Sat, June 25th / 10:10pm ET / 7:10pm PT / #929-930 Detroit Tigers w/ Faedo @ Arizona Diamondbacks w/ Davies
3*** O/U Best Bet on: UNDER the TOTAL
*BOX (specify) both scheduled starting pitchers
I bet this one last night right after the result of Game One of this Interleague series. And I was fortunate to find an OU line of 9 runs ‘flat’. Here on gameday, you might need to shop around a little to find that line. Most sportsbooks have already dropped it down to 8.5. Either way, it’s still a Best Bet for our service. We saw what happened in last night’s Game One, and we anticipate more of the same in tonight’s Game Two. Detroit won the series opener last night by the score of 5 to 1. And even THAT score was deceiving. The Tigers ONLY managed 5 runs in the game because they hit an extremely rare Grand Slam home run in the 3rd inning. Take away that ‘dinger’, and the score would probably have been just 2 to 1. Let’s face it, Detroit’s offense in the 2022 season absolutely SUCKS. They are dead last in the entire Major Leagues with an average of only 2.9 runs per game on offense. There were only SIX at-bats for the Tigers all night long yesterday in which there was a runner in scoring position. With a year-to-date record of 65% UNDERS (23-43-4 O/U), all sharp OU bettors know what they are getting. And when they are facing right-handed pitchers, the Tigers have had a .586 team OPS on the year.. and those games have gone only 16-32-3 O/U. On there flip side, we’re betting on another crappy offense (and great UNDER team) in the Diamondbacks. In fact, Arizona has been Major League Baseball’s best HOME ‘Under’ team in the entire league this season, with their record of 11-24-2 O/U (8.1 combined runs per game). In last night’s opener of this series, they had only THREE total hits in the entire freakin’ game. The D’Backs have been one of the worst offenses in all of Baseball over the last two weeks (Team OPS of only .604). They have been held to FOUR runs or fewer in EACH of their last four games, and 7 of their last ten games. Tonight’s pitching matchup suits us just fine. Detroit is sending out 1st Round rookie draft pick Alex Faedo. He’s gone 3-6 O/U in his nine 2002 starts thus far. Even better, ALL FOUR of his ROAD starts have gone UNDER (0-4 O/U). Faedo has allowed 2 earned runs or LESS in SEVEN of his nine starts this year. His counterpart will be Zach Davies of the host Diamondbacks. Already one of the better UNDER pitchers on the season at 3-11 O/U and an ERA under 4.00. In his seven home starts, Davies has gone an almost perfect 1-6 O/U (only 7.6 combined runs per game). Not only that, but the month of June has easily been his best month of the season. In his four June starts, Davies has allowed only 7 earned runs in 27 innings pitched for an ERA of only 2.33. Not only that, but he’s now gone UNDER in five straight starts in a row (0-5 O/U last 5).
Sealing the deal for us, and elevating this play to BEST BET status is the ‘Man in Blue’. Scheduled to work tonight’s Game Two of this series will be ROBERTO ORTIZ. He’s been the Top UNDER Umpire in all of Major League Baseball over the last five seasons. And he’s picked up in 2022 right where he left off at. In this current season, Ortiz comes in with an overall record of 3-10 O/U (77% Unders) and an average of only 8.3 combined runs per game. The only two Umps who have had better Under results in 2002 are Marty Foster (0-5 O/U) and Andy Fletcher (1-11 O/U). In terms of recent play, we note that Ortiz is on current streaks of 1-4 O/U in his last five games (only 7.0 combined runs per game)… and 0-3 O/U in his last three (only 5.0 combined RPG). ORTIZ last two seasons: 14-36-3 O/U (72% Unders)… ORTIZ last three seasons: 26-52-4 OU (67% Unders)…