In one of the most shocking developments of the off-season, Andrew Luck retired from the NFL.  Typically a stud QB like that is worth 6-7 points, but the line only moved 3.5, from -3 LAC to -6.5.  The bets were coming in at 65%+ on Indy prior to retirement to now 65%+ on the Chargers.  Clearly, the odds-makers are giving Brissett more credit than a normal backup, while the public is over-reacting to this change at QB.  It’s important to remember that Brissett has now been with the Colts for 3 years, he was the starter in 2017 when Luck sat out injured, and he was the de-facto starter in the offseason, as Luck was recovering from his injuries (prior to the announcement).  This is clearly not a typical scenario where the starter goes down and a backup has to scramble.  Remember, Indy was a really good team, with a strong O-line, good playmakers on offense, and a top-10 defense.  They’re still a very good team, even with Brisset under center.  Chargers were an excellent team last year, and should once again be amongst the league’s best.  But they lost their stud safety Derwin James for the next 3-4 months, their O-line has taken a hit with Okung out for the first 6 weeks (UDFA Trent Scott is protecting Rivers’ blind side), and they’re dealing with a Melvin Gordon holdout.  In addition, Mike Badgley, their starting kicker, just injured his groin on Friday.  Bad O-line play, horrific kicking game, and inability to hold on to leads late in games has plagued the Chargers for years prior to last season.  It’s almost like it’s deja-vu all of a sudden.  Regardless, I would expect a close game here, as I think we’ll see a motivated Colts team in this one.

Good Luck