1st 5 Inning
I like these Reds in this spot tonight. I'm taking the +0.5 for the 1st 5 Innings here. My long term clients know that I like Castillo and look for spots to back him. I like him here on Wednesday night. He's in very good form the last 5 starts: 2.67 .ERA, 1.04 WHIP, just 2 HR's allowed, just a .188 .OBA allowed and a solid 3/1 K/BB ratio. I also like the fact that over Castillo's career he has pitched well at his very lively home park. He is a ground ball pitcher who does have a tendency to induce DP's. On the flip side we have Tyler Anderson taking the ball for the LAD. He's been great for LAD but he is a big fly ball pitcher and that may be a problem tonight at the VERY hitter friendly Great American Ballpark (which will be playing very live tonight with great hitting conditions). I also like the fact that these Reds are most potent vs LH pitching. I aslo like that the current Reds have a combined .317 .avg against Anderson. On the flip side, current LAD are hitting just .189 vs Castillo with no HR's and just one extra base hit in 61 plate appearances. The bottom line for me here is that I really see a SP edge here with Castillo taking the ball at his HOME park & I expect him to limit these Dodgers. The Dodgers offense is in a bit of a drought the last week and a half (ranking bottom 10 in MLB in .OPS). I also look for this now healthy and improving Reds offense to get to Anderson eventually. I see good value on the Reds +0.5 for the 1st 5 Innings and that is how I bet this game.