Sunday, Oct. 18th / 1:0pm ET / 10:00am PT / #259-360WASHINGTON Football TEAM @ NEW YORK GIANTS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
Our search for OVER the TOTAL value in Week Six takes us to a couple of unlikely games. Both of which have relatively LOW OU lines. The second game is the NFC EAST DIVISION battle between Washington and the NY Giants. Our target line in this one is 43 or LESS points. These two defenses are allowing a combined 53.0 ppg on the year. And when broken up by SITE (NY at home / Wash on the road), the numbers improve to a whopping 63.0 combined ppg! We also know that the recent combo of NYG as a division home fav and WASH as a division road dog has been 15-3 O/U in the last 4 seasons.... The #1 database highlight of this game has to do with each team’s poor W/L record (Wash: 1-4 SU / NYG: 0-5 SU). 10-1 O/U last 6 years: All GAME FOUR > home favs of < 9 pts when BOTH teams have a current W/L percentage of < .250 (NYG + WASH).... A slight variation of that situation results in another OVER-whelming pattern. 17-4-1 O/U s’ 1998: All GAME 5 or greater WINLESS home favorites (GIANTS), when the OU line is in the range of > 37 and < 54 points.... I recently found my old OU hand-written workbook from 10+ years ago that I thought I lost. And OVER situation #1 from that workbook is in play for THIS game, thanks to a hot recent stretch of high-scoring results. 17-2 O/U last 4 years (89% Overs): All GAME 11 or less home teams who won six or LESS games the previous season (GIANTS), when playing off back-to-back road LOSSES.... In last week’s game at ‘Big D’, the Giants lost a close but high-scoring game (37 to 34). 14-1 O/U s’ 1994: All home favorites of 9 < pts off a SU division loss in which they scored AND allowed 34 or more points (GIANTS).... On the flip side, Washington has now lost four games in a row by big-ass margins. 9-1 O/U s’ 1996: All ‘short’ road DOGS of < 5 pts (WASH is +3) off 3 or more DOUBLE-DIGIT losses in a row, when the OU line is 39 > points.... Sealing the deal for us is a look at NFL East division games when the OU line is LOW, like this one. 10-1 O/U last 3 seasons: All NFC EAST same-DIVISION games when the OU line is LESS than (<) 45 points (WASH @ GIANTS). These games have averaged 55.1 combined PPG!