key coaching angle, and haven't accounted for the spot. I see value at +14.
OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATION: WEST VIRGINIA +14
10/29/2015 7:30:00 PM |
CFB Sides |
W. Virginia |
Horned Frogs |
Mountaineers |
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14 (-109) |
Update: I think the familiarity between the coaching staffs benefits West Virginia more than it does TCU. TCU's system has yet to be solved and is a major reason for their success (they do not have top tier recruits but are ranked among teams who do). Therefore I think TCU is at an extra disadvantage against a team who can solve/stop it.