Tampa Bay has close wins against MIN and CHI (was a 3-point game until a pick-6 at the end), two teams with a combined 2-8 record.  They also have a blowout win against the Saints, but let's add some context there.  This was the game that Carr played right after his injury and he was completely ineffective.  None of those team have an effective pass-rush.  The one that team that did, the Eagles, completely dominated the Bucs, outgaining them 6.1 to 4.0 YPP and 7.1 to 4.9 YPA (passing).  The Lions rank right below Philly in pass-pressure rate and I do not expect Mayfield and Co. to have a lot of success in this one.  Lions are a much better team and I like them to dominate an over-rated opponent today

Good Luck