6/24/2022 - #961-962 - 7:05pm ET - 4:05pm PT HOUSTON ASTROS @ NEW YORK YANKEES
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
*Action Play (a play REGARDLESS of today’s scheduled pitchers)
Tonight’s play in Game Two of the YANKEES / ASTROS series is an Action Play. It’s a play on the OVER regardless of who starts on the mound for either team. It’s a play primarily focused on the year-to-date Totals Tendencies for the home plate Umpire… not to mention the hot recent individual TEAM trends. Obviously, the sharp OU bettor will be a little concerned when he / she sees who is scheduled to be pitching tonight. That would be Justin Verlander for the visiting Astros and Luis Severino for the host Yankees. And we certainly acknowledge that the two pitchers have gone a combined 9-16 O/U on the season. But if you ARE gonna be playing a Verlander and / or a Severino OVER the Total, we can at least be reassured that we’ll be playing it AFTER each pitcher has basically had their WORST start of the season. And that’s the case on Friday evening on Game Two. Verlander’s off a game in which he allowed 9 hits and 7 runs in less than 4 innings pitched against the Chicago White Sox. And Serverino’s off a start in which he lost to the Blue Jays by a big score of 10-9 (in with he allowed 5 runs in 5 innings and 2 home runs).
So with that said, we’ll look at each team’s recent progression on offense to fuel our play.
On the season: The ASTROS are averaging 4.48 runs per game, and 1.4 home runs per game. BUT in their last ten games: 6.46 runs per game on offense (almost 2 full runs per game HIGHER… 10.0 combined runs per game… and 2.0 game runs per game. On the season: The YANKEES are averaging 5.14 runs per game on offense, 8.2 combined runs per game, and 1.6 home runs per game. BUT in their last ten games: 5.5 runs per game on offense, 8.8 combined runs per game, and 2.0 home runs per game. AND in their last five games: 6.1 runs per game vs righties, 11.2 combined runs per game, and 2.4 home runs per game. Considering tonight’s OU line is just 7.5 runs, we should have no problem getting to 8 or more combined runs based on each team’s recent hitting tendencies.
As is always the case for us, the KEY to tonight’s game is the man who’s gonna be behind the dish. And we do NOT want to pass up another opportunity to play an OVER in this Ump’s game. Scheduled to work Game Two of this Yankees / Astros series will be TODD TICHENOR. And when it comes to a LOT of runs per game, NO ONE is any higher than Tichenor. His year-to-date average of 11.9 combined runs per game is #1 in the entire league (out of 73 full time Major League Baseball Umpires). No one is averaging more runs per game than Tichenor. So it’s not surprising that he comes in with a record of 7-1-1 O/U on the season in his nine games. That includes 4-0-1 in his American Large games, with an average of 12.8 combined runs per game. And since the beginning of May, Tichenor’s last five games have seen 14 combined runs… 9 combined runs.. 9 combined runs… 23 combined runs… and 17 combined runs. That’s an average of 14.4 runs per game!