UPDATE: No play now that Mavericks Guard Luka Doncic has been ruled out.
Early season NBA - there is always this risk, and we played the scenario without this information. Considering the spot here, the Mavericks still need the win anyway and have no excuses with the Grizzlies shorthanded also without Ja Morant.
I still think Memphis is overrated here - so I would only pay Mavericks +1 at this point - and would not play back on the Grizzlies arbitrarily. If, however, the the Mavericks get out to an early lead - which I think is likely - I will look to mitigate my risk by playing live on the Grizzlies.
Love fading fat & happy Memphis here in a contest vs. a hungry contender fresh of an upset loss.
While Memphis is fat and happy after their record setting win vs. the SGA-less OKC Thunder two nights ago, the Dallas Mavericks are in desperate need of a bounce back win after losing last night due largely to an off game for Luka.
Since 2006 teams that win by 30+ and are underdogs in the next game are only 46% ATS since 2005, (98-111).
That includes only 43% ATS win-rate for teams like the Grizzlies in this spot, when they are coming of a 30+ win and are dogs of 5+ underdogs in the next game (36-46).
Similar trends (since 2005):
Teams that win by 40+ are underdogs in the next game are only 16-24 ATS, also 40% ATS.
Teams that win by 50+ overall are only 40% ATS (6-9) since 2005.
These trends make sense - overall a long, mostly non-consequential NBA season, teams of huge blowouts do not match their opponents intensity in the following contest.
After struggling in the early part of his career on back-to-backs, Luka thrive in this spot last year, arguably having his best games on 0 days rest with 28.4 PPG, 61% True Shooting in 13 games last year of 0 rest -- his best marks for any of his rest-splits.
Historically, playing at home on on the second night of back-to-back mitigates the affect of fatigue.