Saint Mary’s has struggled against the press, and it was particularly glaring against Gonzaga in the WCC title game. VCU forces turnovers at a top 10 rate nationally. The primary ball handler for SMC is a freshman in Aiden Mahaney, who is very good, but will be under duress all game long against Ace Baldwin, one of the best defensive guards in the country.

Both these teams want to play slow, as evidenced by the total. Mary’s struggles with athleticism, but the only team with high level athletes in their conference is Gonzaga, who beat them 2 out of 3 times. They lost to other athletic teams in the non-con in Houston and New Mexico.

Points will be tough to come by for VCU, but I think that cuts both ways enough that they can hang in this number and have a real shot to win the game.