Thursday, July 18th

#963-964

9:07pm ET / 6:07pm PT

HOUSTON ASTROS w/ Miley @ LOS ANGELES ANGELS w/ Harvey

2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL 

*This is an ACTION Play… No need to specify starting pitchers

We were here in this same spot just two nights ago. On Tuesday, our 2** Play was on OVER 9.5 runs in the ANGELS / ASTROS game. After ONE inning, the score was already 6 to 0! Somehow, we still lost that one by a half run (final score was 7 to 2). We’re not gonna let that Bad Beat scare us away from Thursday’s Game Four of this series. After all, the Astros and Angels have gone a combined 11-2-1 O/U in GAME FOUR of any series. And these two teams have been carrying some hot sticks on offense as of late. They are averaging a combined 13.1 runs per game in their last ten overall… and an even better 15.9 combined runs per 9 innings in their last five overall (prior to the Wednesday Night Game Three).

What really excites us about a potential AL West Division slugfest on Thursday is the Man in Blue. We don’t want to miss any opportunities to bet the OVER when this guy is behind the dish. That guy would be ALAN PORTER. Of the 89 Umpires chi have worked at least one game this season, Porter is the clear-cut NUMBER ONE ‘Over’ Umpire. His year-to-date record is 13-2-1 O/U (87% Overs). Porter is also one of only three MLB Umpires that is still averaging more than 12 combined runs per game on the season (12.3 to be exact). He has an extremely small strike zone… as evidenced by his high average of 8.3 bases on balls per game (2nd MOST out of all 89 Umps). In his last seven games dating back to late May, Porter has gone a PERFECT 6-0-1 O/U… with a gaudy average of 13.7 runs per game. He’s also gone a sharp 4-1 O/U in his last five games on THURSDAYS.

This is an Action Play, so we are betting it REGARDLESS of who actually starts on the mound. But with that said, we love the fact that Los Angeles is roiling out Matt Harvey to get the start. A guy with a 6.88 ERA on the season… who has gone 5-2 O/U in his seven hone starts (with an ERA of 8.91)… and come into this start with an ERA of 7.42 in his last three. He’s one start removed from a horrific ‘4-dong’ start (just 2.2 innings pitched) in which he lost by the score of 16 to 7. He made a start earlier this season vs the hot Astros, and got torched for 5 earned runs in 4 innings pitched in a 10-4 loss. His lifetime ERA vs Houston is an ‘unglaublich’ 16.20! On the flip side, we’ll certainly credit southpaw Wad Miley of Houston for a solid season thus far (13-6 in his team starts with an ERA of 3.32). But he’s been showing some signs of fatigue as of late, along with a tendency for giving up more Gopher Balls. While he’s been extra sharp (and virtually untouchable) at home this year (7-1 with an ERA of 1.86), the road has been a different story (4.50 ERA). And the host Angels have been feasting on lefties as of late (9.7 runs per game on offense last ten vs southpaws).