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Pro Pick From
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(At current odds)

2021-01-11T01:15:00.000Z 2021-01-11T01:15:00.000Z - NFL

151 Cleveland Browns
vs.
152 Pittsburgh Steelers

Date

Sport/Type

Pick

Score

Odds

Size

W/L

$

01/10/2021

NFL Sides

Steelers

37-48

-6

3

L

-330

Analysis

PROPS:

2 stars:  Balt/Ten shortest TD UN 1.5 -170

LEAN:  Balt Andrews OVER 59 Reception Yards

LEAN:  Ten Henry UNDER 120.5 Rush Yards




Balt/Ten -3-120, 54.5

LEAN UNDER 54.5

When you bet an under, you love to see more rushes, fewer passes, as the clock keeps running…….

Only 3 teams in the NFL run more than they pass, and these are 2 of the 3!!

          Balt:  No1 in Rush usage, they run the ball 56% of time

          Ten: No 3 in Rush usage, they run 50.5%

Last 2 games played, teams have averaged only 47 points per game

          54 this year (OT), and 40 in playoffs last year

 

Balt: Peaking or a bully?  Maybe a bit of both?

Wins Dal 34-17, Clev 47-42, Jax 40-14, NYG 27-13, Win 38-3 5-0 SU/ATS

Ten D Fatigued!  5 of 7 on road, last 2 on road

Titans have given up 38 and 40 last  2 weeks (Hou, @ GB)

Titans DID win earlier in yr, and not a fluke, Ten 30 Balt 24 OT

Titans won stats , 423 vs. 306 YPP:  6.2 vs. 4.9

Derek Henry:  378 carries, 35 last gm, (only other gm in 30s, week1 31)
Hnery only 303 carries regular season last yr!) 83in playoffs…….

 

 

Chic/NORL-11 Lean Bears

 Initially I leaned NORL -9.5, due to the spot being good for Saints.  But at 10.5 or higher I lean Bears


Michael Thomas has missed 2/3 of teams snaps this year: 7 gms only

          Team made decision to sit him last 3 games to get him healthy      

          Offense should be much better with him healthier……

Saints recent playoff failures, have had their share of bad luck

2019:  Lost to Vikings in OT by 6

2018:  Lost to Rams OT, horrible non PI call end of game

2017: Lost to Min on road, Minneapolis Miracle to Diggs

 

Chic:  Failed in biggest gm of year, lost 35-16 at home vs a comparable team……

 

Bears were just +4 vs. GB

NOW they are +11 vs. N Orl

 

HFA is worth VERY little this year……….

GB is Slightly BETTER than N Orl, yet Bears facing a slightly LESSER team are getting 7 more points!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Clev/PIT -6

 

LIKE PIT

Pit:  Been a team without a real bye that week after week, has faced games where THEY are at an energy disadvantage…….

          THIS is the 1st game PIT has the edge

          Big Ben got to rest last week……….

Mayfield:  Does not handle unusual/stressful situations well

NOW:  CLEV has not practiced all week!!

Now:  Head Coach Stefanski OUT

          Other Coaches OUT including OLINE and WR coach

          Special Teams coach Mike Preifer will take over

          Key Lineman OUT:  Pro Bowl R Guard Bitonio (85)

          Key D LINEMAN OUT:  Olivier Vernon OUT Achilles, no2 sacker(PFF74)

          Had 8 sacks last 8 games!

                   9 for year, Garrett 12, no 3 guy 4.5

          AND Clev has a starting Safetey out, Harrison Covid (PFF 75)

Clev:  OVERrated in general:  11-5, but was OUTSCORED for year

          By 11 points………1 week ago Revenge for Pittsburgh………also favors Pit

 

 

 

Pick Creation Time:
01/09/2021 6:10 PM
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