Sunday / 9-15 / 4:25pm ET / 1:25pm PT / #283-284…
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS…
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL (Optimum OU line: LESS than (<) 53 points)…
Both of these high-flying NFL powerhouses came out smokin’ on offense in Week One, with the Rams scoring 30 points on the road in a tough ‘West to East’ game against a very good Carolina defense… and the Saints putting up 30 points after getting shut in the first quarter in their Monday come-from-behind win over the Texans. All of our database models and simulations point BOTH teams gotten got the magical point total of 27 points for the OVER to hit. And rule #1 for our service in terms off an ‘Over’ BEST BET is this: We must be able to trust that not one… but BOTH offenses will be able to put up the required amount of points. One can easily make a case that the Saints were already probably looking ahead to this very big REVENGE game when they stumbled of the gate in the first half of their Monday game. It was the Rams who took them down in the NFC Championship game last January in The Big Easy. So they have had this one ‘circled’ all summer long. We already know that last year’s regular season game between these two teams tallied a whopping 80 points last November. In that one, the OU line was a high 57 points… and the Over STILL cashed by +23 points (the score was 35-17 at the HALF!)….
So when we look at the highest-scoring HOME teams from last season, who would be your guess for #1? Not Pittsburgh (30.0 ppg)… Not New Orleans (31.6)… Not the mighty KC Chiefs (32.1)… and not New England either (33.8). The highest scoring home teams was the RAMS. They averaged 36.3 points on offense at home… and even ALLOWED a lot (27.4). So the average Ram home game had an amazing 63.7 combined points per game. On the flip side, sharp OU bettors already know that the Kansas City Chiefs were the highest-scoring ROAD team. But right behind them at #2 was the SAINTS (28.9 ppg on the road last season). If we wanted to, we could probably ‘cut and paste’ many individual team OU trends from other websites to strengthen our call. But we won’t. The two signature OVER trends from each team that I dug out of the database specifically look at the first month of the season. The SAINTS have gone 11-1 O/U as UNDERDOGS in Games 1 thru 4. And the RAMS have gone a perfect 7-0 O/U in there last four years in Games 1 thru 4 versus any NON-West Division opponent…
Next up, we start our database querying. The first query looks at games like this in which both teams scored 30 or more on offense in their last game. And this is a good sign for OVER bettors: 16-3-1 O/U last three years: All NFL Week 9 or less games in which BOTH teams scored 30+ points in their last game (SAINTS @ RAMS). In NON-division play, our results shoot all the way up to 12-1-1 O/U 92% Overs)…
Both of these teams came our as ‘Victors’ in their very first game of the season. 6-0 O/U last 2 years: All NFL games in which BOOTH teams are undefeated in the year (SAINTS @ RAMS) in GAME TWO or greater… when the OU line is 44 or more points…
So both teams won in Week One… and both were involved in some high-scoring antics on offense and defense. LA won 30 to 27, and NORL won 30 to 28. So that sets up our next database query: 10–1 O/U since 2013: All NFL Games in which BOTH teams have a winning percentage of > .250… and BOTH teams are off a game in which they scored AND allowed 27 or more points (SAINTS and RAMS). In the last two seasons, these game have average an impressive 63.3 points per game…
OVER bettors love it when these two different divisions hook-up against each other. The OVER has hit at a very high percentage. In fact, NFC WEST DIVISION teams (RAMS) have gone 22-6-1 O/U in the last five years in GAME 2 or greater versus any NFC SOUTH DIVISION opponent (SAINTS). When the NFL WEST team is off a win (like the RAMS), the results improve to 8-1 O/U…
We acknowledge that it’s short week for the Saints. But the database tells us that: Non-Division underdogs of 2 > points off a MONDAY home game (SAINTS) have gone 32-9-1 O/U since 2011. This includes a perfect 7-0 O/U in the last 4 years in GAME 5 our less when the OU line is > 43 points…
The West Coast Rams opened the season with a tough cross-country trek all the way to Charlotte. We projected them to struggle on offense early in the game (we were on the UNDER) and they did (0 points in 1st quarter / only 13 at the half). But that game vs Carolina eventually DID go Over (much to our dismay I might add). But that result sets up this: NFL West Time Zone HOME favorites of 13 < points off a ‘West to East’ OVER (RAMS) have gone 9-1 O/U in the last three years….
No query would be complete without look at this particular Week of the Season (Game Two). In this case, a look at the relatively high OVER / UNDER line (52 to 52.5) is certainly warranted. And the results looks good for us OVER bettors… NFL Week Two NON-DIVISION games with a HIGH OU line of 51 or more points (SAINTS @ RAMS) have gone a perfect 90% OVER the Total (9-1 O/U) in the history of our database!