Saturday, May 21st / 8:30pm ET / 5:30pm PT #561-562 / Game Three / Eastern Conference Finals
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics
3*** BEST BET on: UNDER the TOTAL
The Eastern Conference Finals between Boston and Miami makes the site change on Saturday night, as the series shifts to Bean Town. The OU line current stands at about 207.5 points. And we know that a LOT of bettors will be knee-jerking their bet tonight based on what happened in the first two games of this series. Game One (our 3* winner) ended up going OVER by +22.5 points. And in Thursday’s Game Two, the OVER ended up casing again… this time by +23 points. So obviously, a lot of the square action is gonna be chasing the OVER in tonight’s Game Three. We’re not buying any of it. In fact, we have enough OU ‘ammo’ in our database to actually justify a confident BEST BET on the other side (UNDER) this evening.
The most important situation in regards to today’s game is the fact that the series has started out 2-0 O/U in the first two games. And the database tells us to always Go LOW in the next game.
(1) Since 1994, All Playoff GAME THREES off back-to-back OVERS in Games 1 and 2 (Heat @ Celtics) have gone a very solid 29-61-3 O/U. That’s a very consistent 68% UNDER the Total percentage over a very long time period of 28 years. But we can do even better. Our results shoot all the way up to 84% UNDERS (3-16 O/U!) when (a) the home team FAVORED in these games (Boston)… and (b) the OU line in these Game Three’s is in the range of 181 to 214 points. So we’ll be riding that UNDER-whelming 3-16 O/U situation this evening.
How about the ‘3.3’ game SPECIFICALLY (Round 3 / Game 3). I’m glad you asked. The 3.3 game of the NBA Playoffs has gone an AMAZING 1-19 O/U (95% Unders!) when the home team is favored by < 8 pts (Celtics vs Heat), and the OU line is in the range of 181 to 221 points. Those two queries alone are worthy of a bet tonight. But here’s a couple more database situations that compel us to bump this one up to BEST BET status.
(3) 1-9 O/U since 2014: All Playoff favorites in ANY Game in ROUNDS 2, 3, or 4 off back-to-back Playoff OVERS when the OU line in those last two games was 208 or less points (Celtics vs Heat), when the OU line is once again at 209 or less points.
(4) 1-9 O/U since 1995: All Playoff road teams in ROUNDS 2 or 3 off a SUATS Playoff home fav LOSS and a SUATS Playoff home fav WIN in their last two games (Miami), when the OU line is in the range of 187 to 220 points.
(5) 1-8 O/U since 2004: All Playoff non-division home home favorites off a Playoff DOG win of 20 or more points (Celtics won 127-102 on Thursday).
(6) #1 SEED Playoff underdogs of +5 or more points (Heat) hav gone 1-8 O/U in the last five years…
(7) #2 SEED Playoff home favorites in ROUNDS 1, 2, or 3 (Celtics) have gone 1-9 O/U in the last 5 years, when the OU line is 210 or less points.
And to top it all off, this has been a great Day of the Week for UNDERS in mid-to-low lined Playoff games as of late. (8) In the last five years, all SATURDAY Playoff games with an OU line of LESS Than (<) 215 points (Heat @ Celtics) have gone an almost-perfect 1-15 O/U. These games have gone 0-11 O/U in ROUNDS 2, 3, or 4… with an average OU MARGON of -11.2 points per game.