1-star (641) Butler +1 over GEORGETOWN. 9:00pm ET.
Since Georgetown lost 4 guys in their 11-man rotation in late
December, the Hoyas are just 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS. That included the
transfer of would-be star point guard James Akinjo and off-court
allegations that led to the loss of three more players (Josh
LeBlanc, Myron Gardner and Galen Alexander). Meanwhile, we're catching
Butler off a "season-saving" win vs Marquette. Butler has the much better defense (No. 22 vs No. 108).
Lean (612) CLEMSON -2 over Syracuse. 7:00pm ET.
Generally speaking, I believe we're selling Syracuse "high" after
the Orange have won 5 straight games (all against teams outside KenPom's
Top 50). Note 3 of those wins have been "coin flips" and could've went
the other way. On the other side, Clemson has
the better defense (No. 50 vs No. 116) and have played the tougher
schedule (No. 32 vs No. 63). Also note that Clemson has produced a 1.03
PPP on 151 possessions against zone defense this season. That number ranks
in the 81st-percentile nationally.
Super Bowl Prop: 2-star Patrick Mahomes OVER 28.5 Rush Yards. Good up to 33 yards.
Super Bowl Prop: 1-star San Francisco +0.5 (-155) in first quarter.
The half-point is worth 70 cents in the first quarter (remember we
win if it's tied). On top of that, San Francisco was No. 4 in the NFL in
first quarter scoring margin (+2.6 ppg) while Kansas City has been a
slow starter all season (-0.8 ppg, No. 19).