Philadelphia Eagles ML -120
I think I’m going to keep this one very simple this year. Philly ranks #1 in QB-pressure rate, #1 in Adjusted Sack Rate (their ability to convert that pressure into actual sacks is pretty impressive), and #1 in Pass-defense. If any team can slow down this Chiefs passing attack, it’s the Eagles, plain and simple. And to make it even likelier to do so, Mahomes has an ankle sprain he’s dealing with while we don’t even know which of his WR’s will be available for the game. Even if some/all suit up, chances of a reaggravation are fairly high I’d imagine and neither JuJu, nor Hardman, nor Toney are a safe bet to finish the game. Even Kelce had a mysterious back-issue last week, and while he didn’t seem to be affected by it much, a flare-up could come at any time for an aging superstar. Outside of the injury issues, I just don’t see the supporting cast as dynamic as in years past with Tyreek Hill out of the equation. Philly’s top passing-D should have some success at least, and expecting an above average offensive performance out of the Chiefs is not realistic. In the two games in the post-season, Chiefs have averaged 5.4 YPP (Yards per Play) against both Jacksonville and Cincinnati, well below their 6.6 YPP mark during the regular season. That came against two teams outside of top-10 in pass-defense. I just don’t see anything better than this in terms of offensive-efficiency against the Eagles, and I believe for the Chiefs to win, they have to play at or above their average offensive expectancy.
On the other side, you have a talented Philly offense as well, ranking top-3 in the league. They have better offensive playmakers than KC, just as stout O-line, but most importantly, they have a QB who is dynamite with his legs. Although the Chiefs rank top-5 in QB-pressure rate and 2nd overall in sacks (behind the Eagles) on the season, the threat of Hurts using his legs will mitigate this pass-rush somewhat. Last time KC faced a similar QB, was week 6 against Josh Allen and the Bills. Allen threw for over 300 yards, had 3 TD passes, and only got sacked once. Bills won 24-20 in Kansas City in a fairly close game. Well, I think Philly’s #1 ranked rushing attack (Bills were 11th on the year) is going to create even more problems for the Chiefs here than the Bills did in that game. Shutting down this Eagles offensive attack is going to be very difficult.
To me, Philly has enough advantages at most positions to have a strong overall advantage in this game. Hard to bet against Mahomes and Reid, but Philly is clearly the better team, and in a winner-take-all type of a game, I’ll always back a better team at these kinds of odds.
Good Luck