These two teams have a ton of similarities. They are both top 15 teams nationally in terms of size, and they are both mediocre offensive teams that make hay on the defensive side of the bal. Both are bad FT shooting and 3-point shooting teams, but a huge difference there is that Illinois attempts a ton of 3s while Arkansas avoids them almost completely.

I like the matchup for Arkansas here for a couple of reasons. The first is, I am generally looking to fade Big 10 teams in this tournament. The other is that Illinois can’t hurt Arkansas where they are weakest. Their overall metrics don’t really say that, mostly because the SEC is the worst 3 point shooting conference in the country, by far, but it has been a struggle for them and for Musselman teams historically. With all that said, Illinois is 331st nationally in 3P%, so they aren’t equipped to take advantage of this flaw.

Arkansas doesn’t want to play offense in the half court, ever. They want to get out and run, and finish around the rim. Illinois is excellent at rim protection, but are much better there when they can set up. The problem is, Illinois struggles with turnovers, which is a nightmare against Arkansas.

The talent gap is also pretty real, with this Arkansas team having 2 lottery picks in Nick Smith, Jr. and Anthony Black, and potentially another 1st rounder in Ricky Council.