I should have bet this last night at a better price, but I hadn't finished the work. I won't bet something and throw it out there the night before unless I am damned certain. Anyhow, this says it's at a neutral site but it's not. Estero is a 20 minute drive from FGCU and clearly it's a tad more from Drexel. While there may be a few people from Philadelphia that spend Thanksgiving in Florida, it'll clearly be a FGCU crowd, especially at night. This game opened as Drexel -1 because that's what KenPom had it as. Not because of actual work. FGCU has already beaten USC an played San Diego (a better team than Drexel) tough, and in California. They've also played Tennessee, so their early stats are a bit skewed. However, Pat Chambers will have them playing far more defense (lean under) than Fly did, and it's already showing. They are also a superior (78%) FT shooting team and get to the line often. Drexel held UT Arlington to 38 points yesterday, but UTA really does suck, and the best team they've faced in Penn, so they haven't been tested and FGCU has. Drexel hasn't been creating turnovers and have been awful at the FT line (61%) and the FT discrepancy alone is usually enough for me to be a game especially when it could be close. FGCU has more experience. I would also venture to guess that the officials for this game are not from Pennsylvania. When all is said and done, FGCU is now the listed favorite and for very good reason.

11/22/2022 5:50 AM