3* DEN/LAL over 223 - There haven't been many (any?) games go over the posted total in the playoffs and I feel strongly that this one does. Going back to game one the total opened 223ish and climbed up from there, and obviously landed 217. Now we get basically the same total and almost on cue the bettors have been betting under, again, and yet there's limited line movement. It sure looked like an over game in game one a HT, but alas, not so much. In that game the Lakers took 29 three's and made just 27%, which has to improve. In that game the Nuggets took just six free throws, which has to regress as well. It's hard to imagine that Denver scored 64 points in the paint and only went to the line six times. Denver only committed four turnovers, and that should change as well. Denver killed LA on the offensive glass, so LA will have to adjust, creating more FT's for Denver, which is why I do like the Nuggets to cover tonight, but there's also going to be a bit of desperation on the part of the Lakers to not go down 0-2, and it doesn't mean playing better defense, it means scoring more points.
And in an earlier MLB game I bet the following:
1* Red TT over 3.5 runs - Indeed Ranger Suarez has been lights out. Against Colorado and the Pirates. It's also so far beyond anything he's ever done, so regression is due and he's of a CGSO where he threw 112 pitches. Not ideal, and when you add in the Phillies miserable bullpen you have to expect the Reds to score. There's money coming in on the Phillies F5 a bit because of his recent form, but I believe it to be wrong. There's money coming in on the Reds for the game, which I believe to be correct. The only team to hit Greene this year was Milwaukee, who has seen tons of him.