ORU +6.5

Excited to see Oral Roberts, who I think is maybe the best 12-seed that I can remember. They have won 17 straight games, and lost just 1 game since Thanksgiving. They are a top 25 offense, they can shoot from outside, which is huge against a Duke team that has an elite rim-protector in Derrick Lively. They do not turn it over, at all. They are #1 nationally in protecting the ball. They are comfortable playing in the half court. They have an elite backcourt in Max Abmas and Issac McBride. They have an elite rim protector and inside scorer in 7-5 Arkansas transfer Connor Vanover.

Duke has a solid 7 footer as well in Kyle Filipowski, and he is playing great right now, putting up over 20 points in 3 of the 4 games in the ACC tournament. Duke hasn’t played much of a schedule, and part of that is due to the ACC being so poor. They have one win over a top 30 KenPom team, and that came all the way back in November against Xavier.

Oral Roberts was a team I had circled before the draw. They are well coached, they have a superstar player who can take over in a tournament setting, and they believe they can win because they have done it before, with Abmas taking a less talented roster to the sweet 16 in 2021 and coming within 2 points of an elite 8 spot. I don’t love the draw, but I have to take into account that Duke’s recent success has come almost exclusively against bad teams. I think Oral Roberts is live to win this, so I have to take 6.5