I'm playing MILWAUKEE on the run-line (+1.5 runs). Houser was originally supposed to start yesterday. However, the Brewers decided to give him an extra day off and have him pitch today instead. That works in his favor two ways. For starters, he gets to pitch against the Phillies instead of the Dodgers. He's also been much better on the road, than he has been at home. (If not for the extra day off, he would have pitched at home.) In three home starts, he's got a 4.80 ERA and has issued three home runs. In two road starts, however, he's got a 1.86 ERA and has yet to surrender a home run. He catches the Phillies off a demoralizing nationally televised loss on Sunday night. Note that it marked the fourth straight Philadelphia game which was decided by a single run. While the Brewers got blown out yesterday, the first two games of their series vs. the Dodgers were also decided by a single run. Velasquez goes for the Phillies and he's been inconsistent for years. He's got a 6.57 ERA and 1.95 WHIP in five appearances (2 starts) this season. In his two starts, both of which were "close," he's given up four home runs, two in each game, despite pitching a total of just 8 1/3 combined innings. While I expect a Brewer victory, with Houser's last start also resulting in a 1-run game, I'll lay the extra juice and grab the +1.5 insurance runs.