We’ve got an excellent pitching matchup shaping up in Chavez Ravine tonight, weather permitting (rainouts are rare in Dodger Stadium but possible rain is in the forecast). Brandon Beachy (2-1, 0.47 ERA) of the Braves owns MLB’s best ERA and has allowed four hits or fewer in each of his first three outings. Ted Lilly (2-0, 0.69) of the Dodgers opened the season on the disabled list with neck stiffness but has been nearly as sharp in his first two starts. This marks the ‘rubber’ game of this three-game set, as the Dodgers won 7-2 Monday night before the Braves won 4-3 last night, handing LA its first home loss of 2012. The Dodgers opened 7-0 at home this season, averaging 5.1 RPG. However, the team’s lineup was kept in check last night but it’s hard to ignore Matt Kemp batting third followed by Andre Ethier. Kemp leads the majors with a .455 batting average and nine HRs plus is tied with Ethier (.290 with five HRs) for the major league lead with 22 RBI. The Braves are getting the job done at the plate as well, entering this game with wins in 11 of their last 14 games, after opening 0-4. Atlanta leads the NL with 97 runs (5.39 per game) and is tied for second with 21 homers. It’s hard NOT to be impressed with Beachy’s start to the 2012 season but I’m still skeptical. He was 7-3 with 3.68 ERA over 25 starts last year, although the Braves were just 11-14 in those starts. However, let me also note that in going seven and 7.1 innings in his last two outings, it marks just the THIRD and FOURTH times in 31 career starts in which he has made it through at least seven innings! As for Lilly, he came to LA in a trade with the Cubs in 2010 and finished that season 7-4 with a 3.52 ERA in 12 starts (LA was 7-5). He was expected to thrive here in LA but was a disappointing 12-14 with a 3.97 ERA in 33 starts (team was 16-17) last year. However, let me note that Lilly did allow just 172 hits in 192.2 innings. His record should have been better. He’s looked great in his first two starts of 2012 and Dodger Stadium seems the “perfect fit” for him. He’s 5-2 with a 3.86 ERA in 10 career starts vs Atlanta (teams are 6-4) but more importantly let me note that he’s 5-0 with a 2.52 ERA in seven starts against them since suffering a loss while pitching for Oakland back in 2003. I want the vet over the “youngster” here in hopefully not too rainy Chavez Ravine!

Good luck...Larry