Rating: 2-star
Pick: LA Clippers -2 
Line: -115

**Update: Kawhi Leonard was just announced out for personal reasons - and the market moving heavily on that news.  I think the Grizzlies sitting all their starters except for Ja is a more important factor that is being underappreciated by the market.  If you haven't bet yet, I still think there is value on the Clippers +2 and ML.  Personally I am standing pat with my LAC-2 ticket.

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The Grizzlies depth will be tested and ultimately prove ill-equipped for a Clippers team that has been rounding into form with Russell Westbrook finding a solid role as the team's transition generator, while Kawhi has been playing his best ball as the team's half-court lynch-pin.

The Grizzlies are unlikely to have 4 of their top 6 players in this match-up, signaling they view the game as less important than getting guys like Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane rest.  

The Grizzlies have won 7-straight and will have their best player in Ja Morant available - two factors keeping this price down for LAC creating value.  Home underdogs on 4+ game win-streaks are (like the Grizzlies here) are under 45% ATS since 1995 over a 250 game sample size (119-146-5). That hit rate decreases to 42% when the team is an underdog of fewer than 4 points (76-103-5).  This makes sense - the public will take the hot team in the rare spot of being a home underdog - when in reality there are good reasons why the team is the underdog.  In this case, the reality is that the Grizzlies team that created the win streak is not the team the Clippers will face tonight.

03/29/2023 1:52 PM