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PLAY: PENN STATE
RATING: TRIPLE DIME PLAY
Penn State +3
Interesting matchup here between two teams that play total opposite games. Penn State is a finesse team that relies solely on hitting shots, namely from superstar guard Jalen Pickett. They protect the ball, but don’t really have much else going for them. That said, they don’t have a bad matchup here.
Texas A&M is probably under seeded given they were the 2-seed in the SEC tourney and made it to the finals. But they do struggle against a team that shoots well from outside, and Penn State shoots it often and shoots it well (TOP 10 in 3PRate and 3P%). The Aggies go under every screen trying to create turnovers, but this lets opponents get a lot of looks from deep, with A&M allowing the 12th highest 3P rate nationally.
A&M needs to get offensive rebounds and get to the FT line to have success on offense, because they can’t really shoot. Penn State is a top 50 defensive rebounding team, despite being undersized, and they don’t foul, so there won’t be free points at the line for the Aggies.
Penn State pressed against Purdue, and nearly knocked them off in the Big 10 championship because of it. A&M could be in for a similar fate. They are in the bottom 40 nationally in steals allowed, and if PSU gets extra 3-point shots up against an Aggie team that hasn’t really faced an elite shooting team all year, I think they are in trouble once the shots start falling.