Tuesday, May 17th / Game One / Eastern Conference Finals 8:30pm ET / 5:30pm PT / #535-536
BOSTON CELTICS @ MIAMI HEAT
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
*Optimum OU line: 204.0 or less points
On Tuesday Night, the NBA’s next round of the Playoffs commences play down here in hot South Florida. At 8:30pm ET, it’s the #1 Seed MIAMI HEAT hosting the #2 Seed BOSTON CELTICS in Round 3 / Game 1… with the OU line right around 204.0 points. With a lot of the squares ‘Going LOW’ based on each team’s OU records in Round Two, we have no problem switching gears and going the other way. These two teams have faced each other a LOT in the NBA post-season, and most of the numbers point to a higher-than-anticipated final score. For instance, these two teams also faced each other just two short years ago in the 2020 Eastern Conference Finals. A year in which EVERY game was played in Orlando in ‘The Bubble’. Those games in 2020 ended up going 5-1 O/U, with an average of 224.8 combined points per game. In fact, these two teams have gone 18-7 O/U versus each other in ALL post-season games dating all the way back to 1990. That includes an almost-perfect 8-1 O/U when playing IN Miami… with an average OU margin of more than DOUBLE DIGITS (+ 11.5 ppg). So that’s our starting point for Tuesday’s Game One.
When researching this game SPECIFICALLY (RD 3 / GM 1), our database reveals that:
Favorites of > 1 point in the NBA Playoff ‘3.1’ game (HEAT vs CELTICS) have gone 12-2 O/U since 2010… 8-1 O/U since 2012… and a perfect 4-0 O/U since 2016 when the OU line falls in the range of 179 to 217 points.
Next up, we pull back and check out some GAME 1 Over / Under tendencies in ANY round. The fact that Boston is starting this new series with only ONE full day of rest is actually GREAT news for OVER bettors.
That's because, All NBA Playoff GAME ONE teams (in any round) have gone an amazing 18-1 O/U when playing with only ONE day of rest (BOSTON).
And let’s not forget that Boston’s series against Milwaukee went a full SEVEN games, with the Celtics winning Sunday’s final by the score of 109 to 91.
ANY Playoff team who scored 105 or more points in a GAME SEVEN win (BOSTON) have gone 22-2 O/U in their next Playoff game! That includes a perfect 7-0 O/U in the last six seasons… with an average of 216.1 combined ppg score.
Yes, we’re well aware that Miami shut down the Hawks on defense BIG-TIME in their 2nd round series. They closed it out by holding Atlanta to just 85 and 90 points in the final two games of that series. With that said however, NBA Playoff non-division home favorites who ALLOWED 90 < pts in EACH of their last two Playoff games (MIAMI) have gone a perfect 8-0 O/U since 2012 when the OU line is < 209 points.
Miami is the #1 seed team in the East while Boston is the #2 seed team.
7-1 OU since 2016: All Playoff #1 SEED ‘short’ home favorites of -4 < pts (HEAT) when the OU line is 225 or less points.
7-1 O/U since 2014: All Playoff #1 SEED vs #2 SEED games (Heat vs CELTICS), when the OU line is 213 or less points.
We’ll close out the database with a query combining Day of the Week, the short pointspread, the Game #, and the (relatively low) Over / Under line.
11-1 O/U since 2012: All NBA Playoff TUESDAY home favorites of -6 < pts in GAMES 1, 2, or 3 (MIAMI vs BOSTON), when the OU line is less than (<) 208 points.