Why is Iowa St laying 7 here? Quite simply, the analytics guys love them. The Cyclones are No. 16 in yards per play differential (+1.7) while Texas is No. 81 (-0.1). However, Texas is off a misleading last second win vs Kansas St last week. The Horns had 24-17 first down and 477-304 yard edges but did allow a 98-yard kick return TD. Obviously, we have the Tom Herman as an underdog trends with him being 14-4 ATS as a head coach. Meanwhile, Iowa St is off emotional near win at Oklahoma where they come up just short.The Cyclones have lost 4 games by a combined 11 points this year. Note that while Matt Campbell is great in the Big 12 (69% ATS), he’s not been good vs Texas (0-3 ATS -6.7 ppg) and he’s only managed 23 combined points on offense. Finally, Iowa St has met Texas 15 times since 1980 and the Cyclones have never been favored over the Longhorns (avg line +12.2). Is this an historically great Iowa St team? Maybe, maybe not. Is this a historically poor Texas team? No. So why do we have a historic line here again?

11/16/2019 7:24 AM