Thursday, Sept. 22nd / 8:15pm ET / 5:15pm PT / #301-302 Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
2** Play on: PITTSBURGH STEELERS plus the points
*Optimum line: +4.5 or more points
Pittsburgh has DOMINATED this series as of late… They’re the league’s ULTIMATE Underdog… and Cleveland has been a HORRIFIC home favorite when it comes to division play. Obviously, that means the POINTS are the play in the first game of the Week Three schedule on Thursday night in Cleveland. Researching the recent ATS tendencies for this particular Day of the Week makes this query ALONE worthy of a wager.
In the first half of the season (GAME 9 or less), THURSDAY home favorites in same-DIVISION play (like the Browns) have gone a PERFECT 0-8 ATS in the last four seasons. The exact same situation occurred as recently as LAST week, when the KC Chiefs won (BUT did NOT cover the point spread) in their Thursday home game against the Los Angeles Chargers.
This Pittsburgh / Cleveland SERIES has gone a PERFECT 5-0 ATS for the STEELERS in the last five meetings. Even MORE significant is the fact that Pittsburgh has covered the spread in these games by a whopping ATS MARGIN of +12.8 points per game. If that Margin holds up, Pittsburgh will not only COVER… but they might just win the game OUTRIGHT by 6 or more points. So with Cleveland playing with some REVENGE… that takes us to our next query that looks at games with an extremely LOW Over / Under line, like this one (line is around 38.0 to 38.5).
1-9 ATS last 5 years: All GAME 15 or les home favorites with REVENGE (Browns vs Steelers), when the OU line is a LOW 39 or less points.
In last week’s close home loss to New England, the final score was Patriots 17 - Steelers 14. 9-0 ATS last 3 years: All NFL underdogs of > 1 pt off a SU home DOG loss in which they scored AND allowed 17 or less points (STEELERS), when the OU line is < 48 points.
Cleveland has started the season with directly OPPOSITE results: A road dog WIN in Week One (vs Carolina), and a home fav LOS in Week Two (vs NY Jets). 0-7 ATS since 2010: All GAME THREE home favorites off a SU fav loss in Week 1 and a SU dog win in Week 2 (Browns).
Sealing the deal is an individual look at each team’s recent ATS tendencies.
CLEVELAND has gone 5-17-1 ATS since 2003 as same-division FAVORITES… including a perfect 0-7-1 ATS in the last three years…
PITTSBURGH has gone 64-32-7 ATS as pure UNDERDOGS since the 2000 season (67% ATS). That includes 28-9-3 ATS (76%) as DIVISION underdogs… including 10-2-1 Ays since 2015 and 7-1 ATS in the last three years.