DALLAS COWBOYS –2 over Carolina

Dallas took a tough 2-point loss this week while covering the spread, and will be all out to win this one against a team that will allow Dallas to get well. 

Dallas is better offensively and defensively.  Based on road numbers for Dallas and home numbers for Carolina, Dallas averages 403 yards per game on offense to 326 yards for Carolina, and on defense, Dallas allows an average of just 300 yards per game to their opponents, compared to 400 yards allowed by Carolina.

Those offensive and defensive edges are evenly split between rushing and passing, with Dallas being the better team in both areas.  Dallas’ problem, if any, will be penalties.  Carolina makes many fewer mistakes, and has been penalized at home a huge 51 fewer yards than Dallas on the road.  Those 51 yards, however, do not make up for 177 yard difference between the two, and they are partially compensated by the fact that Carolina has allowed 1 sack in every 12 passes, compared to just 1 sack in every 27 passes for Dallas. 

Take Dallas –2 as my NFL Best Bet of the Day. 

Recommended Money Management for a $100/game Player:

:  There are some lines of 2 –15 out there.  If you see 2 flat paly $198 to win $180.  If you see 2-15 play $184 to win $160.   At -2.5 you can play $176 to win $160.  If the line should go to -3 reduce this to a $154 to win $140 play.