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PLAY: Mets/Cubs OVER
RATING: TRIPLE DIME PLAY
If we didn't have HPU Roberto Ortiz tonight I'd have bet this even bigger. He's a dead nuts under umpire. But, that doesn't mean ALL his games stay under and the total IS only 7.5 in Wrigley. I don't think he can keep this under. Hendricks hasn't pitched in almost a year. He has shoulder surgery and he's made five starts in AAA to rehab. In those starts he's thrown a total of 20 innings with an ERA of 5.75, so not ideal. And that's an average of four innings per start meaning to things. He's probably on a pitch count and we see the Cubs pen for a good while and they've been ugly over the last week. Cubs games have gone over in 11 of their last 12 games! The Mets bullpen hasn't been any better in the last week, with a WHIP of 1.52. Carrasco hasn't been good at all. His only reasonable start was against Oakland, at Oakland, which is a pitchers park extraordinaire. There are FAR too many ways this game goes over than not, and the "than not" is Ortiz, really. If he weren't the HPU this total might be a full run higher.
I see this has gone to 8. I'd still bet it because at 8 it's the difference between a win and a push, not a win or a loss.