Under 46.5 SF/PHI

My model has this one at 24-22 Philly, so both the spread and the total are on point.  So though it looks like a 50/50 proposition on the total, I think the Under has a much stronger shot of hitting here. 

First of all, I believe this is truly the first road-test of Purdy.  Look at the games he’s started so far:

Home vs Tampa (Week 14) à 25^th ranked team overall and 15^th Pass D à QBR 93 with 8.8 PY/A

@ Seattle (Week 15) à 15^th overall and 17^th Pass D à QBR 65 with 8.3 PY/A

Home vs Washington (Week 16) à 17^th overall and 13^th Pass D à QBR 62 with 10.6 PY/A

@ Las Vegas (Week 17) à 24^th overall and 31^st Pass D à QBR 68 with 8.1 PY/A

Home vs Arizona (Week 18) à 29^th overall and 21^st Pass D à QBR 51 with 8.9 PY/A

Home vs Seattle (Wild Card) à 15^th overall and 17^th Pass D à QBR 89 with 11.1 PY/A

Home vs Dallas (Divisional Round) à 7^th overall and 3^rd Pass D à QBR 53 with 7.4 PY/A

So Purdy did face Seattle and Las Vegas on the road, but Seattle isn’t the same intimidating place to play at it used to be (partly because the team hasn’t been very good for a while) and Las Vegas road game was in week 17 with the Raiders in turmoil, eliminated from the playoffs, and Carr literally gone from the organization.  Plus Vegas itself does not strike me as a tough place to play at on the road.  So, he’s started in 5 home games, one road game in Las Vegas at the end of the season, and really just one semi-tough road game @ Seattle.  Now, he’s going to Philly, traveling all the way to the East Coast, and playing the earlier Conference Championship game.  Facing not just the Philly ferocious pass-rush (Ranked #1 in Pressure rate and #1 in Adjusted Sack Rate) but also the #1 overall Pass-D in the league.  Last week against Dallas’s 3^rd ranked pass-D, I’d argue Purdy had his worst game of the season averaging 7.4 Yards / Pass, his lowest output of the year there, as the offense averaged only 5.0 Yards Per Play (YPP), the lowest output with him as a starter so far.  That game was at home.  Sunday’s game will be in much tougher, and louder, environment.  Can we really expect him to play better than he did against Dallas?  I highly doubt it.  The gameplan for him will be to protect the football at all costs – which he’s done a great job of – and focus on getting the ball out quickly to avoid the Eagles’ pass-rush.  I think relying on San Fran’s defense and keeping the game close is the goal here in Purdy’s first ‘true’ road test.  Purdy might be asked to win the game after all, but it’ll be much easier to do so in the 4^th quarter against a more fatigued Philly defensive unit, as opposed to early on. 

This bring me to that San Fran defense, which ranks 2^nd overall, 5^th against the pass, and 2^nd against the run.  If any D can hold Hurts and Co. at bay it’s this unit, with their ferocious D-line and speed at linebacker positions.  Philly offense can be contained if the threat of Hurts moving the chains via his legs is minimized/eliminated and I don’t think there’s a better unit than San Fran to do so.  Turning him into a mostly pocket-passer is the goal here and I think San Fran will achieve that. 

I expect to see a tight, close game early on, with both teams relying on their run-games and short passing to try to move the chains.  While I was surprised to see a spread below a FG, with almost 75% of the bets on Philly, the line isn’t budging much.  I think there’s a lot of confidence in Purdy being able to hold his own and not make crucial mistakes in this one, albeit playing in a tough environment.  Thus I’m passing on the side and think the Under is absolutely the best play of the weekend. 

Good Luck