MLB Pick #1: 919 Houston Astros @ 920 New York Yankees
(Starting Pitchers: Z. Greinke vs. M. Tanaka)
Rating: 5 Units - ***Top Play***
Pick: Over 5 Runs F5 (First 5 IP's)
Odds: +111 / 2.11 on Pinnacle OR +100 / 2.00 on Bookmaker

We are 14-4 in the playoffs so far and one of the losses was the Over in HOU/NYY G1 with the exact same pitchers matchup that we have today: Greinke vs. Tanaka.

First of all, let’s check the weather: “A strong west wind will blow out to center tonight in NYY at 15-20 mph with higher gusts.”

This is good news for both teams hitters that saw some high balls fell very short of being HR’s in G3, with this wind, they would surely be HR’s.

Looking at G1 matchup:

The Yankees got to Greinke as expected… After the beatdown @TB, Greinke lost the confidence on his Change-Up and basically threw 50/50 between fastballs & sliders. The problem? Unlike Verlander and Cole, Greinke’s fastball speed sits @90.0 mph… I expect the Yankees to get some runs off him.

The reason I lost the Over in that game was the flawless job made by Tanaka: 6 scoreless innings!

However, there are some signs that make me think he just won’t be able to duplicate such great outing:

He allowed 6 Hard Hits balls w/o any damage, and had just eight swinging strikes for the overall line of 4 K’s. His Slider was on point (40% usage) but the Astros were the #1 ranked team vs. Sliders in this 2H of season.

I expect HOU to figure out Tanaka today and therefore, both pitchers will be in trouble IMO.

PS: I sent Over 5 at plus money because this has been our strategy this season: going for the plus money when given the chance. The price got a bit better now, so of course Over 4.5 is fine as well as long as it is at -110 odds or better.