PROPS:
2 stars: Balt/Ten shortest TD UN 1.5 -170
LEAN: Balt Andrews OVER 59 Reception Yards
LEAN: Ten Henry UNDER 120.5 Rush Yards
Balt/Ten -3-120, 54.5
LEAN UNDER 54.5
When you bet
an under, you love to see more rushes, fewer passes, as the clock keeps running…….
Only 3 teams
in the NFL run more than they pass, and these are 2 of the 3!!
Balt:
No1 in Rush usage, they run the ball 56% of time
Ten: No 3 in Rush usage, they run
50.5%
Last 2 games
played, teams have averaged only 47 points per game
54 this year (OT), and 40 in playoffs
last year
Balt:
Peaking or a bully? Maybe a bit of both?
Wins Dal
34-17, Clev 47-42, Jax 40-14, NYG 27-13, Win 38-3 5-0 SU/ATS
Ten D
Fatigued! 5 of 7 on road, last 2 on road
Titans have
given up 38 and 40 last 2 weeks (Hou, @
GB)
Titans DID
win earlier in yr, and not a fluke, Ten 30 Balt 24 OT
Titans won
stats , 423 vs. 306 YPP: 6.2 vs. 4.9
Derek
Henry: 378 carries, 35 last gm, (only
other gm in 30s, week1 31)
Hnery only 303 carries regular season last yr!) 83in playoffs…….
Chic/NORL-11 Lean Bears
Initially I leaned NORL -9.5, due to the spot being good for Saints. But at 10.5 or higher I lean Bears
Michael Thomas has missed 2/3 of teams snaps this
year: 7 gms only
Team
made decision to sit him last 3 games to get him healthy
Offense
should be much better with him healthier……
Saints recent playoff failures, have had their
share of bad luck
2019: Lost to Vikings in OT by 6
2018: Lost to Rams OT, horrible non PI call end of
game
2017: Lost
to Min on road, Minneapolis Miracle to Diggs
Chic:
Failed in biggest gm of year, lost 35-16 at home vs a comparable team……
Bears were
just +4 vs. GB
NOW they are
+11 vs. N Orl
HFA is worth
VERY little this year……….
GB is
Slightly BETTER than N Orl, yet Bears facing a slightly LESSER team are getting
7 more points!!
Clev/PIT -6
LIKE PIT
Pit: Been a team without a real bye that week
after week, has faced games where THEY are at an energy disadvantage…….
THIS is the 1st game PIT
has the edge
Big Ben got to rest last week……….
Mayfield:
Does not handle unusual/stressful situations well
NOW: CLEV has not practiced all week!!
Now: Head Coach Stefanski OUT
Other Coaches OUT including OLINE and
WR coach
Special Teams coach Mike Preifer will
take over
Key Lineman OUT: Pro Bowl R Guard Bitonio (85)
Key D LINEMAN OUT: Olivier Vernon OUT Achilles, no2 sacker(PFF74)
Had 8 sacks last 8 games!
9 for year, Garrett 12, no 3
guy 4.5
AND Clev has a starting Safetey out,
Harrison Covid (PFF 75)
Clev:
OVERrated in general: 11-5, but
was OUTSCORED for year
By 11 points………1 week ago Revenge for
Pittsburgh………also favors Pit