PROPS!

Balt/Buf

Buf Josh Allen OVER 39.5 rush yards 2 stars

Balt Marquise Brown UNDER 4.5 receptions UNDER 4.5-140

GB -.5 with Balt +8

PROP: 2 stars,   Josh Allen OVER 39.5 rush yards (AVG 26, but 11/52, 9/92 playoffs last 2 years)

PROP   2 stars M. Brown  UNDER 4.5 catches, - 140

 

LA (3)/GB(6.5) -6.5

LEAN GOFF UNDER 214 pass yards

Power Ratings only makes this Rams-5 (with 1.5 HFA):  Many Stats actually say Rams are better:

YPP:   Rams +.9 GB +.8

SOS:   Rams 11^th toughest, GB 26^th

Rams:  Unlucky YTD in T/os:  -3, GB 7

Rams are the only remaining team with a minus T/o Margin

Factors Favoring GB:

Weather:  28 degrees in Green Bay

Short Turnaround: Rams only 6 days to prepare

Rams Injuries: To key Players

Is Goff 90%?  The fact they were starting Wolford is troubling….

Aaron Donald Rib Health?  Probably…..THE most valuable non QB in league worth 1.5 points……..missed 2h vs. Sea (did not practice Tuesday)

          McVay says “Donald will be ready to play”

Cooper Kupp Knee Bursitis Injury…….Questionable

          Missed practice, McVay says “there is hope” he can play

 

Balt(6)/BUF(6) -2.5

Balt: Might be the best team in the NFL right now:

Stopped Titans run game Derek Henry:  11 of 18 carries hit at or before line of scrimmage

          Only 18/40 2.2, HAD gained OVER 55 yards EVERY game (all 3.0 +)

Balt:  D playing best ball:  Have held 6 of last 7 opponents under 20 points  Team had Covid issues/injury issues mid year…….lost 3 straight

@NE in rain (17-23) Ten (24-30 OT) Wed gm at Pit (14-19) No Jackson

Since then Balt is 6-0 SU/6-0 ATS DESPITE playing 3 straight weeks in that streak on short weeks……

However: IS this just Balt being a bully?  They WERE favored by 3 or more in all 6 games………NOW they are the dog……

Short week:  Not as big an issue for Balt?   4-0 SU/ 3-0-1 ATS on short weeks this year  However, Buf HAD been playing best ball in NFL:

Now 10-1 last 11, only 2 close wins (3 point win NE, 3 point win vs. Indy), but have to be worried about Buf D (Indy moved ball very well 500 yards)  BAD SPOT BALT:  3^rd straight road game:  85-104-2 45% ATS

IN JAN even worse:  13-20 ATS 39%

Balt: Fewest Miles traveled all year (6300)

PROP: 2 stars,   Josh Allen OVER 39.5 rush yards (AVG 26, but 11/52, 9/92 playoffs last 2 years)

PROP   2 stars M. Brown  UNDER 4.5 catches, - 140

Clev(.5) KC(7) -10, 56.5

Lean Clev

Big Question:  Is KC truly a team that can now “throw the switch” and be a better team?  Kc clearly has been underachieving…….

0-7-1 ATS

Won 7 straight games games, Won NONE of them by more than 6

Lines still inflated:   Power ratings make the game 8.5……

 

Clev:  Off their SUPERBOWL WIN, how much will they have left in the tank?  They can lose this game by 30 and it has been a great season, and they will still have a big level of satisfaction……..

5+ point dogs in playoffs that win SU, then 5+ point dog in next gm, 9-10 ATS…… so nothing conclusive there….

I only upgraded Clev .5, I felt the Pit loss was much more about Pit collapsing/giving away gm, than Clev playing well

 

Pit:  553, Clev 390

1d:  Pit 34 Clev 20

YPP:   Pit 6.6, Clev 6

T/o:  Pit 5, Clev 0

 

Tb(5) NOR(6.5) -3, 52

LIKE SAINTS -3

Fundamental Matchup edge to Norl?

Week 1:  Tb 23 NORL 34

          Brady’s 1^st game, 23/36 239, 2TD, 2 INT sacked 3x, QBR 41

                   Team:  26/86 3.3 rushing

          Brees:        18/30 160 5.3, 2 TD/O INT, sacked 1x, QBR 74

                   Team:  34/82 rushing…..2.4

Stats were pretty equal:

          1d:  TB  23, Norl 18

          Yds: TB 310 Norl 271

          YPP:  TB 4.8, 4.1

          T/o:  TB 3, No 0

2^nd game:  Week 10 Total CRUSHING    Nor 38 TBAY 3

          Brady: 22/38 209 5.5 0 Td/3 Int sacked 3x, QBR 6

                   Team: 5 carries/8 yards……..

          Brees: 26/32 222 6.9 4Td/0 int sacked 1, QBR 99

                   Team:  37 carries/138 yards……

TB:4 of last 5 on ROAD (@atl @4, @Det W 40, Atl w 17, @ Wash win 8)

Nor:  4 last 5 Home (L kc by 3, W min 19, W @Car26, W Chic 11)

31-0 Saints at half DESPITE:

Tampa Bay started with ball

Tampa Bay got a Saints fumble at the 2 yard line in the 1^st quarter

Easily could have been 38-0

          Saints receivers were open all night

          Tbay had no open receivers…..went 3 and out 1^st 4 series…….

 

Injuries: Tb RB Ronald Jones (Quad) questionable, missed last week

          Fournette had a solid gm last week, but not the same player

          YTD: Jones 978 51., Fournette 367 3.8

         

Saints D:  Shut down Bears playmakers who had been surging:

WR Alan Robinson:  55 yards(9.2), last 6 games 83 and every gm over 92.

RB David Montgomery 12/31 2.6, last 6 games 100/gm 5.1 carry

Misleading final:  Saints missed by 6 inches TD to go up 28-3 with 3 min left……