Rating: 2-star
Pick: NYK/IND Under 216
Line: -110
Knicks had a +28 rebounding advantage in Game 5, the biggest rebound differential in a playoff game in 10+ years.
In the next game in a playoff series after one team has a 20+ rebound advantage, the game has gone over only 9 times vs. staying Under 26 times, that’s nearly 75% Unders in this scenario.
The logic for this pattern I think is sound and fits into this match-up. The Pacers will have to play bigger and tougher to reverse this devastating result in Game 5. I expect the refs to let both teams play and scrap for loose balls resulting in a stop and start style game.
Additionally, since 2002 Game 6s have gone Under 59% of the time overall, including 8 out of the last 10 times the home team has been playing to keep their season alive.