Sunday, Oct. 11th / CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS… 3*** BEST BET on: OVER the TOTAL
1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT / #451-452…
*Please note: This is a 3*** Best Bet, but ONLY if your OU line is at 53.5 or less points. If you can only find a line at 54 or more points, then this play drops down one level to a normal 2** Play…
After being good to us last week (we hit the Car/Arz OVER by half a point), the PANTHERS move into the Top Spot of our OU Best Bets for Week Five. It certainly looks like their division game against the FALCONS has the best SHOOTOUT potential of the week. A series that has seen the OVER go 3-1 in the last four played in Atlanta, with an avg of 58.0 combined ppg. Despite Monday’s outcome (Atlanta lost 30-16 to Green Bay), let’s not forget that FALCON games have already averaged 61.0 combined PPG thus far this season. They are ranked 2nd LAST in team defense (448 ypg allowed) AND in scoring defense (34.5 ppg allowed).
If you can, SHOP for the best line. For me, that line is 53.5 or less points. That way, just in case this game falls exactly on one of the ‘key; numbers of 54 or 55 points, we still cash a winner. Yes, we’re pretty confident we will actually see 60 or more combined points. But in these days of extremely high OU lines, its more important than ever to (a) get the best VALUE out of your line shopping. Look at all the popular scores that could have this one finishing at 54 or 55 points: 31-24… 30-24… 31-23… 38-17… 37-17… 34-20… 34-21… and 33-21…
Our first database query looks at the aftermath of the Monday game that Atlanta just played.
8-0 O/U L3Y: All NFL home favorites of -3 to -10 pts off a MONDAY conference road game (ATL). Avg margin: +8.0 ppg…
The fact that Atlanta is still WINLESS on the season also plays a big part in our call on the OVER.
(1) 8-1-1 O/U since 1981: All GAME 5 winless home favorites (ATL), with an OU line of > 42 pts.
(2) 15-3 O/U since 2016: All winless home favs of < 6 pts in ANY game (ATL), when the OU line is 42 > pts…
In last week’s home game versus the Cardinals, Carolina didn’t even need the points as they won by DOUBLE DIGITS. 9-1 O/U since 2014: All NFC underdogs of < 7 pts off a SU DOUBLE DIGIT home win as a DOG of +3 > pts (PANTHERS)…
The Panthers won last week’s game against the Cardinals by the score of 31 to 21.
9-1 O/U Last 3 years: All GAME 11 or less teams off a home DOG win in which they (a) SCORED 30 or more points (PANTHERS), and (b) ALLOWED greater than 10 points…
These days, the NFC SOUTH is one of the only divisions in the league that we would consider betting the OVER in when playing against each other.
9-1 O/U last 2 years / already 2-0 O/U THIS season: All NFC SOUTH Division games in the first HALF of the year (Game 9 <), when the HOST is favored by < 14 pts (FALCONS vs PANTHERS)…
At last look, there are SEVEN games this week with HIGH OU lines of 51 or more points. The best OVER situation in these high-lined games as of late? 14-2 O/U last 3 years: All NFL games with a HIGH OU line of 53 or more pts, when the home team is FAVORED by 5 or less points (ATL is currently -3)…
Each team’s BEST trends for an ‘OVER’ are IN PLAY for this game. CAROLINA: 10-1 O/U L2Y as conference UNDERDOGS... ATLANTA: 7-0 O/U L3Y as conference FAVS of < 7 pts, with OU line > 46 pts!
When doing the research for our weekly newsletter (Totals Tipsheet), we uncovered the following when it comes to the Sunday EARLY kickoff games. So far in this Crazy Covid season, all NFL Sunday EARLY START games (1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT), the OVER has gone an insane 29-6 O/U. That includes 14-2 O/U in the last two Sundays (88% Overs)!